FanPost

On the Bubble 2015: Sam Bradford

"My agent said they can't cut me this year!"

Sambradford_medium

via upload.wikimedia.org

I received several pieces of hate mail saying that if I dissected some of the fans favorite players I’d better examine my home boy Sam Bradford. I think it’s only fair that I do that, even though I really hate to take that close of look, and start a big brouhaha!

But what the heck, we haven’t had a good Bradford argument for at least 24 hours so here goes.

How to read the PFF scores: ZERO (0.0) IS THE AVERAGE GRADE — If a player does something you would normally expect, then this scores a 0. If a linebacker makes an unblocked tackle 5 yards downfield or a tight end makes a wide-open catch for an 8-yard gain, they receive a score of 0 for that play.

Grades are given for plays which are reasonably considered to be better or worse than the average or expected play. So for example, if the linebacker were to then force a fumble on that tackle, that would constitute a positive play and a positive grade. If the tight end were to in fact drop the wide-open pass, that would constitute a negative play and a negative grade. (From PFF premium stats site.)

First the Career Grades:

2010 Ratings

Week

Game

Snaps

Overall

Pass

Rush

Penalty

1

ARZ @ SL

85 / 85

0.1

-0.1

0

0.2

2

SL @ OAK

56 / 56

-0.2

-0.3

0

0.1

3

WAS @ SL

81 / 81

-2.2

-2.3

-0.1

0.2

4

SEA @ SL

75 / 75

-0.2

-0.1

-0.3

0.2

5

SL @ DET

83 / 83

-2.4

-2.6

0

0.2

6

SD @ SL

77 / 77

0.7

-0.1

0.6

0.2

7

SL @ TB

64 / 64

0.3

0.2

-0.1

0.2

8

CAR @ SL

71 / 71

3.2

3.9

-0.9

0.2

10

SL @ SF

79 / 79

-1.7

-2.6

0.7

0.2

11

ATL @ SL

56 / 56

1

0.5

0.4

0.1

12

SL @ DEN

77 / 77

2.3

2.2

-0.1

0.2

13

SL @ ARZ

68 / 68

-1.7

-1.5

-0.4

0.2

14

SL @ NO

62 / 62

-1.8

-2.1

0.2

0.1

15

KC @ SL

72 / 72

-6

-6.1

-0.1

0.2

16

SF @ SL

70 / 70

0

-0.2

0

0.2

17

SL @ SEA

58 / 58

-1.7

-1.8

0

0.1

Totals

1,134

-10.3

-13

-0.1

2.8

2011 Ratings

Week

Game

Snaps

Overall

Pass

Rush

Penalty

1

PHI @ SL

64 / 73

-0.9

1

-2.1

0.2

2

SL @ NYG

69 / 69

3.2

2.8

0.2

0.2

3

BLT @ SL

67 / 67

2.5

3.2

-0.9

0.2

4

WAS @ SL

75 / 75

0.4

0.2

0

0.2

6

SL @ GB

79 / 79

0.7

1.3

-0.8

0.2

9

SL @ ARZ

81 / 81

-2.3

-1.9

-0.1

-0.3

10

SL @ CLV

62 / 63

-4.3

-4.3

0.4

-0.4

11

SEA @ SL

64 / 64

-2.4

-2.5

-0.1

0.2

12

ARZ @ SL

61 / 61

2.1

2

0

0.1

14

SL @ SEA

69 / 70

-2.4

-2.5

-0.1

0.2

Totals

691

-3.4

-0.7

-3.5

0.8

2012 Ratings

Week

Game

Snaps

Overall

Pass

Rush

Penalty

1

SL @ DET

58 / 58

2.1

2.1

-0.1

0.1

2

WAS @ SL

71 / 71

1.4

0.8

0.4

0.2

3

SL @ CHI

61 / 61

-0.2

-1

0.7

0.1

4

SEA @ SL

64 / 64

3.7

4

0

-0.3

5

ARZ @ SL

57 / 57

-0.2

0

-0.3

0.1

6

SL @ MIA

75 / 75

2.6

3

-0.1

-0.3

7

GB @ SL

63 / 63

-4

-3.7

0

-0.3

8

NE @ SL

57 / 64

-0.5

0.5

-0.1

-0.9

10

SL @ SF

88 / 88

0.7

3.1

-1.6

-0.8

11

NYJ @ SL

70 / 70

-4.5

-5.1

0.4

0.2

12

SL @ ARZ

60 / 61

0.1

0.1

-0.1

0.1

13

SF @ SL

75 / 75

1.3

0.5

0.6

0.2

14

SL @ BUF

69 / 69

-1.1

-1.5

0.2

0.2

15

MIN @ SL

85 / 85

2.2

1.8

0.2

0.2

16

SL @ TB

55 / 55

-0.1

-0.2

0

0.1

17

SL @ SEA

68 / 68

-0.4

0

0.4

-0.8

Totals

1,076

3.1

4.4

0.6

-1.9

2013 Ratings

Week

Game

Snaps

Overall

Pass

Rush

Penalty

1

ARZ @ SL

71 / 71

-0.5

1.2

-1.9

0.2

2

SL @ ATL

77 / 77

-0.7

-1.1

0.2

0.2

3

SL @ DAL

70 / 70

0.7

0.5

0

0.2

4

SF @ SL

69 / 69

-5.9

-6.1

0

0.2

5

JAX @ SL

73 / 73

-0.8

-0.7

-0.3

0.2

6

SL @ HST

47 / 47

2.2

2.2

-0.1

0.1

7

SL @ CAR

56 / 62

5.5

5.5

-0.1

0.1

Totals

463

0.5

1.5

-2.2

1.2

So here is a summation of these charts:

