Valuing the Elusive Pick 13
This is the second in a series where we explore the value of our draft picks. Given General Snead’s propensity to move around the board, this can provide a decent consideration for what kind of gains we will receive for moving around; we also try to examine some of the players that fits the Rams in these spots
Discussion around pick 2 goes here:
In the middle of round 1, especially with a draft talent curve that we’re looking at, trading down is less incentivized by the NFL chart as teams seem often to only offer things that work well on the AV chart. The difference is that the NFL chart (aka the Jimmy Johnson chart) values the top picks much more highly, while the AV chart finds that players in the middle rounds provide a lot of value (esp rd 3).
Without further adieu, Pick 13!
First let’s try to get a feel for the board. At least 2 QBs will be gone, likely 3 QBs will be gone, and its possible for 4 QBs (Carr for #4) to be gone. The more QBs that are off the table the better for our pick, as it will increase the value of what’s left. At this point in the draft, the Oline and WR talent should really be popping.
WR: Sammy Watkins will be gone. It is possible that 1 other WR is gone (were Al Davis alive, Kelvin Benjamin would be guaranteed to be gone as well). Mike Evans, Marqise Lee and Odell Beckham Jr. are in this range per CBS. Depending on the analyst/team Benjamin could go as high as this and as low as into rd 2.
For teams that want a WR badly who pick at the bottom of the draft, they could be enticed to move up here. Ther are only 2 big receiver in this draft.
*Marquise Lee is a better prospect than Cooks, and that is a case of ‘you get what you pay for.’
* Mike Evans is the first of the big receivers compared to a prospect of David Boston. He had Johnny Foosball tossing him the ball in college, and they made football look fun. Enormous catch radius.
* Kelvin Benjamin has a height/weight/speed combo that only CJ can match (however his lack of polish gives him a very low basement—upside is looks like CJ, plays like a better Plex—downside is looks like CJ, plays like Stephen Hill).
This draft is strewn with OTs. And these boys look good. Last year featured a run on the OL and if it happens this year, the run will be in full swing by pick 13. I would expect Greg Robinson and Jake Matthews off the board. Who might be around:
*Taylor Lewan may be gone and would provide exceptional value at this pick were he available. Monster size OT with good but not elite feet creates a prospect that could be the complete NFL package.
via tshq.co*Zack Martin of Notre Dame has made a strong push since the combine, and if there is an OT run could also be gone. This is big for a guy that I was seeing in the mid second round a month ago; some people think he could still drop to round 2. I like him, but think he is a reach here.
Last year Sharrif Floyd was a top 5-10 pick in most drafts. TSTimes 7 round fiasco featured the Rams war room making a big trade up to get the guy. He fell to the Vikes in the 20s (who also worked their own trade up to grab falling Cordarelle Patters—both players are working out for them). Who might fall this year: I think the position of fallers is weirdly, edge rusher, because both players have a reason they might fall:
1) Anthony Barr, UCLA. Used to be considered a top 5 pick, and some football watchers (MJ_HaLevi) think that they have seen enough to warrant him going that high. He could play the Von Miller 4-3 strongside LB/nickel rusher or a classic 3-4 edge rusher (the Aldon Smith/Terrell Sugs job).
Reason he would fall: lack of polish, questions of effectiveness against NFL level athletes 2) Khalil Mack, Buffalo. The other OLB. Playing at college pariah Buffalo he was a one man defense. I have seen him mocked in the top 10; I have seen him mocked far below that. The only thing that would shock me with Mack is if he dropped from rd 1 altogether.
Reason he would fall: played at doormat Buffalo (see Jamie Collins dropping 20+ picks behind where his skills warranted last year)
Justin Gilbert is the only CB mocked in the top 15 consistently. Darqueze Denard is a polarizing prospect who could go late 1-rd3. Roberson is also mocked in rd 1 but rarely this high. I’m sold on none of them. Gilbert could be gone by pick 13.
Safety: There are 2 safeties worthy of a 1st round pick and a fat cliff behind them. Dix and Pryor. Dix is often mocked to the Rams at 13 and with good reason.
DTs: The Rams do not appear to be in the market for a DT, but there are lots of guys to like in this draft. This could also influence other teams to move up the board
--Aaron Donald: destructive DT out of Pitt. Talent wise he should be off the board. Size used to have him in the mid rounds, but he’s caught on. Watching his college tape it makes sense that John Randle and Warren Sapp are brought up as comparisons.
