Training Camp Preview (offense)
The first practice of the Rams' training camp is a week away. It's tough to get from the final days of April, which host the draft, to the end of July which awakens the football fans who have slept through the summer.
But now we're here, close enough to start looking at some of the storylines we should be following as Rams fans, storylines that hint at whatever destiny awaits us over the next 5 months of this NFL season.
Position breakdowns after the fold.
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Friday Fantasy Tipsheet: Torry Holt and Al Saunders
We know Randy McMichael's in for a career resurgence under new offensive coordinator Al Saunders. We also know that Steven Jackson figures to be the Rams offensive weapon of choice, the second coming of Preist Holmes and LT all rolled into a top four fantasy draft pick.
But what about Torry Holt? We know he's healthy coming into this season, but we almost take it for granted that he'll put up 1000+ yards and 7 or so TDs. But with Al Saunders running the offense now, questions about Holt's value, real and fantasy, have emerged. Check out this line from Fox Sports in their WR rankings that appeared today:
Still, Saunders failed to produce prodigious fantasy receivers with ensuing stints in Kansas City and Washington. So the jury's still out on whether he will boost Holt's stats.
It's true. In Saunders' last two stints prior to coming to St. Louis - 2001-05 in KC and '06 & '07 in Washington - the tight ends' stats ranked right up there with the teams' wide receivers' numbers. Last season in Washington, Chris Cooley led the team in catches and receiving TDs and had just 22 fewer yards than team leader Santana Moss. Don't forget, Washington's QB situation was a mess during Saunders' time there. With the Chiefs, Gonzalez led the team in receiving in all but two seasons during Saunders' stint there, when Eddie Kennison edged him out
Now, compare Torry Holt with Moss and Kennison. The later two are solid, but have never been on the same tier as Holt, who had his breakthrough season in 2000 with, who else, Al Saunders coaching Rams wide receivers.
But what about this year? Obviously, the predictions for Jackson and McMichael are spot on, each gives the Rams a unique weapon. But don't relegate Torry Holt to the status of a mere possession receiver. For a parallel, or as close of one as you can get, look to the 2006 season. Jackson had numbers consistent with what we might expect from his this season, big totals in rushing and receiving (90 catches, 800+ yards, 3 TDs) categories. The biggest difference was the lack of a TE that season. Holt had 93 catches for 1188 yards and 10 TDs. Bruce had 74 rec, 1098 yards and 3 TDs. This season, I would expect Jackson and McMichael to pick up some of the catches once reserved for Isaac Bruce, with Bennett, Avery and Burton getting a share too.
Thoughts on Holt's role in the Al Saunders' led offense?
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Who previews the previews?
RotoWorld has it's minicamp tour of the NFC West up at their site. They penned it mostly from a fantasy perspective, but that's a decent way to get some insight on teams this time of year.
Items of interest pertaining to the Rams:
- They report that Torry Holt "appears to be healthy" heading into the season, which is consistent with earlier reports on Holt's status. Needless to say, the Rams need a healthy Holt, both because of his ability and his ability to get draw coverage and leave other WR threats open.
- Speaking of those other threats, RotoWorld's assessment doesn't dog Drew Bennett quite like the others. They think he'll get plenty of catches.
- Steven Jackson gets the usual effusive praise. They include a cautious notes about an injury to Pace and the precarious state of the O-line, but I think they're overestimating that threat for a couple reasons. 1) With the addition of Jacob Bell, the middle of the field should be a much friendlier place to run than it was last season with the parade of replacements, 2) while anything's possible, the likelihood of the Rams suffering an injury epidemic on the O-line again is very slight.
- It's becoming widely accepted fact that McMichael's in for a good season with Al Saunders calling the plays.
Nothing out of the ordinary there as far as the Rams go, but I did find a note about Mike Martz interesting in the review. Long time Rams fans won't recall any big seasons for tight ends under Martz. In fact, prior to last season when Randy McMichael had 39 catches, 431 yards and 3 TDs (considered a disappointment and the fewest balls McMichael has caught since his rookie season in '02), the last time a Rams TE had more than 35 catches was in 2001 when Ernie Conwell had 38 catches, 441 yards and 4 TDs.
