Pitch in and blow a Big Bubble Smoke Screen! -If the TST membership and Snead can convince QB needy teams we will pick Manziel at #2, we can trade back and force a run on QB's! Or take Manziel and trade Bradford. Either way we push positional players back to us at 13.
I keep hearing NFL teams saying we can get a franchise QB after round 1. Liar Liar pants on fire! Where there is smoke there is fire. Smoke screen. Fat Chance!
Before you get your dandruff up, listen to my stats and logic. Deal?
Fact- Since 2006, I can't count a quarterback chosen after the 3rd round that is a starter. Tom Brady is an anomaly. Romo is a throw back. Scouting is an art and science. Let's move on...
Five Teams who need a QB, like a man in hell needs a drink of water!
1. Houston can't fit Clowney into their defense...They need QB's. The #1 pick hasn't been traded back in a decade.
Jacksonvile- Manziel could sell how many tickets in Jacksonville and without Manziel they get Jackshit primetime football. I think with Manziel they get more prime time TV exposer. Manziel is a TV Magnet!
Cleveland- How many more times will they say "We hate Manziel?" In January they screamed we love Johnny. You know the type. The chick who jumps back into the abusive relationship time after time. What can you expect out of a team who hasn't won a championship since LBJ?
Minnesota- Manziel will be gone by #8, but they could trade for the second best QB in the draft... Sam Bradford
Oakland- They will do something very stupid!
Teams who could use a better QB, and would draft a top 4-6 QB if they slid down the draft into their laps.
NYG- You don’t think so? Chew on this. Your over 33 year old QB is hobbling around on an ankle injury, and Eli led the NFL last year with 29 interceptions.
KC- The Chiefs are have problems negotiating Alex Smith’s contract. It would be cheaper to draft a QB in the first round, and trade Alex Smith. Chief are considering pick future QB at 23. Remember Cleveland drafts 26th.
Cowboys- 100 million dollar Romo is coming off his umpteenth surgery. Nobody chokes in December like Romo!
Patriots- Are a very smart team, and they will snatch any QB who slips. How many more years does Tom Brady have?
Denver- How many more years does Peyton have? And I would love Peyton to school QB of the future? You think John Elway and Peyton would love to groom a future QB?
Rams- If Bradford get's injured, we will need a QB. Bradford is injury prone, and he has a losing record, and was 34 in YDS/A last year.
That's 14 teams. How many Franchise QB's are in this draft? Not many. Maybe 4. May I add 2 more teams?
Bills and Jets. Manziel, Carr, Bridgewater, Murray, and Bortles may all be better than Manual or Smith. Beside that's what the Jet's do. The Jet love 7 headed hydra quarterback controversies! That's half the NFL that need a better QB! QB is by far the most important position, So why on God's Green's Earth, would QB's drop in this draft. Short answer is...they won't!
Am I making sense? That’s 14 teams or 16 teams, who would be very tempted to choose a QB. Let me repeat a stat, that you might not be aware of. Since 2006, not one NFL starting QB's drafted after the 3rd round is starting today! Not one! Brady is an anomaly. You want to bet your GM job future on an anomaly? OK if your name is Captain Kirk...Maybe, if you have Spock as your GM!
Another Reason to Choose a QB in the First Round- You can sign a First Round franchise QB for FIVE years. You can't do that in rounds 2-7! That means you can keep the most expensive, valuable position on the your team for 5 relatively cheap years. And if the QB you draft is elite you want to keep him for as many years as possible. Agreed?
I keep hearing people say you can get a franchise QB in a later round. Well, it better be round 2 or 3, cause it hasn’t happened for 8 years beyond round 3. How many starting QB’s were drafted in rounds 2 and 3? Let’s take a closer look at them.
1. Andy Dalton 35 th pick in draft! 3 picks away from 1st rounder. Border line first and second rounder.
2. Jacksonville- Who will start for Jacksonville? What the hell is happening in Jacksonville. I don’t know. But I do know that Jacksonville's current QB’s are not from the 1st round. And they are gag me with a spoon horrible!
3. Minnesota- Who the hell is Minnesota’s starting QB…Not a 1st rounder? I don’t know, I didn't check! But I do know they need a new QB bad, to go along with Adrian Peterson if they want to win the NFC North.
4.Geno Smith- 39th pick…Not working out so well. Is it?
5.Nick Foles- 3rd round winner! But is Nick Foles a product of Chip Kelly’s system, or is he a 3rd round steal?
6. Kaerpernick- 36th player pick, 4 picks away from 1st round. He’s similar to Manziel, but Kaepernick is surrounded by 9 All Pros. What a supporting class!
7.Russel Wilson- 75th player picked. Super Bowl winner who everybody compares to Manziel. Like Kaerpernick he is surrounded by All Pros, and QB of the #1 defense in the NFL.
So out of 32 teams since 2006 we got 4 players who are decent QB’s- Wilson, Kapernick, Foles, and Dalton. 2 of these 4 QB’s were only 4 picks away from going in the first round. Correct.
Not lets’ look at 1st round starting QB’s
2. Matt Ryan
3. Joe Flacco
5. Jay Cutler
6. EJ Manual- I didn't bring up the Bills QB needs, but I think at least 5 QB's in this draft would be an improvement.
8 Peyton Manning
9 Eli Manning
10. Mathew Stafford
11. Aaron Rodgers
12 Andrew Luck
13. Ryan Tannehill
15. Alex Smith
16. Drew Brees
17. Ben Roethlisberger
18. Philip Rivers
Bottom Line- 18 first round QB’s with at least 8 Super Bowl wins. Only 3 have never made the playoffs. Sam Bradford, EJ Manual, and Matt Stafford.
2 of the 4 non first round picks were QBs drafted within 4 picks of the first round. That leaves 2 NFL starting QB’s drafted in the 3rd round. Foles who had the advantage for a offense the NFL had never seen. And Russell Wilson, a QB with 9 other all pros surrounding him. So in the last 8 years there are 2 QB’s drafted after the 36th pick in the draft who are decent. All the rest were drafted in the first 36 picks. I pointed out there 5 teams who need a QB NOW, and 7 additional teams who would nab a 1st round like QB if they dropped in their arms. Considering all the QB’s drafted in the first 3 rounds in the last 8 years, would you bet on grabbing a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round, will lead you to the Superbowl? I don’t think so! Like I said, since 2006 there are no NFL starting QB’s! THERE WILL BE A RUN ON QUARTERBACKS!
There may be a bunch of 1st round bust QB's in NFL history , But there are a thousand more 2 round and beyond QB bust, who never ever make it. If I know this fact, then NFL teams know this fact. Mark my words, there will be a run on QB's in the first round. 5 QB picked in the first. 3 in the top 10.. 4 by our 13th pick.