The consensus (and more or less stated by Snead) is that the Rams plan to Trade down; I wanted to explore what we get for that. If the response is positive, I will make a future post looking at pick 13 and moving back up into round 1 from later picks as well (I advocate a strat of moving down from 2/13 and then back up into rd 1 from rd 2)
For Reference the AV and NFL charts are here:
Given the potential of the top overall pick and the auction mentality of such things; I expect the Rams to be able to get something approaching or exceeding the NFL chart for pick 2. Quantitative Assumptions: I assume future picks are midpoint of the round at a 12.5% discount to present value. I will readjust to higher discounts/ lower picks if the team is good (Den/NE) and worse if they’re talentless (Jag, Raiders).
Pick 2—This pick is either Jadaveon Clowney or whichever QB other teams want.
Let’s see the main players to trade up to pick 2:
1) Cleveland Browns
Often discussed as a landing point for a trade partner. The NFL Chart suggest that our 2nd round pick is worth something like their 3rd and 4th rounder. (The AV Chart suggests its worth a 4th round pick round this year and no more). Also, we could agree to give them next year’s 2nd round pick for their 1st round pick next year—but that still leaves them short 100 points on the trade chart without adjusting for the Cleveland always sucks factor
a. Getting both of their 1st round picks is worth 100 more for the Browns on the NFL chart and a blowout for the Rams on the AV chart.
b. I think they will need to pay that or more because of Atlanta’s likely offer (see Atlanta)
i. I do not think the Browns should move up for this price, but history suggests the Browns will screw up no matter what they choose.
2) Oakland Raiders
A frequently discussed landing spot due to their need for a QB. However, I think not for 2 reasons. First and foremost, Oakland’s roster is still in worse shape than the Rams when Fisher took over, and their GM is aware of this. They need talent everywhere and on balance my guess is they will look to trade down for the second year in a row. Last year they featured the world’s worst starting guard last year (as well as injuries to basically every OL they signed), 1 good DLineman in a 4 -3 front, and a painful DB rotation playing against Manning and Rivers. Given up a second round draft pick will hurt them. Secondly their OC is the QB whisperer and could probably rejuvenate strong-armed Josh Freeman who hasn’t looked the same since Olsen left. But if they want to dance, here’s the cost:
a. Oakland’s second round pick puts the NFL chart at just about even. I don’t expect Oakland to bid more than that if they want to move up.
b. I think offers will come in better than Oakland’s second rounder, and Oakland needs those picks more than most (aside, I thought their drafting was much improved last year—which gives more value to low end picks)
Thomas Dimitroff got his team to the NFC Championships with a studs and duds approach perfectly exampled by his signuature big swing to move up for Julio Jones. The approach blew up in Atlanta’s face this year when key injuries made it clear the roster lacked 22 good starters, let alone depth. However there’s a reason nobody was fired in Atlanta—-the strategy has been successful overall. When he likes a get-what-you-pay-for talent, Dimitroff trades away lots of future picks to get his man. If Clowney is on the board, Atlanta is in play. If not, I expect Atlanta to let the draft come to them. Atlanta could very easily make an offer that the Texans would find it hard to refuse by blowing away all standard value metrics, that would lower the price for the Rams as Clowney is off, Cle is guaranteed a top 2 QB and Atlanta isn't a bidder in the auction--anything the Rams would be very enticed by the Texans might be as well, which makes the dynamic very interesting. What I think Dimitroff will offer:
a. Minimum this and next years’ first round picks, and probably a round 3 this year to top us off (he probably needs a guard too much to trade his rd 2 pick where the top guards will be—this could be next year’s second rounder instead)
i. The NFL chart suggests that this years first + next years first (assuming middle of the pack at 12.5% discount) + rd 3 this year get us to 2715; a 100 point favorite to the chart. Dropping round 3 to round 4 this year makes the Falcons a 50 point winner on the chart ii. By the AV chart all varieties of this trade massively favor the Rams
b. To move up to the 1st round pick, and keep by the NFL chart (and get TX interested), they’ll basically have to add about the value of a 2nd round pick to whatever the Rams would accept
c. I think Atlanta will be the highest bidder and will win with something slightly better than this year’s 1/3 + next years 1
Minn desperately need a QB. Really desperately. There is a lot of other talent on their offense, and a QB would make it all sing. Their defense is atrocious, which could lead them to be in the Clowney sweepstakes or try to move down a bit to get more talent. I don’t think they’ll be willing to outbid Atlanta so I think they only come into play if Clowney goes off the board at pick 1. Their GM has yet to publicly discuss making big moves up the draft board (of which I am aware). He did make an interesting trade last year to pick up a late 1st rounder.
a. Atlanta + 200 points on the trade chart (value of their 3rd rounder)
i. Trade look something like pick 6 this year, next year’s 1st, and rd 3 picks this and next year. Or picks 6 + rd 2 this year and rd 1 next year
ii. That price is very steep.
b. Something in-between the AV chart and the NFL chart could be in play here with Clowney off the table, and a trade of this years 1st and 3rd + next year’s 2nd rounder would still beat the AV chart, even if it gets crushed by the NFL chart