Last minute shopping
Last day of June. The summer races by and that means we're now less than a month away from the start of training camp. Be prepared, the last leg of the journey is usually the longest.
Outside of their recent interest in Barry Sims, the Rams finished their offseason shopping with the signing of third QB Gradkowski. Are we satisfied they've made the right moves? Is that all they need to/can do heading into the season?
Reading about Kevin Jones working out for teams this weekend got me thinking about any other player acquisitions I might like to see the Rams make before the season starts. I couldn't come up with much off the top of my head, so thought it would be worth a Monday morning discussion to make sure we feel like the bases are covered, or at least as covered as they can be a month out from camp.
Position by position...
Offensive Line
With Pace healthy and high profile free agent Jacob Bell inked and ready to start, the left side of the Rams line is set. Incognito and Romberg will battle it out in the middle and Setterstrom and Barron will hold down the right side. Incognito and Setterstrom have done yeoman work filling in for injured starters the last two seasons, and since they both dealt with injuries last season, neither has reached their ceiling. The Rams intend to push those three, Setts, Cogs and Barron, to their ceiling, and with a couple hungry rookies, John Greco and Roy Schuening, who in the minds of some could start right away at G in the NFL, will do the pushing. Adding Barry Sims to compete with Barron as well as give the Rams a backup OT with plenty of starting experience would have been helpful. The line is in better shape to fill in around key injuries, like Pace. I don't know how many more depth linemen that best what the Rams already have among their backup ranks will shake out, but if they do, the Rams would be wise to at least make offers.
QB, RB
Obviously, the Rams have their starting RB, and he's primed fro a big, big season. Backing him up is Brian Leonard and Antonio Pittman, with one being expected to block more and the other coming in for their straight line speed. I'd like to see Leonard use his ball skills to catch a few passes in the middle, save some wear and tear on Jackson's legs. Is that enough? Are you satisfied with the depth behind Steven Jackson? With names like Travis Henry and Kevin Jones still out there, I'll admit, it's tempting to want to sign one of those guys, but that comes at a cost. At QB, the Rams made Bulger their starter for several years with a new contract last summer. Behind him, Trent Green's concussions give him his share of doubters, and rightfully so, but the Rams seem to think he's fit and need a QB that knows Saunders' complex offense. Finally, the addition of Brice Gradkowski gives them youth with starting expereince in the third QB slot.
TE, WR
Bennett has his doubters after a lackluster season last year, and Holt has a balky knee. Behind those two, the Rams are counting on a rookie, Donnie Avery, to be a deep threat. Reche Caldwell was signed this offseason to give the Rams another experienced WR. There are those who think the Rams should add another experienced #2/3 type WR, but that's not likely now. At tight end, the Rams have a blocker in Becht, a playmaker in McMichael, and something in between in Klopfenstein.
Defensive Line
There's an argument to be made for trying to find a big guy to play tackle in the middle, a roundish nose tackle type. However, the Rams feature a solid rotation at DT with Carriker and Glover starting and Ryan and a possibly much improved Claude Wroten behind them. At DE, the future starts now with Chris Long transitioning under the tutledge of the big man, Leonard Little. Adeyanju and Hall back them up.
Linebacker
This is where, on the surface anyway, the need for additional help stands out. After losing Brandon Chillar to free agency, the Rams turn to Quentin Culberson to replace Chillar's 54 tackles. Added last May as an undrafted free agent, Culberson played in 14 games, staring 1, last season and recorded 24 tackles and 2 forced fumbles. Haslett and the team endorsed Culberson hardily when they made little effort to retain Chillar. It's a big leap of faith with one of the team's other three starting LBs, Pisa Tinoisamoa, having last played all 16 games in 2005.
D-backs
This was a problem area last season with starters Fakhir Brown and Tye Hill both missing time due to suspension and injury. Jonathan Wade enters his second season and Ron Bartell begins his fourth. Bartell's a solid nickel and we'll know more about what Wade has to offer this season. Rumors about adding a proven veteran like Lito Sheppard circulated in the spring, but that had more to do with the assumption that Brown would wind up suspended for the whole season because of a repeat banned substance violation. At safety, the Rams have a real star in OJ Atogwe, who led the NFC with 8 INTs last year. At strong safety, locker room leader Corey Chavous was a bust on the field and the Rams will turn to Jerome Carter and rookie Chris Chamberlin, who has the speed and range to succeed at SS, to spell Chavous.
Special Teams
Josh Brown, K, was the big name added on ST this year, following last year's acquisition of another leg, punter Donnie Jones. The Rams have several candidates for return duties behind Dante Hall, and draft picks David Vorbora and Chamberlin headline the non-kicking/returner additions to ST. This is an area that MUST improve, and if a specialist or two turns up on the waiver wire or free agent roles, the Rams shouldn't hesitate to make a move.
