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Reversion to the Mean and other thoughts


A few observations as we head towards the season:

1) An important concept when making predictions is called "reversion to the mean". This simply means that after an exceptional event, it is likely the next event will be closer to average than exceptional. The Seahawks are unlikely to repeat as Super Bowl Champs because winning the Super Bowl is exceptional. Year after year, quality programs make the playoffs and then it becomes almost random from there. The same idea applies to players. One thing that makes football so difficult to predict is that most players do not have long enough careers to establish a strong mean and the variables of scheme and surrounding personnel have a huge influence on individual performances. The reason much sports journalism about football is so poor - Falcons and Houston were Super Bowl favorites in 2013 - is precisely this lack of reliable information. They look backwards and make unwarranted future predictions. Because of the salary cap and the limited number of players who have proven they have a high mean of productivity, each team can only afford a few superstars with proven track records. Why were so many teams interested in multi-neck surgery, aging veteran QB Manning? Because the number of proven exceptional QBs who hit the open market is, at first approximation, 0.

For front offices and coaches, this means a whole bunch of decisions are, in essence, bets: We are willing to take this risk for this potential payoff. The Falcons gambled that their aging defense would be just good enough to let their high-powered offense carry the day. Injuries on offense and some scheme weaknesses demonstrated the flaw in that bet. In Houston, the superlative defense was set to carry the solid if unexciting offense to the promised land. Turned out the NFL had caught up with Schaub and his implosion left them staggering.

What have the Rams bets been this off-season?

Long will play and rookie Robinson is good enough to start now. One obvious weakness last year was our offensive line. If Long can return to form and stay healthy and Robinson can be effective as a Rookie, that would be a huge step towards the promised land.

The in-house wide receivers + headcase Kenny Britt = stellar receiving corps. If Austin, Quick, Cook, Steadman, and Britt all play well, then this will be an incredible receiving corps. How many stellar seasons have the folks on this list achieved individually? 0. Think about that, none of these receivers has had an all-pro or even near all-pro season in the NFL. Talk about a bet . . .

Defensive lines can dominate a football game. The Seahwaks won the Super Bowl with an incredible secondary, the 49ers went two years ago with one of the best LB groups in decades. Can a defensive line achieve the same thing? We are about to find out because it is clear that behind our defensive line is a suspect secondary.

JJ and Tru can step up and some rookie DBs will make plays. The Rams had two chances to pick a DB in the first round and passed. This is a vote of confidence in the in-house talent that has, to date, shown flashes but not sustained excellence.

With these bets in mind, it is easy to either see how the season could go really well or collapse entirely. If the O-line is healthy, the WRs play well as a group, the secondary is solid if unspectacular, and the d-line dominates, then we are on our way to the playoffs.

On the other hand, if Robinson falters in his rookie campaign and Long cannot play, if the WRs struggle, the secondary falls apart and the d-line can be blocked consistently, we are in for a long and painful season - again.

Remember, however, that each of these bets was a trade-off. Would we rather have Watkins than a top OL prospect? Was there a rookie safety or corner who could make the impact of Donald?

For my part, I think the o-line will be fine, the WRs will be MUCH improved, the secondary will hold up their end and the D-Line is going to be the talk of the NFL.

Other thoughts:

Not sure why our TST Overlord RVB gets so much grief here but I think he does a solid job of moderating the forums, despite banning the lovely pics, and provides quality content.

I have not had a TV in about 30 years. Last weekend I was in a hotel room and thought, "well, let's watch some TV." Holy shit is sports broadcasting terrible. It brought home to me the overall quality of the articles and comments on the TST. Let's just say I am not rushing out to buy a big screen.

I have checked out various other NFL blogs on SB Nation and I have to say that TST has some of the best community support and stories.