Seems Martz has changed his tune since arriving in SF. With the 49ers, Martz plans to use TE Vernon Davis as a receiver. Here's what Mad Mike had to say:
"Instead of breaking down and head-faking and doing all these things, we're going to use his speed. And I think he understands that really well at this point."
I suppose that's a big part of their plan given that old friend Isaac Bruce has been thrust into the #1 WR role in SF. Davis will have to get around Chris Long first.
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Answering questions
ESPN has a post-draft, pre training camp feature up for the NFC West, with Mike Sando's piece on the Rams appearing today.
Concurring with the sentiments of so many Rams fans (myself included), Sando notes the team's most important offseason acquisition is new Offensive Coordinator Al Saunders. Combining Saunders' proven ability to turn out productive offenses with top flight talent like Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson instantly makes the Rams a competitive force in the NFC West.
The question, in Sando's mind is the Rams situation at WR, with big questions marks about Holt's knee, Bennett's seemingly lost ability, and a group of rookies behind them. It's a legitimate concern, and one we won't be able to put to rest until we're into the season. For now, let's try to allay some of those concerns, in bullet points.
- Holt's knee was balky last year, and he still managed to start all 16 games and make 93 catches for 1198 yards, virtually mirroring his 2006 season. He is a year older, 32 now, but has had time to recover in the offseason. I think the question is less about whether or not Holt can still perform at an elite level, but whether or not the Rams have enough other receiving weapons to keep Holt out of permanent double team.
- Holt's also playing out the last two years on his contract, and will be looking for a big payday when the cap-less 2010 season rolls around, potentially for a move to Carolina.
- Bennett has seen his number of catches and yards decline each season since 2004. But the 2005 and 2006 seasons in TEN, as well as last season with the Rams, featured offenses in turmoil. Back in April, we noted that Bennett, on a per play basis, actually improved in 2006 over the season prior.
- For a rookie WR, if learning an NFL playbook is hard enough, learning the Al Saunders playbook must be truly daunting. The trick will be to get Keenan Burton and Donnie Avery familiar with enough plays to make them viable. Avery has the tools to be a deep threat, and Burton could be a decent option in the middle.
- Al Saunders also has a pretty good track record with rookie WRs. As a WRs coach with the Rams in 1999, a rookie Torry Holt picked up 788 yards on 52 catches and scored 6 TDs. Granted the 1999 team was something special, but the Rams made Marshall Faulk their top receiving threat - he led the team with 87 catches and was second to Bruce in receiving yards. Don't discount the plans to make Steven Jackson into a similar pass catching threat.
- With the o-line settled and a true blocking TE in Anthony Becht, Randy McMichael will run a lot more routes. For comparison's sake, think of what Saunders did in KC with his RB, TE Tony Gonzalez, and Eddie Kennison as the top WR.
There's still plenty of 'ifs' with the Rams offense, too many to make any bold predictions, but the tools are also there to compete.
Want more assurance? Al Saunders' Cheifs went from worst to first in their division in 2003, and every year since at least one NFL team has done the same thing. At least one person thinks the Rams could be that team in 2008.
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Leonard in the middle
I thought of something this morning, something about Brian Leonard's role in the Rams Al Saunders' led offense.
(Yes, I think about Brian Leonard while I'm driving to work.)
So far, much of the talk about Saunder's breath of fresh air in the Rams offense ahs revolved around the big expectations from Steven Jackson, Marc Bulger, and a new life for Randy McMichael. Not much about Brian Leonard, other than that he's bulking up and is expected to do more lead blocking. And that's it, right?
Maybe not. A big part of Saunders' offensive systems is creating mismatches in the middle. Getting a strong pass catcher who overmatches the linebackers into the middle of the field forces teams to cover that receiver with a safety and leave the corners somewhat exposed. That role has traditionally been reserved for a meaty tight end under Saunders, think Tony Gonzalez or to a lesser extent Chris Cooley, and McMichael will still get plenty of looks in the middle of the field. But McMichael's strength is route running, and he'll see a lot of his work down the field, behind the linebackers, similar to Chris Cooley, who wasn't often used banging around with middle linebackers for jump balls.
