FanPost

Offensive Line: Let’s Get it Straight

There is a commonly found, strong opinion on TST that the Rams MUST draft an offensive lineman in the first round. Others argue that quality offensive linemen can be found in the later rounds. So let’s put this argument to rest. This is a simple exercise. First, I capture the offensive linemen in 2014 who started more than 50 percent of the snaps. Second, I looked up what draft pick where they were selected.

Tackles

Name

Pick Position

Eric Fisher

1

Luke Joeckel

2

Joe Thomas

3

Lane Johnson

4

Trent Williams

4

D'Brickashaw Ferguson

4

Matt Kalil

4

Russell Okung

6

Jake Matthews

6

Eugene Monroe

8

Tyron Smith

9

D.J. Fluker

11

Ryan Clady

12

Nate Solder

17

Gosder Cherilus

17

Justin Pugh

19

Ja'Wuan James

19

Anthony Castonzo

22

Bryan Bulaga

23

Riley Reiff

23

Michael Oher

23

Duane Brown

26

Joe Staley

28

Mitchell Schwartz

37

Cordy Glenn

41

Jonathan Martin

42

Phil Loadholt

54

Andrew Whitworth

55

Sebastian Vollmer

58

William Beatty

60

Marcus Gilbert

63

Justin Britt

64

Jared Veldheer

69

Ryan Harris

70

Terron Armstead

75

Joe Barksdale

92

David Bakhtiari

109

Bobby Massie

112

Anthony Collins

112

Doug Free

122

Jermon Bushrod

125

Breno Giacomini

150

Jordan Mills

163

Ricky Wagner

168

Tom Compton

193

Zach Strief

210

Derek Newton

214

King Dunlap

230

Seantrel Henderson

237

Kelvin Beachum

248

Jason Peters

UDFA

Donald Penn

UDFA

Ryan Schraeder

UDFA

Demar Dotson

UDFA

Nate Chandler

UDFA

Byron Bell

UDFA

Guards

Chance Warmack

10

Mike Pouncey

15

Zack Martin

16

Mike Iupati

17

Kyle Long

20

Davin Joseph

23

David DeCastro

24

James Carpenter

25

Kevin Zeitler

27

Ben Grubbs

29

Logan Mankins

32

Rodger Saffold

33

Joel Bitonio

35

Justin Blalock

39

Weston Richburg

43

Zane Beadles

45

Orlando Franklin

46

Daryn Colledge

47

Andy Levitre

51

Chris Chester

56

Jack Mewhort

59

Kelechi Osemele

60

John Greco

65

Larry Warford

65

Jon Asamoah

68

John Jerry

73

Brandon Brooks

76

Evan Mathis

79

Kraig Urbik

79

Gabe Jackson

81

Marshal Yanda

86

Hugh Thornton

86

Trai Turner

92

Shawn Lauvao

92

Brandon Linder

93

Chad Rinehart

96

Ben Jones

99

Clint Boling

101

Jahri Evans

108

T.J. Lang

109

Mike McGlynn

109

Manuel Ramirez

117

Rob Sims

128

Willie Colon

131

Josh Sitton

135

Oday Aboushi

141

Johnnie Troutman

149

Zach Fulton

193

Charlie Johnson

199

Ted Larsen

205

Paul Fanaika

213

J.R. Sweezy

225

Andrew Norwell

UDFA

Alex Boone

UDFA

Ronald Leary

UDFA

Ryan Wendell

UDFA

Ramon Foster

UDFA

Patrick Omameh

UDFA

Austin Howard

UDFA

Dan Connolly

UDFA

Erik Pears

UDFA

Centers

Maurkice Pouncey

18

Eric Wood

28

Nick Mangold

29

Travis Frederick

31

Stefen Wisniewski

48

Dominic Raiola

50

Rodney Hudson

55

Kory Lichtensteiger

59

Ryan Kalil

59

Samson Satele

60

J.D. Walton

80

Jeremy Zuttah

83

Roberto Garza

99

Bryan Stork

105

Brian Schwenke

107

Russell Bodine

111

Manuel Ramirez

117

Will Montgomery

134

Jonathan Goodwin

154

Corey Linsley

161

John Sullivan

187

Jason Kelce

191

Chris Myers

200

Luke Bowanko

205

Scott Wells

251

Evan Dietrich-Smith

UDFA

James Stone

UDFA

Jonotthan Harrison

UDFA

Lyle Sendlein

UDFA

So here is a histogram of the distribution.

Pick Number

Frequency

Percentage

1 through 25

29

19.6%

26 through 50

20

13.5%

51 through 75

21

14.2%

76 through 100

16

10.8%

101 through 125

14

9.5%

126 through 150

7

4.7%

151 through 175

6

4.1%

176 through 200

6

4.1%

201 through 225

6

4.1%

More than 225

23

15.5%

What does this tell us?

80 percent of the starters on the offensive line are selected after pick 25.

67 percent of the starters on the offensive line are selected after pick 50.

42 percent of the starters on the offensive line are selected after pick 100.

The facts and data would say that selecting an offensive lineman in the first round is a not a MUST. In fact, there is little evidence that selecting a guard or tackle in the first round gives you a better opportunity to have a high quality starter than selecting them in the 2nd or later rounds. Interestingly, there is evidence that shows selecting a Center higher in the draft increases the probability of having a quality starter.