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If and buts...
I don't know if anyone saw this last week or not, but I stumbled across it last night and have been obsessing over it every since. It's an overview/prediction for the 2008 season from What If Sports. More than just pithy comments about draft picks and free agents, they map out the entire season, from week one to the Super Bowl.
I really dig it; although, I completely disagree with their 5-11, last place prediction for the Rams. Come on, are we really goning to be worse than the 49ers? No way. They do make a good point about that brutal schedule through the first half of the season. According to their predictions, the first 7 games feature five playoff teams, both Super Bowl teams (Dallas and New England in this sim) and all with a better than .500 record.
Let's delve into a couple of their findings.
The prediction glosses over the impact of last year's injury outbreak and the return of those players to full health, not to mention the addition of Jacob Bell on the o-line. That takes something away from it. Even with the injuries last season, the Rams still managed a few close games, notably a 16-17 home loss to the 49ers in week 2, a 31-34 home loss to the Cardinals in week 5, and a 19-24 home loss to the Seahawks in week 12. With healthier starters and key additions to both the defense and offense, I think their predictions of home losses to all of those teams are a bit dire.
That said, the first half of the schedule is brutal to say the least. Since when did scheduling mandate that last season's cellar dwellers had to play the playoff teams?
I also have a qualm with their identification of turnovers as the most exploitable weakness. The Rams were the worst in the NFC for turnovers, giving opponents 37. But take a look behind those numbers. Marc Bulger fumbled the ball 6 times, losing 5, and threw 15 INTs, his worst season for turnovers since 2003. I hate to trot the injury excuse everytime I hear criticism about the Rams, but I think it's waranted in this case.
With a healthy o-line in front of him, Marc Bulger would have turned the ball over 20 times. No way. That's not to say he would never have turned it over, but 20 times? Gus Frerotte had 12 INTs and one fumble lost; Gus Frerotte probably wouldn't have played without the injuries on the o-line that left Marc Bulger vulnerable to 37 sacks, a concussion and all the other bruises and bumps keeping him off his game. (it's not unreasonable to be concerned about Bulger's recovery from last season.)
The prediction makers did have some nice things to say about the Rams, though. They project Chris Long to accumulate 34 tackles and 7 sacks. But they saved their bulk of their gushing for Steven Jackson:
Steven Jackson - Dude is a monster (in all the best ways possible). When offensive coordinator Al Saunders says that Jackson has not yet even touched his potential, our jaws drop. But, we believe him. Saunders has helped to maximize the productivity of guys including Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson and Clinton Portis. Steven Jackson is not just in the same conversation as those guys; he could end up being better. In the first year of the new system, we give him 1,823 total yards and 15 touchdowns.
Like any good prediction maker, they left themselves some wiggle room, and they'll need it. I don't think there's a playoff team here, but I don't think it's crazy or homerism or crazy homerism that the Rams can get to 7 wins.
Finally, here's another "what if" for the comments section. What if the Rams do only win 5 games? Does Scott Linehan keep his job? Does Steven Jackson become trade bait? Does the team start making plans to beat feet to LA?
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Friday Fantasy Tipsheet: Saturday edition
I promised the Friday Fantasy Tipsheet yesterday, because, you know, it was Friday. I didn't plan on the Biblical deluge that swept through the city, closing streets and making my yard into a rice paddy. It was a mess. My heart goes out to the folks in Iowa and the rest of the upper Midwest suffering through an even worse monsoon.
On to drier things.
So much for Steven Jackson being a sleeper in fantasy leagues this season. After coming across this Yahoo! ranking earlier in the week, that puts him at #3, with some cognitive dissonance making #4 on a few lists, I decided to take a quick, unscientific survey of where others are ranking Jackson.
CBS Sportsline ranks him #3. This one seems to be the outlier, putting SJ in the 5th spot. Obviously Adrian Peterson is the new "it" guy, with good reason, the Vikings have a top notch o-line and the kid's faster than a...uh...insert an analogy here. So Jackson's not a steal, but while the top two picks grapple over Peterson and LT, know that Jackson could be at least as productive as either of those two, a #1 pick in the #3 spot.
Let's continue on with the ranks. Marc Bulger sits at #9 on the CBS list and 10th overall at Yahoo!.
What I like about the Jackson and Bulger rankings, as a Rams fan (Bulger could be the real steal in your ff league), is the confidence pundits seem to have in the Rams offensive line. It's been all good news out of mini camp and OTAs thus far, and that's as good a place as you can hope to be a month and half before intensity picks up a bit.
