The St. Louis Rams dropped another game, their 11th of the season, and a one-win season is now all but inevitable. The Bears had one of the league's worst offenses, a unit as lackluster as the Rams over the last few seasons, and an injury-depleted defense, but they had no problems breaking their four game skid against a banged up and talentless Rams team. It was, once again, a tough week to be a Rams fan.

What can you really say here? There were a few highpoints for the Rams and you could genuinely see that the players were competing with their all. Kyle Boller, Marc Bulger, it doesn't matter, this is the worst offense St. Louis has seen since the days of Tony Banks, who still might be a better option than either of the B boys under center. With the lone exception of Steven Jackson the Rams have no player opponents have to respect or fear on the field, and that makes it even easier to hold the Rams offense in check.

I know we have a range of opinions on what direction the Rams should take in the draft. I am firmly convinced this team needs players who can make a difference on offense, hell, players who can at least play. It's going to stay ugly - no matter who you've got on the other side of the ball - when you run the kind of offense that has scored but a single first-quarter touchdown all season. Steven Jackson should demand a trade if the Rams don't do something big on offense. His legs will fall off.

Speaking of Jackson...truly the man is a hero, a shrugging Atlas who somehow grinds his way through defenses. You can tell the offensive line is not firing on all cylinders in its current configuration. They really peaked when Jason Smith did on the right side. Now, the toll they bear is starting to show and I wonder who'll get injured next. If you believe in any sort of cosmic justice Alex Barron will be on the bench for whatever reason and Jason Smith will be at LT. There's a cruel irony in the fact that Alex Barron has been so healthy through his career. Does this guy even think about football when he plays? If Bulger and Barron are even in camp next year, someone in authority has to be held accountable. 

I'm so pissed off. Every Sunday. I can't believe people even still come by this site right now. Mercy! We keep playing and its only (mostly) guys who the Rams genuinely do need beyond this trip through hell that keep getting hurt. Ugh. 

As the 0-7 anger festers inside of me, I found a few quotes by the players (and some from STLToday.com analysts) that I wanted to talk about. Starting with the first, which we will call, "the quote of the last three years."

We just didn't fight as hard in the fourth quarter as we had in the previous three, which is a little disappointing

This gem comes from O.J. Atogwe. As a fan, I'd be a little disappointed if my team gave up too. This team has no fire. A little disappointed? Why any player would say this to a reporter is beyond me, but just hearing it and getting it confirmed just disgusts me. Take it easy guys, you're not going to win when you are horrible, no matter how much you try. No coach can turn this team into a winner when they don't even play the whole game.

Here is another passively laden quote by Randy McMichael:

Usually when we do something that sets us back, we end up coming off the field for a punt or something.

Thanks Randy, like we didn't already know. Or something? That is the best way you can describe it?

 Jackson dropping a swing pass while Alex Barron was being flagged for holding.

The hapless Barron getting flagged for a false start penalty to help kill another drive.

That came from Jeff Gordon at STLtoday.com. I can understand having faith in your players Spags', but if you and Billy Devaney decide to resign him, then just resign. If you don't, please seriously consider trading away the first round pick we have. Jason Smith is being outplayed by Michael Oher (injury or no injury). I remember seeing his name going to the Rams early in the mock draft season. If you wanted to see character, look into his story. Tom Lemming, a ESPN analyst who helps choose the All-American Team said this about him:

Michael Oher’s athletic ability and his body — the only thing you could compare it to was Orlando Pace

Oh vey. Talk about an overreaction Tuesday.

Yeah, it was a much better game for the St. Louis Rams. They competed and took a 10-point favorite down to the wire. 

But they still lost. As relieved as I am by the fact that they played better football, I'm tired of losing. Now, it's time to get in the win column.

Here are some game photos to relive the memories. Click on the photo above for the full gallery.

The St. Louis Rams lost another first round pick, this time to a knee injury rather than to roster trimming. Starting RT Jason Smith, the Rams first round pick and second overall this year, left the game in the second quarter and did not return. 

He'll have an MRI on his injury tomorrow. Smith's status is unknown.

Adam Goldberg some in for Smith and performed well enough. If Smith ends up out for an extended period of time, the Rams will have tapped out  their depth at a key position. 

Third down, red zone, goal-to-go...offensive shortcomings in those situations often get bandied about as a main culprit for a team's struggles. What an offense does on first and second down might be more important, in terms of consistency and setting up more frequent opportunities for third downs and/or an extra set of downs, the things that move a team down the field and get them closer to the scoring. First and second down performance, in fact, is a better predictor of a team's consistency and future success than the less frequent, more volatile third down situations. (More on this notion at Football Outsiders). So what about the Rams offense on first and second downs?