Year

#

Name

Games

Snaps

Overall

Pass

Run

Penalty

2013

20

Sam Bradford

7

463

0.5

1.5

-2.2

1.2

2012

23

Sam Bradford

16

1076

3.1

4.4

0.6

-1.9

2011

25

Sam Bradford

10

691

-3.4

-0.7

-3.5

0.8

2010

31

Sam Bradford

16

1134

-10.3

-13

-0.1

2.8

Totals

49

3364

-10.1

-7.8

-5.2

2.9

There are a couple of things that stand out right away. The first is Sam has shown improvement every year, even in the year’s he did not play all 16 games or was playing hurt.

The second major thing that often gets overlooked is total amount of playing time. Everyone keeps saying how he is going into his fifth season. If you look at the total number of games he’s actually played in, it equals three 16 game seasons. To me that means he has three years of actual game experience… not four.

It would be more prudent to complain about his injury history than carp about his FIFTH year.

It’s very true that Sam has missed 15 games out of 64, and that is a concern. His ACL was a fluke injury but still it took him out of over half of the 2013 season.

Year

#

Name

Games

Snaps

Overall

Pass

Run

Penalty

2013

20

Sam Bradford

7

463

0.5

1.5

-2.2

1.2

2012

23

Sam Bradford

16

1076

3.1

4.4

0.6

-1.9

2011

25

Sam Bradford

10

691

-3.4

-0.7

-3.5

0.8

2010

31

Sam Bradford

Totals

33

2230

0.2

5.2

-5.1

0.1

If we throw out his rookie year, we get a true picture of his ability to throw the football. His overall average is hurt by his lack of rushing, but the passing score is quite good considering the young and bad receiver’s he’s had to work with.

In the above scenario we can see why having a good running game is important to the success of Sam and the team. Sam doesn’t run, and that is very evident by his run scores.

As usual I’ve selected last year’s players above and below his number 20 rating. Then will compare what kind of money that performance has paid others. Keep in mind that having only played seven games he could have been better or worse at the seasons end. We just have to use what is available. Also I broke my crystal ball last night.

Carson Palmer came in at number 19, and Ryan Fitzpatrick was number 21.

According to Over the Cap: "Palmer, acquired by the Cardinals via trade with the Raiders in 2013, signed a two year contract worth $16 million. Palmer received a $6 million signing bonus and $2 million in fully guaranteed salary in both 2013 and 2014. Palmer can earn up to $4 million in incentives. The 2015 season is a voidable year and only included to prorate his signing bonus."

Carson Palmer

Year

Base

Prorated

Roster

Workout

Other

Cap

Dead

Cap

Salary

Bonus

Bonus

Bonus

Bonus

Number

Money

Savings

2013

$2,000,000

$2,000,000

$0

$0

$0

$4,000,000

$10,000,000

($6,000,000)

2014

$9,000,000

$2,000,000

$0

$0

$1,000,000

$12,000,000

$7,000,000

$5,000,000

2015

$10,000,000

$2,000,000

$0

$0

$0

$12,000,000

$2,000,000

$10,000,000

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Year

Base

Prorated

Roster

Workout

Other

Cap

Dead

Cap

Salary

Bonus

Bonus

Bonus

Bonus

Number

Money

Savings

2013

$1,500,000

$875,000

$0

$0

$0

$2,375,000

$1,750,000

$625,000

2014

$2,750,000

$875,000

$500,000

$0

$0

$4,125,000

$875,000

$3,250,000

Per Over the Cap: "Sam Bradford signed a 6 year contract worth $78 million Bradford received a $2.88 million roster bonus in 2010 and $17.975 million salary advance in 2011. The contract contained $50 million in guarantees including his base salaries from 2010 through 2013 and an $8.43 million roster bonus which was earned in 2011."

Sam Bradford

Year

Base

Prorated

Roster

Workout

Other

Cap

Dead

Cap

Salary

Bonus

Bonus

Bonus

Bonus

Number

Money

Savings

2010

$320,000

$0

$2,880,000

$0

$0

$3,200,000

$24,000,000

($20,800,000)

2011

$450,000

$3,595,000

$8,420,000

$0

$0

$12,465,000

$46,800,000

($34,335,000)

2012

$6,000,000

$3,595,000

$6,000,000

$0

$0

$15,595,000

$34,380,000

($18,785,000)

2013

$9,000,000

$3,595,000

$0

$0

$0

$12,595,000

$18,785,000

($6,190,000)

2014

$14,015,000

$3,595,000

$0

$0

$0

$17,610,000

$7,190,000

$10,420,000

2015

$12,985,000

$3,595,000

$0

$0

$0

$16,580,000

$3,595,000

$12,985,000

Seeing that Carson Palmer’s $12M compared to Sam’s $17.6M for 2014, really doesn’t bother me too much. For me it’s not a stretch to see Sam making $5M more than Carson. I think Sam is much better than Carson Palmer. You might have a different opinion but that’s fine.

Conclusion:

Is Sam Bradford on the bubble for 2015?

Absolutely but I don’t think there was any doubt about that. I think every QB is on the bubble… every year, regardless of salary. Teams want to win, and that is the first position they look at changing.

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