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Rams claim Bruce Gradkowski
There. They did it. The Rams found their new third string QB in Bruce Gradkowski. The PD says that he is expected to replace Brock Berlin on the depth chart. Gradkowski has started 11 games in his career, with some success. Gruden isn't known as a friend to young QBs and developing an arm has never been his forte, so Gradkowski comes to the Rams with some upside: he's only 25, has had some success as a starter, and is motivated. As an understudy to the more experienced Bulger and Trent Green, he should get a good lesson on the game.
Is he the QB of the future? Well, that's kind of a loaded term, now isn't it?
The Bears and Raiders also put in waiver claims for Gradkowski.
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Another man's trash...
Hello Wisconsin! The Rams will head to the northern reaches of the Midwest for training camp this year, mixing the corporate retreat theory of team building through isolation with the opportunity to scrimmage other NFL teams. I know for some of us who've enjoyed a stop by to watch snaps at training camp, the move kind of sucks. But, I'll say what I said last time, I don't care if they hold training camp in the Green Zone as long as it helps them win a few more games this season.
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About those Tampa Bay QBs
Some expected/wanted to see the Rams take a QB later in the draft this year. Not necessarily the QB of the future, but a 3rd QB with a little more upside than Brock Berlin. Since the Rams came away from the draft with the same 3 quarterbacks on the roster as before, scuttlebutt has since had us keep an eye on Tampa Bay, with six QBs on the roster now. Below are the six Tampa quarterbacks with odds of the Rams getting them and a pithy comment. Yay, pithy comment!
Jeff Garcia - Garcia's probably the starter, barring injury, etc. Odds: 0
Brian Griese - The really, really poor man's back up QB. The Bucs actually traded a 6th round pick in the 2009 draft to get Griese. I'd say he doesn't make the Bucs final roster AND we're not that desperate for a 3rd QB. Odds: 200:1
Josh Johnson - The Bucs' 5th round pick in this year's draft, and in all likelihood, their 3rd string QB. Gruden et al invested in Johnson, from San Diego, with the expectation and scouting reports to match that he can develop into an NFL starter. Odds: 0
Bruce Gradkowski - The "Polish Rifle" madea splash filling in for an injured Chris Simms in 2006. He had a great five game run as a starter, beginning in week five, but the wheels came off in week 10 as he threw eight INTs over his next four games before finally being replaced by Tim Rattay in week 15. he saw action in just two games last season, none as a starter. How much upside does he have left? He's probably getting cut, according to the Odds: 20:1
Luke McCown - drafted by the Browns (an ominous start to your career) in 2004 and traded to the Bucs in 2005, McCown started three games last year, and made a splash in his Tampa Bay starting debut beating the Saints in week 13. He's most likely the #2 QB this season in Tampa Bay. Odds: 50:1
Chris Simms - 'Memba him? He became the talk of the league, the next big thing, after a rocky start to his 2005 season, losing to the Redskins in the first round of the playoffs thanks to an Edell Shepherd butterfinger catch. Then there was the injury in 2006 that caused him to lose five pints of blood thanks to a ruptured spleen. Then there was the contract extension in December of '06 with the assumption he'd start...only he didn't. He got injured and that led to the pundit controversy around whether it was mostly his pride that was truly injured. Anyway, Tampa received several trade offers, reportedly, for Simms this spring, but decided to keep him on the roster and see what happens in training camp. The problem? He's healthy this year and opting to skip team activities. In short, he's a goner. There figures to be some demand for his services, so it likely comes down to a bidding war. I'd think he'd have some upside, particularly for a 3rd spot on the depth chart, but would he sign on to be the 3rd QB? He'd be a good get, at the right price for the Rams, but therein lies the problem. Odds: 25:1
Suffice it to say, the Rams quarterback of the future probably isn't going to be found among the Tampa Bay reject pile. Gradkowski, if he really offers much upside over Berlin, is the most intriguing for the 3rd QB role, and Simms would be really interesting if the Rams hadn't invested heavily in Trent Green as their backup. However, Green's fairly elderly, in NFL terms, and coming off a concussion, so nabbing a guy with #2 potential, even at a #2 cost, isn't the worst idea in the world. As far as the next face of the franchise, I think we'll have to wait for the 2009 draft.
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Top Rams Rookie Seasons
The hope/excitement of the draft has yet to wane and with reports of Chris Long breezing through the love fest that was the Rams minicamp, thoughts of rookie sensations are sweeping through my head.
And with nothing much happening on the Rams front for awhile, what better time than to pull the cib webs off the ol' history book, crack it open and take a look back at some of the better rookie seasons in Rams history.
Unfortunately, you've got to have a long, really long memory for stuff like that, as football just hasn't established the footprint on the web that baseball has, where a click or two of the mouse gets you arse deep in history and tradition. So, I thought I'd break it down by memory, starting now with the Rams' history since coming to St. Louis in 1995. Again, not to slight the team's history, but I have a much better recollection of the Rams after they came to St. Louis than before. We'll get into the Los Angeles period later this week.