Coming to the NFL in 2014 via www.toledoblade.com--Timmy Jernigan (FSU) 4-3 penetrator who shined on their all-stud defense
--Louis Nix. He is the embodiment of a 3-4 space eater. Not a schematic fit for St. Louis.
--Ra’Shede Hageman. As a prospect getting a handle on his value is difficult. Could be drafted by the Rams right here, could be on the board in rd 2. Upside is he’s built like Albert Haynesworth with the athleticism to boot.
Detour: For the rare trade-up analysis, here’s the value
Its possible the Rams might want to trade this up—this is not my preference, but here’s the general math. A quick primer on what we’d expect to offer to move into picks. Our 3rd round pick gets us very close to the Bills/Vikes at 8/9 but they may rightly want a 5th rounder tossed in to make that work. Above that the cost is going to be our second rounder. All of these trades will probably get done on the NFL chart, and would get the rams killed on the AV chart. Should a prospect that we love start falling it is possible (Sammy Watkins? Jake Matthews?)
Trading it down
So between pick 13 and on the trades often are below the NFL Chart and a bit above the AV chart.
Who might want to dance?
Let’s look at some trade partners:
Pick 17) Dallas: known to need defensive help and with Chicago behind the rams with the same needs, Jerry might move up (Aaron Donald? Haha Dix?)
What he’d have to pay us: Its worth a rd 3 on the NFL chart and a rd 6 on the AV chart. Snead probably wouldn’t move for less than a rd 3 value for this trade.
Pick 19) Miami. New FO, they probably suck. Similar deal to dallas + a rd 7 by the AV chart or 4 by the NFL Chart. (Call it this year’s rd 3 + next year’s rd 5)
Pick 31) Denver Broncos. With a rapidly closing SBowl window; I could see Elway, Fox and co moving up for a player they are in love with. Analysis is similar to pick 30 below with the value at a minimum of something like their rd 2+4 and possibly more.
2 teams in our division by the draft board make a lot of sense as trade partners. These trades don’t often happen, but:
Pick 18) AZ cardinals. They are an old team who should probably use all of their picks to get younger. However, they also need a left tackle, and if Lewan is on board, they may be enticed to move up. As an old team, the short SBowl window could suggest a move up as well. Value: More than their 3rd by the NFL chart and a rd 5 by the AV chart. Again, I don’t see Snead moving unless he gets a rd 3 + a small something extra (a rd 7 turned into a rd 6 or something)
Pick 30) San Fran has a great roster, and desperately needs a receiver not named Crabtree. With Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin and Lee all around, they could use to give up some of their picks to get their man. Especially if there has been a run on WR and 2 of those guys + Watkins have been picked, SF should be getting antsy. They gave picks to trade up last year, and still had a roster able to basically red-shirt 2 draft picks.
Value: rd 3 by AV, high round 2 by NFL Chart. As the 9ers pick in the back of round 2, I think a trade looks something like we get a minimum of rd 2 + rd 4. That trade would mean the Rams getting killed by 260 points on the NFL chart, but winning the AV chart handily (value of a late 3rd rounder).
Why we might want to trade?
The Rams have needs at guard, tackle, safety, and a third CB (assuming Finne is not returning). The CB market is thin at the top, there are 2 1st round grade safeties with a cliff after that, and the good guards all seem to be getting high rd 2 grades (I have not considered the humor of trading back with the Redskins, though they have shown interest in moving up—I don’t think they’d have another 1st round pick for us, but what do I know).
If the goal is to maximize value, and assuming a bonus 2nd rounder from trading down pick 2 (a big assumption, as we also want a 2015 1st rounder), to fill our needs we might wish to trade this down so that we can pick the top 2 guards in the draft (Su’a Filo and Gabe Jackson—note that the former now has a 1st round grade from some people) at the top of rd 2 or very back of rd 1; there are also a couple second tier OTs that could go in that range and who could be enticing there (Morgan Moses, Antonio Richardson). That would give us the top talent matching our needs + BPA at pick 6-9 (e.g. Anthony Barr / Sammy Watkins / Jake Matthews).
Mr. Filo is about to eat lunch via dailybruin.com
Also, it gives us one more chance to slurp up falling talent. This draft features a massive bumper crop of defensive tackles and I think that a rd 2/3 pick for a 4-3 gap attacking DT would be a huge team improvement as it solidifies the rotation immediately, and should be an upgrade to Langford by next season. There are a lot of players in this draft that would appear to upgrade the Ram’s roster, and many of them are grading out to drop snugly into the back half of rd 1 and early part of rd 2. Maximizing picks in that range seems a strong strategy.