There is a commonly found, strong opinion on TST that the Rams MUST draft an offensive lineman in the first round. Others argue that quality offensive linemen can be found in the later rounds. So let’s put this argument to rest. This is a simple exercise. First, I capture the offensive linemen in 2014 who started more than 50 percent of the snaps. Second, I looked up what draft pick where they were selected.
Tackles
Name |
Pick Position |
Eric Fisher |
1 |
Luke Joeckel |
2 |
Joe Thomas |
3 |
Lane Johnson |
4 |
Trent Williams |
4 |
D'Brickashaw Ferguson |
4 |
Matt Kalil |
4 |
Russell Okung |
6 |
Jake Matthews |
6 |
Eugene Monroe |
8 |
Tyron Smith |
9 |
D.J. Fluker |
11 |
Ryan Clady |
12 |
Nate Solder |
17 |
Gosder Cherilus |
17 |
Justin Pugh |
19 |
Ja'Wuan James |
19 |
Anthony Castonzo |
22 |
Bryan Bulaga |
23 |
Riley Reiff |
23 |
Michael Oher |
23 |
Duane Brown |
26 |
Joe Staley |
28 |
Mitchell Schwartz |
37 |
Cordy Glenn |
41 |
Jonathan Martin |
42 |
Phil Loadholt |
54 |
Andrew Whitworth |
55 |
Sebastian Vollmer |
58 |
William Beatty |
60 |
Marcus Gilbert |
63 |
Justin Britt |
64 |
Jared Veldheer |
69 |
Ryan Harris |
70 |
Terron Armstead |
75 |
Joe Barksdale |
92 |
David Bakhtiari |
109 |
Bobby Massie |
112 |
Anthony Collins |
112 |
Doug Free |
122 |
Jermon Bushrod |
125 |
Breno Giacomini |
150 |
Jordan Mills |
163 |
Ricky Wagner |
168 |
Tom Compton |
193 |
Zach Strief |
210 |
Derek Newton |
214 |
King Dunlap |
230 |
Seantrel Henderson |
237 |
Kelvin Beachum |
248 |
Jason Peters |
UDFA |
Donald Penn |
UDFA |
Ryan Schraeder |
UDFA |
Demar Dotson |
UDFA |
Nate Chandler |
UDFA |
Byron Bell |
UDFA |
Guards
Chance Warmack |
10 |
Mike Pouncey |
15 |
Zack Martin |
16 |
Mike Iupati |
17 |
Kyle Long |
20 |
Davin Joseph |
23 |
David DeCastro |
24 |
James Carpenter |
25 |
Kevin Zeitler |
27 |
Ben Grubbs |
29 |
Logan Mankins |
32 |
Rodger Saffold |
33 |
Joel Bitonio |
35 |
Justin Blalock |
39 |
Weston Richburg |
43 |
Zane Beadles |
45 |
Orlando Franklin |
46 |
Daryn Colledge |
47 |
Andy Levitre |
51 |
Chris Chester |
56 |
Jack Mewhort |
59 |
Kelechi Osemele |
60 |
John Greco |
65 |
Larry Warford |
65 |
Jon Asamoah |
68 |
John Jerry |
73 |
Brandon Brooks |
76 |
Evan Mathis |
79 |
Kraig Urbik |
79 |
Gabe Jackson |
81 |
Marshal Yanda |
86 |
Hugh Thornton |
86 |
Trai Turner |
92 |
Shawn Lauvao |
92 |
Brandon Linder |
93 |
Chad Rinehart |
96 |
Ben Jones |
99 |
Clint Boling |
101 |
Jahri Evans |
108 |
T.J. Lang |
109 |
Mike McGlynn |
109 |
Manuel Ramirez |
117 |
Rob Sims |
128 |
Willie Colon |
131 |
Josh Sitton |
135 |
Oday Aboushi |
141 |
Johnnie Troutman |
149 |
Zach Fulton |
193 |
Charlie Johnson |
199 |
Ted Larsen |
205 |
Paul Fanaika |
213 |
J.R. Sweezy |
225 |
Andrew Norwell |
UDFA |
Alex Boone |
UDFA |
Ronald Leary |
UDFA |
Ryan Wendell |
UDFA |
Ramon Foster |
UDFA |
Patrick Omameh |
UDFA |
Austin Howard |
UDFA |
Dan Connolly |
UDFA |
Erik Pears |
UDFA |
Centers
Maurkice Pouncey |
18 |
Eric Wood |
28 |
Nick Mangold |
29 |
Travis Frederick |
31 |
Stefen Wisniewski |
48 |
Dominic Raiola |
50 |
Rodney Hudson |
55 |
Kory Lichtensteiger |
59 |
Ryan Kalil |
59 |
Samson Satele |
60 |
J.D. Walton |
80 |
Jeremy Zuttah |
83 |
Roberto Garza |
99 |
Bryan Stork |
105 |
Brian Schwenke |
107 |
Russell Bodine |
111 |
Manuel Ramirez |
117 |
Will Montgomery |
134 |
Jonathan Goodwin |
154 |
Corey Linsley |
161 |
John Sullivan |
187 |
Jason Kelce |
191 |
Chris Myers |
200 |
Luke Bowanko |
205 |
Scott Wells |
251 |
Evan Dietrich-Smith |
UDFA |
James Stone |
UDFA |
Jonotthan Harrison |
UDFA |
Lyle Sendlein |
UDFA |
So here is a histogram of the distribution.
Pick Number |
Frequency |
Percentage |
1 through 25 |
29 |
19.6% |
26 through 50 |
20 |
13.5% |
51 through 75 |
21 |
14.2% |
76 through 100 |
16 |
10.8% |
101 through 125 |
14 |
9.5% |
126 through 150 |
7 |
4.7% |
151 through 175 |
6 |
4.1% |
176 through 200 |
6 |
4.1% |
201 through 225 |
6 |
4.1% |
More than 225 |
23 |
15.5% |
What does this tell us?
80 percent of the starters on the offensive line are selected after pick 25.
67 percent of the starters on the offensive line are selected after pick 50.
42 percent of the starters on the offensive line are selected after pick 100.
The facts and data would say that selecting an offensive lineman in the first round is a not a MUST. In fact, there is little evidence that selecting a guard or tackle in the first round gives you a better opportunity to have a high quality starter than selecting them in the 2nd or later rounds. Interestingly, there is evidence that shows selecting a Center higher in the draft increases the probability of having a quality starter.