First of all, let's start with one caveat to any analysis of the Rams 2007 or 2008 performance: they were so bad, ALL of their numbers stink. That said, I think it's worth a look at the team's offensive performance on first and second down because it does shed some light on their struggles. Here are the offensive numbers from 2008 using DVOA, courtesy of FO's premium database, broken out by rush and pass plays with league rank in parentheses. (Quickly, DVOA measures performance compared to average and adjusted for opponents, i.e. a -23.9% DVOA on first down means that the Rams were 23.9% less successful than an average team on first downs. More on DVOA here.) 

Yikes! Those aren't good numbers, as if you needed anyone to tell you that. Essentially what happened here is that the Rams were so bad on first and second downs, they're not even giving themselves enough chances to consistently bungle it on third downs, where they actually had some (all things being relative) greater success, like an 8.4% DVOA on 3rd/4th down runs.

Some further explanation about what constitutes success on each down, from FO: "On first down, a play is considered a success if it gains 45 percent of needed yards; on second down, a play needs to gain 60 percent of needed yards; on third or fourth down, only gaining a new first down is considered success."

Because the Rams failed to gain the needed yardage on early downs, they consistently set themselves up for predictable plays that were easily stopped thanks to weaknesses on the offensive line and elsewhere. Let's look at an example from the Rams week 15 20-23 heartbreaker against the Seahags at the Dome. Forth quarter, Rams lead 20-13. continuing their drive from the third quarter, the Rams make it to the Seattle 29. On 1st-and-10, Bulger completes a pass to Avery for no gain. Next, it's a handoff to Jackson, up the notoriously weak middle for a one-yard loss. Third-and-11 is a tough enough position for the Rams offense, which had a -18.4% DVOA on third downs last year, but a holding call on Incognito makes it 3rd-and-21. Bulger does complete an 11-yard pass to Avery (telling since the Rams had a DVOA of -4.1% on 3rd-and-long, their best percentage of all 3rd down situations), but it's only enough to put them in field goal range. Seattle goes on to score a TD and a FG to win it.

Now, let's reconsider that sequence from the alternative universe perspective. Say the Rams are successful on first down, and gain five yards. That opens up more plays for the Rams, and leaves the Seahawks guessing as to what's coming. Obviously, that doesn't automatically mean that they would have scored there - there's still that pesky poor second down success rate - but it definitely would have increased the chances for a more favorable outcome.

As for finding the reasons for the Rams struggles on first and second downs, you can pretty much point to the usual culprits: poor line play, playcalling, problems with the QB, lack of quality options at the skill positions, etc. The Rams have taken steps to address these factors, from upgrading the personnel on the line, installing a new offense, yada, yada, yada... Will it work? Stay tuned.

One game does not a season a make...or something like that. Rams QB Marc Bulger got more than his fair share of criticism last season, some of it well-earned, for a Rams offense that consistently struggled. However, as the season wound down and the impetus to win, if only to save jobs, increased, Bulger flashed some glimpses of his old self. One game in particular stands out: the Rams 27-31 loss to the Atlanta Falcons to close out the season. 

That was the second highest points scored total for the Rams that season (though it was the ninth time the defense allowed 30+ points). Unlike the 34 points they put up against Dallas, the week 17 game featured both Steven Jackson tearing up the field and an effective passing game. Bulger, despite being sacked three times for the second week in a row completed 19 of 32 passing attempts for 230 yards, one TD (a 16-yarder to Avery), no INTs, and a QB rating of 91.9, his best all season. 

In his post-game grades, 3k gave an A- to Bulger, and summed up his performance this way:

At times this season, he has looked absolutely awful.  Today, he showed the kind of presence that made him so reliable in years past.  After a horrible first series and a pair of errant throws in the first half, he turned into the kind of field general teams need their quarterbacks to be.  19 for 32 for 230 yards and a TD, including some very difficult throws; it was the kind of game you want to expect out of Bulger at a minimum... Bottom line: Bulger was a legitimate QB today.

That horrible first series 3k mentions ended on 3rd and 9 with Bulger sacked for a loss of 6 yards. Sadly enough, that was the least costly of the three times Bulger was sacked that day. The second sack came in the second quarter, Rams leading 7-3, and trying to convert a 4th and 3 at the Atlanta 34-yard-line. The Falcons would score on the resulting possession. The third sack came in the fourth quarter, Rams down 31-27, final Rams possession of the game. After a touchback, Bulger led the offense up the field quickly, completing a 29-yard pass to Joe Klopfenstein (?) and two Steven Jackson runs, both out of the shotgun on 1st and 10, for 22 yards. That set up 2nd and 2 when Chauncey Davis sacked him for a loss of 8. From there, it was two incomplete passes for an unceremonious end to the game.

The Rams had 15 third downs in that game, and called a passing play on 10 of those. Bulger was sacked on one of those plays, the very first drive. Of those passing plays, they converted the third down four times. Bulger completed another two passes on third down, both short passes to running back who had defenders in their face before they were able to eek out any more than a single yard. On 8 of those third downs, the Rams found themselves with 5 or more yards to go, they converted three of those attempts, each with a passing play. 