Kevin Carter, 1995
Taken by the Rams with the sixth overall pick in the 1995 draft , we all hope Chris Long enjoys a long and prosperous career like Carter's. In his rookie season, the team's first in a new city, playing in that old bowl shaped monument to the functionalist architecture of the 1960s, Carter started all 16 games, recorded 33 tackles, 6 sacks, and a safety for good measure.
Eddie Kennison, 1996
That's right, before he was the Chiefs' possession guy, he had a three season stint with the Rams , who drafted him 18th overall in the 1996 draft. His rookie season, it turns out, would be his most memorable for awhile, until he landed with LC in 2002. With the Rams in 1996, Kennison caught 54 passes for 924 yards and a 9 touchdowns. Not bad for the Tony Baks era. It would be his best season until 2004 with the Chiefs, when offensive coordinator Al Saunders' system helped EK, at 31, get his first 1000+ yard season and 8 TDs to boot. If there's ever been a reason to feel confident in the Rams WR picks, it's now, with Al Saunders on board.
Orlando Pace, 1997
There's not really much in the way of stats for the o-line, but Pace started 9 games for the Rams in his rookie season. That year, the Rams allowed 44 sacks and passed for 3,198 yards and 14 TDs. The year before, the Rams allowed 57 sacks, passed for 2,765 yards and 18 TDs. It was the beginning of something beautiful.
Tony Horne, 1998
Finding something good about the '98 season taxes even the most optimistic fans, but Horne picked up 1308 yards on 56 kick returns, including one for a 102 yard TD.
Torry Holt, 1999
Who didn't have a good season in 1999? Holt, the 6th overall pick in the draft , madea splash with 52 catches, 788 yards and 6 TDs, behind only the great Marshall Faulk and Isaac Bruce in receptions and receiving yards in the year the Greatest Show on Turf was born.
Kurt Warner, 1999*
Technically, Warner's rookie year was 1998, but since he made only one appearance and threw just 11 passes, maybe we can make an exception. Besides, Warner was kind of an exception already, getting his into to hte NFL in his late 20s. Anyway, it's not hard to remember Warner passing for 4353 yards and 41 TDs. It's easy to see why fan boards are still filled with "bring back Warner" posts.
Adam Archuleta, 2001
Fans take note, another Rams first round pick had an impact season in their rookie year. Arch Delux didn't lead the team in any one category, but the safety became a solid contributor out of the defensive backfield in his rookie year. He posted 2 sacks, 47 tackles, a forced fumble and 3 pass deflections.
Marc Bulger, 2002
Starting seven games in place of the injured Kurt Warner, Bulger made his mark as the future franchise QB passing for 1826 yards, 14 TDs and just 6 INTs.
Pisa Tinoisamoa, 2003
Arguably his best season so far . The Rams newest LB and 2nd round pick recorded 2 sacks, 67 tackles, 4 forced fumbles, 7 pass deflections and 3 INTs. Injuries have conspired to hide all that Pisa is capable of for the last two seasons, and the Rams will be counting on him to have a healthy and productive year in 2008.
Steven Jackson, 2004
Not his most memorable season by any means, but on 134 carries, SJ had 673 yards and 4 TDs. Faulk, who played in just 14 games that year, had 774 yards on 195 carries and just 3 TDs, ruining fantasy hopes across the country. Jackson also had 138 yards on 19 receptions.
Tye Hill, 2006
Sour times for Rams fans and rookies. You really have to get the magnifying glass out to see the team's bright spots in the middle part of this decade. Hill, the Rams first round pick, had 47 tackles, 6 pass deflections, and 3 INTs, tying him with Brown and Atogwe for the team lead in a season where the Rams defense was forgettable at best. His second year marred by injury, we're all anxious to see what Hill can do this year.
Clifton Ryan, 2007
You thought I was going to say Carriker here, huh? Well, intangibles aside, Ryan owns the better rookie numbers from last season. The surprise stand out from the 5th round played his way into an indispensible role at DT. In the process, he accumlated 24 tackles, 3 forced fumbles, and 2 sacks. Nothing huge, but enough to help put the Rams defense back on the road to respectability.
Ok, feel free to add your own picks in the comments below. The encouraging thing here is that there's a solid history of Rams rookies making their presence known right away. This season, there are several candidates to have a big impact on the team's fortunes. The easy pick is Chris Long, but guys like Donnie Avery, Keenan Burton, Roy Scheuning, John Greco, Justin King and even Mr. Irrelevant, David Vobora, could surprise us all. Care to venture a guess?
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