Another player used in a similar role, albeit not under Al Saunders, was our very own Marshall Faulk. Obviously, Steven Jackson, who compares favorably to the great Marshall Faulk, will be doing some of that. A beefier Leonard, who has pass catching skills, could also fit that more specific role well, and save some ware and tear on the Rams feature back (remember, Saunder's running backs have a history of injury - Priest Holmes, Clinton Portis) who figures to be quite an investment once the Rams get a deal done.
Remember, the NFC West features some top tier linebackers with guys like Tatupu in Seattle and Willis in SF who know how to play the game. Brining in Brian Leonard to threaten the middle of the field on a few plays, and eventually forcing defenses to react to his presence, thereby opening up more room for other receviers.
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Friday Fantasy Tipsheet: Randy McMichael
What, you're not thinking about fantasy football yet? It's almost June, no tme like the present, huh?
This week's inaugural edition of what I intend to make a regular feature in during the season is all about Randy McMichael.
Quick, what to Chris Cooley and Tony Gonzalez have in common? They're both tight ends who became fantasy studs under offensive coordinator Al Saunders. In case you've been holed up in your very own undisclosed location, you know that Al Saunders is now the Rams offensive coordinator.
As your draft snakes around and the rush on tight ends gets underway, hold off. Use that pick to take a extra running back or whoever the best player available at that point is, and draft McMichael a round or two later. Saunders' playbook uses a tight end to catch a lot of balls just beyond the action at the line of scrimmage as opposing defenses stack the box anticipating a Steven Jackson run.
Don't be surprised to see numbers similar to a #2 wide receiver, which is essentiall what Saunders uses his TE as, for Randy McMichael. After a disappointing first season in St. Louis, McMichael knew what was in store as soon as he heard the news about Saunders coming on board. He's ready and the Rams will need him to be as questions about Drew Bennett linger and rookies Donnie Avery and Keenan Burton get used to the NFL game.
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An early look at the uncapped 2010 season in St. Louis
The mere thought of playing without a salary cap in 2010 evokes images of the Wild West, anything goes to the highest bidder. Fortunately, the decision to opt out of the CBA triggered a number of rules and restrictions to keep the Cowboys from turning into the Yankees of the NFL that season. John Clayton has a nice summary over at ESPN , but here's the gist of it. Teams get an extra transition tag for a player, allowing to keep an extra fee agent along with the franchise tag. Players will need to have six years of service in the league, rather than the usual four, before they can become unrestricted free agents. That will make it easier for teams to keep their younger players via restricted free agency. And to keep the top teams from piling up the talent, teams that play for the conference championship for the '09 season won't be allowed to sign unrestricted free agents until they lose one of their own UFA, and the other, less fortunate playoff teams will face additional restrictions on free agency as well.
With the new rules, some teams are in better shape than others, as pointed out in the Clayton article. That got me curious about the Rams; how are they set when 2010 rolls around? Fortunately, the Rams are in a good spot, with only a few free potential free agent casualties.
Alex Barron - His contract with the Rams ends in 2009, but that will only be his fifth season in the league. Clearly, Barron's playing for his future this season as it is, but should he start to live up to his promise, he'd be a restricted free agent ahead of the 2010 season, meaning the Rams can tender him an offer just above his previous year's salary ($1.233 million for Barron) and get first right of refusal and a compensatory draft pick for his services. Besides, how Barron responds this season, much will depend on how John Greco develops as a potential replacement. Orlando Pace, who's under contract through 2011, probably can't be counted on in 2010, meaning the Rams will need Barron and Greco to emerge OR find another OT in the next two drafts.
Torry Holt - Holt's status as of 2010 has already received endless speculation. It's probably safe to assume that he won't be back in 2010, and use the capless year to cash in on free agency as he enters his age 33 season. The Rams expect Donnie Avery and Keenan Burton to blossom in the coming seasons to replace Holt.
Randy McMichael - Another contract that ends after 2009. McMichael will be 30 for hte 2010 season, hardly too old to contribute. Will the Rams look for TE talent in the draft before then? Their recent track record drafting TEs hasn't been spectacular, so should they?
