Yesterday, I devoted 1,400 words or so in response to a claim that St. Louis Rams' QB Sam Bradford's rookie season was vastly overrated. In short, yes, it was overrated, but author making that contention overlooked several important bits of context in a rush to throw cold water on fan and media enthusiasm. 

Background makes all the difference in judging a picture. I'm running too close to empty to delve into critical theory, so I'll spare you the academic lessons...consider yourself lucky. It was kind of ironic, I suppose, that the author of that piece focused on the tendency of people to look mostly at yardage and completions when judging Bradford's rookie season, then ignoring defense-adjusted stats (from an article he cites) showing just how blah the receivers were. And of course there were the coaching issues and the fact that Bradford hadn't really played football the year before being drafted (sort of a them among St. Louis' first round picks the last two years). 

There's another stat comparison the Pro Football Reference author overlooked, a measurement from his own site. In a great post from Smart Football (one we'll talk about again soon), the author makes this catch.

Moreover, the statistics are not all bad. Bradford's 5.4 Adjusted Yards Per Pass Attempt (Pro Football Reference's vaunted quarterback stat), although not great, was better than the rookie number for another highly touted rookie: Peyton Manning only had a 5.2 AY/A in 1998, his rookie season. My point is not that Bradford was 0.2 better than Manning, but instead simply that with young quarterback's it's a guessing game. Remember too that Bradford was coming off a college season where he barely registered any snaps due to injuries, and logic indicates that he's at least on the right direction.

Some people tried to turn this whole overrated argument into the old chestnut of stats versus observation, or whatever the hell you want to call it. That was not at all the point. Context is key to understanding things, stats require context just like any other data, quantified or otherwise. 

If you read Turf Show Times regularly, then you should be familiar with our feelings about St. Louis Rams QB Sam Bradford. We like him. Very much. Of course, anyone anointed the savior of a moribund franchise who does nothing to disprove that in his rookie year, generally tends to get some love from fans. Call us crazy, point to our low standards, but we like watching a QB do something beside get pounded into the ground and throw INTs....oh, the shame. 

That said, I don't think anyone here would put Sam Bradford's Rookie of the Year season on par with the greatest seasons in NFL history, even for rookie quarterbacks. Today at Pro Football Reference there's an article dealing with Sam Bradford's rookie season, putting it into context with other QB performances. "Sam Bradford's rookie season has been incredibly overrated" focuses on Bradford's statistical output, contending that he threw a lot, hence the yardage and record for completions, but the overall impact of Bradford on the Rams' final record was overstated and his statistical performance was more a function of quantity over quality.

In his eagerness to pee on fan enthusiasm, the author of this post misses something, several things really, even while the overall thesis of his argument isn't far off the mark. Let's discuss.

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  This week, the TST crew jumps in the time machine and look back at the stat predictions we made a year ago.  I'm kicking the series off with our predictions for the Predator himself, Steven Jackson.

  In retrospect, Van hit it on the head accurately noting the three keys to Jackson's season -- gameplan, O-line and RB depth, especially on the latter two:

 

• The offensive line - Jackson's been able to get it done with some bad blocking in front of him. Will this year's group be any better? Any healthier? 
• The backup RB situation - The Rams inability to find a more reliable threat to backup Jackson has been a sore point for some. And if Jackson does miss time with injury, it could be a real problem.

  Luckily for the Rams, AxJax avoided major injury, playing in all 16 games.  The hamstring tweak from the Washington game and a finger injury did limit his effectiveness, but the bottom line is that Jackson hadn't played a full 16-game season since 2006.  And we all know about the backup situation, so let's just acknowledge with a nod and move on.

  After the jump, I look at the closest predictions and some other observations.

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When Matt Williamson from ESPN dropped his list of the top 15 players in the NFC West, he probably had no idea of the mileage he would get out of it. Actually, he probably did, or at least his editors did. And that's ok, thoughtful lists that provoke good debates are valuable unlike the flotsam and jetsam of random slideshows engineered for nothing more than page views.

Williamson's list sure did raise the hackles of St. Louis Rams fans, most notably for leaving RB Steven Jackson off the list. To try and paint another picture of the list, I went back and looked at the players on there using a could of statistical measures, giving us a way to compare the players with Jackson and other Rams with a flat, more objective view of things. 

The list and more evidence that maybe Jackson did in fact belong there, after the jump.

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Kansas City Chiefs punter Dustin Colquitt told a Denver sports talk radio station today that Chiefs head coach Todd Haley thought then Denver Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels was cheating. According to Colquitt, that motivated Haley's famous finger pointing incident after the Chiefs' loss to the Broncos in week 10 last year. Two weeks later, the St. Louis Rams beat the Broncos, a week later, after a loss to the Chiefs, McDaniels was fired. 

Haley believed that the 49-29 loss at the hands of McDaniels' Donkeys was impossible. The Kansas City head coach felt like McDaniels knew his game plan ahead of time, based on how things unfolded on the field that week. 

Given McDaniels' history with SpyGate, Haley could have easily jumped to that conclusion. Plus, you never know how the rumor mill works around the league. The Denver Post hadn't yet broken the Broncos' videotaping scandal yet, which involved taping a walkthrough of the 49ers before their London game. 

Looking back at the box score, Denver, playing at home, did jump out to a 21 point lead over the Chiefs by the end of the first quarter. They also used Tim Tebow for a rushing and receiving touchdown to go with Kyle Orton's 4 TD passes. They also scored a TD on a fumble return in the second quarter. McDaniels also had plenty of familiarity with KC's quarterback, Matt Cassel. 