Something else that stands out in reading the play-by-play from this game is the centrality of the running game and breaking that up with passing plays of short to moderate distances, i.e. not many attempts for more than 20 yards. Though they'll call it something else and there'll be subtle differences in things like the way receivers run their routes, that approach is very similar to what the Rams have planned for the offense this year, only they hope to add in some better blocking with additions like C Jason Brown and FB Mike Karney. 

Over the Rams last four games, Bulger earned his two highest QB ratings of the season: the 91.9 against the Falcons and an 88.9 against the Seahawks in week 15. During those four games he completed 79 of 137 passes, threw 4 TDs and 2 INTs while being sacked 8 times. 

It's not wise to judge Marc Bulger's readiness based on one game, or even the last quarter of the season. There are, however, some hopeful signs to take away from this, things that could indicate to us that Bulger's career isn't quite as over as some like think. Pair that with some evidence that he can play at a solid level, with better supporting characters, in the run-first offense being installed. Now, that's not to say there won't be hiccups as Bulger and others learn the playbook, and you can still make the case that the Rams are overpaying for average QB play. Nevertheless, especially since you can't rewrite the contracts, there's enough here to make a reasonable case for Bulger with the 2009 season looming just beyond the summer. 

Forty tackles, four sacks. Not terrible numbers for a defensive end, but not what the Rams were hoping for when they took Chris Long with the second overall pick out of Virginia last April. Were St. Louis fans right to expect big things from Long right away? And can we expect a big jump from Long in his sophomore season?

In their "Four Downs" series focused on the NFC West today, Football Outsiders spends some time looking at Chris Long's rookie year results and what we might expect from the DE in his sophomore season.

As you would expect from FO, it's a great analysis, but I have just one tiny qualm with it. Long and the rest of the D-line saw their production suffer because of the Rams lack of size in the middle, something we discuss here almost every day for a long time. Without a DT commanding double blockers, opponents can have an extra offensive lineman to block pass rushers. Without a presence in the middle, the edges get dulled. It's really that simple.

The great thing about Chris Long is his devotion to the game, his constant drive to play better. By all accounts Long spent a considerable amount of time in the video room, finding ways to improve his play and learn the in-and-outs, ups-and-downs of the pro game. Dedication doesn't make a superstar, but it really does make a better, more consistent player. If the Rams address the glaring need in the middle of the defense, they'll get more production from Long, Little, Carriker, etc.

The only thing more notorious than the Rams offense's red zone performance was their performance on third down. Just how bad was it?

Let me throw out a number for you: 32%. The Rams converted 69 of 216 3rd downs. That was the fourth worst 3rd down percentage in the league, behind such luminaries as Detroit, Seattle and Oakland. In terms of DVOA the Rams fared better, slightly, putting up a -18.4% mark on 3rd down, 26th in the league (they were actually the worst on in the league on 1st downs, per DVOA).

That tells part of the story. Of those 216 attempts on 3rd downs, the Rams had more than 5 yards to go on 131 of them, converting 28 of those. They had more than 10 yards to go 51 times, converting 8 of them.

The success rate on running plays is a little deceiving. On 3rd downs with between 3 and 5 yards to go, the Rams ran the ball 6 times, converting 4, and passed 39 times, converting 16. Without McMichael and the screen pass not really working until late in the season, I'm stupefied as to why the Rams elected to pass 87% of the time with 3-5 yards to go on third down. Wanna know something even crazier? With 2 yards or less the Rams ran it 23 times, converting 14 (61%), and passed the ball 17 times, converting just 7. Why? That explains the Rams -21.9% DVOA on 3rd and short (ranked 28th) and -26.6% DVOA on 3rd and mid, 4-6 yards (ranked 27th).

Obviously, the play calling takes some of the blame. I understand the need to switch things up and confuse a defense that's planning for the run on 3rd down and less than 5 yards, but passing two-thirds of the time with offense struggling with its passing game - for various reasons - just doesn't make sense. The pass play with 3-5 yards to go are more understandable than the almost 50/50 split with 2 or less yards to go. 

It also points out some of the more obvious holes in the Rams offense. Though there's nothing here indicating the number of times the QB was sacked or hurried on those plays, it's not a leap to point out what a problem that was after watching the games this season. And then there's the personnel. Yes, the rushing numbers on third down look OK, but when you consider the many of the league's best teams converted rushing 3rd downs between 1-2 yards with a 70%+ conversion rate, you can see the problems the Rams had with blocking. The Rams, remember, converted 61% of those plays, certainly nothing special. 

Personnel issues, obviously, played a role here. Steven Jackson missed time, and the Rams never had much in the way of a blocking fullback. Dan Kreider seemed like a good move, but he just wasn't over his knee issues. Missing a FB contributed to the poor results on the screen pass too, a play that would have helped tremendously in so many of those 3rd down situations. 

Addressing the O-line, having McMichael back, and finding a FB (Brian Leonard doesn't fit the bill) would go a long way toward fixing the Rams 3rd down issues, a must if the team expects to compete .