Leonard Little - By 2010, Chris Long will be the Rams stand out DE, and they'll likely have to add another speedy pass rushing DE before the 2010 season, as Little will turn 36 early that season anyway.
Claude Wroten - Reportedly this offseason's workout warrior, the former LSU DT says he ready to get serious about the game. His contract ends after the 2009 season, but he won't have enough time in under the new rules to be an unrestricted free agent. Like Barron, the Rams can chose to tender him an offer as a restricted free agent in 2010. Just how far he comes in living up to his potential will determine what that offer is, if there's one at all.
Some of the names on this list get top billing on the marquee to be sure. Recent draftees should grow to replace two of the biggest names on the list, Holt and Little. Losing McMichael will be a concern, as he figures to be a prominent part of the Al Saunders offense. The Rams will have the option of attempting to sign him to an extension ahead of that time, competitively bid on the UFA, or seek a replacement through the draft or free agency. As for the rest of the roster, we're pretty young in the right places, particularly on defense, and have our starters under contract through the uncapped season. There will be age concerns about some of the players we do have under contract, but with two more drafts between now and then, the Rams should be able to find the next generation of talent to fill those shoes.
In between now and the 2010 free agent season the Rams will have some big contract issues to deal with. We mentioned the LT situation above, but their current candidates for center and right guard will be looking for contracts before then. Like Greco, if Roy Schuening emerges - and there are those that think he has the talent to play now - that leaves only the starting center role to be filled for 2009. There's also the 2,000 lbs gorilla in the room, Steven Jackson, who's contract expires after this season.
Still, it's refreshing to see that the Rams won't be completely SOL when the uncapped 2010 rolls around.
Don't forget to make your voice and projections heard in the great Chris Long vs. Glenn Dorsey projection showdown!
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Al Saunders: matchmaker
Ok, start turning over rocks, look in your closets, etc. we've got to find some football to talk about. Between dragging out the Super Bowl to February, the Pro Bowl, training camps, and the draft, the NFL made almost every month of the year interesting to the fans. They extended the season for me and you and all those hard working outfits that sell the things you need to have as a fan. It's almost a year round game. Almost. We've entered the dry spell, left to drift like a loney sailor at sea with nobody but his scroungy ship mates to catch his eye. Argh. It's a long slough 'til July maties, but I think we can make it. Tomorrow, we'll kick off the TST fan projection series, wherein we collectively posit the numbers for a key Rams player...similar to what you've seen 'round the internets with baseball fan projections. Anyway, more on that tomorrow. Here's a few links for a slow Monday.
Lost, somewhat, in all this talk about how many sacks Chris Long will or won't have in his frist season with the Rams is informed speculation about how often Haslett will employ the 3-4 that served the Rams so well last season. Yes, the Rams now have two studs to start at DE in a healthy Leonard Little and second overall pick Long, but Long's a rookie and Little's long in the tooth and will need to be kept fresh by not playing each and every snap. And, and, and...it would be foolish not to use a scheme that was so successful against the pass last season.
I can't imagine we've seen the last 3-4 set with a play ending in a Will Witherspoon sack. Haslett, as you know, likes to mix up his play calls. Bringing out the 3-4 with Wtiherspoon featured as a rushing LB will keep opponents honest and fans happy. It also might make Will Witherspoon as vrey, very rich man when his contract with the Rams ends in 2011. You see, in resolving the Terrell Suggs situation in Baltimore, the league created the "defensive end-linebacker" franchise designatio n, whereas prior to that a pass rusher was either a DE or a LB, which was not a technicality given the disparity in salary attached to either position. Anyway, the more Witherspoon plays as a pass rusher, the more claim he has to that mantle come contract time.
Of course, with the collective bargaining agreement now looking like it might lapse in 2011 , it could be dead issue anyway.
I tried to forget, but reminders that the Rams scored just five rushing touch downs last season just keep appearing. That's likely to change this season. Mike Sando at ESPN takes a look at the Al Saunders/Steven Jackson offensive match made in heaven.
The PD looks at the Al Saunders/Randy McMichael match made in heaven.
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