Who knows what happened. I'm not a huge fan of Todd Haley, but McDaniels' history with the video camera would have been hard to dismiss. And, things change on a weekly basis in the NFL. 

McDaniels landed in the perfect spot to rehabilitate his image, answering to straight arrow Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo. Oh, and he also has a pretty talented QB to work with in Sam Bradford. 

  Van kept the season recap going last week with the Week 2 game against the Raiders.  If masochism is your thing, just read it a couple times.  It's the kind of road game playoff teams win.  That the Rams lost that game in the fashion they did set up a pivotal week 3 home contest against the Washington Redskins.

  Think about the momentum.  A 1-15 2009 season.  An 0-2 start even with wonderboy Sam Bradford at the helm.  Pat Shurmur's insomnia-killing offense.  Things weren't moving in the right direction.

  The Rams would go on to beat the Redskins handily in front of an agitated home crowd.  Despite losing Steven Jackson in the 2nd quarter to a groin injury (photo evidence in the breakdown), the Rams would grind out the game on the ground.  Two weeks after the Rams posted a 55/24 pass/run ratio, it was all about balance against the Redskins.  By the final whistle, the Rams had passed the ball 37 times and run it 37 times as well.

  A look at how it went down after the jump.

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  So the 1st half breakdown was a little time-intense.  I'm going to try a different format this time.  Let me know what works and what jerks.  My plan is to follow this format up with a mini-PBP type piece to get photos/videos of the half for everyone to go through themselves on either a specific matchup or a player or formation or something of specific interest.

Rams, 15:00 3Q (STL 10 - ARI 10)

 - Adam Goldberg never engages Paris Lenon on a strongside run.  Good push from offensive line, but lane never materializes.

 - Second down's even worse, as both tackles (LT Rodger Saffold and RT Jason Smith) both whiff on a strong Cardinals blitz.  For all the talk about how Steven Jackson is slipping from his peak, the fact that he rarely enjoys the kinds of room that other top producers (Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Michael Turner) do doesn't get the same attention.  Hard to stand out when you're running into this:

  Good night, and good luck.

 - Checkdown to Jackson on 3rd down ends the drive.  Nice punt from Donnie Jones, and rookie Max Komar begins a second half run of dropsies on the punt.  Immediately falls on it, though.

The rest of the second half from the week 1 meeting between the St. Louis Rams and Arizona Cardinals after the jump.

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  So I'm going to try to run through these as quickly as possible to get through the season before The Great Flood of Free Agents hits, and all other efforts die a swift death.  It won't happen, but hopefully we'll get all 16 games in at some point.

  The format I'm going with is pretty simple (NOTE from the end of the story: This format took way too damn long, so something's got to give for the second half).  I'll drop notes on each series, pick a key play and an overlooked play with a few extra resource sprinkled in here and there.  If you guys have any suggestions, you know I'm all ears.  Leggo.

Cardinals, 15:00 1Q (STL 0 - ARI 0)

  - After two relatively unimportant plays to open the game, 3rd and 5 is a huge early play.  Larry Fitzgerald comes in motion, and Ron Bartell hands the assignment to Kevin Dockery as Fitzgerald cross the field pre-snap.  Lined up just outside the right hash mark with a 5-yard cushion, Fitzgerald has noone to his outside.  Derek Anderson hits him on the out, and Fitzgerald races up the sideline for 18 yards.  Photo breakdown

  Even though Fitzgerald is outside of Early Doucet, Dockery is inside of Bradley Fletcher.  Not a good start.  Also notice Chris Long is a beast.  That's how you come off the ball if...

...you want pressure off the edge like this.  Back to Fitzgerald and Dockery, though; Dockery, because of his poor positioning, is caught between pursuing Fitzgerald toward the sideline or backing up downfield.  His hesitancy allows Fitzgerald to turn with plenty of room to the outside.

  Dockery tries to scramble back in position, but once he does, he's too late.  By the time he regains coverage and turns his head to spot the ball, it's already in Fitzgerald's hands.  In this picture, you can see Dockery looking back for the ball and FItzgerald eying the ball into his hands.

  And away we go...

 - On that 3rd down play, James Laurinaitis came up the middle on the blitz.  On the ensuing first down, both he and Bartell blitz, with Chris Long dropping into coverage.  It's an unlucky play call, as Tim Hightower jumps behind Long into space.  Anderson easily drops the ball off before the blitz gets to him, and Hightower springs free for another 17.

 - The Rams did a solid job clogging up running lanes in this series, allowing just 8 yards on 3 runs.

 - The final play is also the key play in the series, and it's one Rams fans might remember well.  At the Rams' 22 on 2nd & 8, O.J. Atogwe blitzes and tracks down Hightower from behind, stripping the ball in the process.  Fletcher picks it up and takes it all the way down to the Arizona 32 where he's caught from behind by Steve Breaston (who is inarguably the player of this game).

Key stats on series: Three Cardinals runs for 8 yards.  Anderson 4-4 on opening drive.  Laurinaitis blitzed on three of those four passes.

Key play of series: The aforementioned fumble return.  VTRamsFan expertly broke the play down after the game.

Overlooked play of series: The third down conversion to Fitzgerald.  It was his only catch of the first half and one of just three in the game.

The rest of the first half after the jump

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