FanPost

On the Bubble 2015: Jake Long

On the Bubble 2015: Jake Long

Jake-long_medium

via www.rantsports.com

My last installment of Rams players who are drawing big money takes a look at Jake Long.

Jake is scheduled to make a base salary of $8 Million plus a prorated bonus of $1.25 Million. That brings his cap hit this year up to $9.25M. Dead money equals $7.75M which means he won’t be going anywhere this coming season.

The question is will he recover well enough to play, and at the same level as 2013? Time will tell, but in 2015 his dead money drops to $2.5M and in 2016 $1.25M. It could very well be the time to look for a replacement in this year’s draft.

So in keeping with the other articles we’ll take a look at his career stats, how he’s done for the Rams and try to determine if he’s worth all of that money.

How to read the PFF scores: ZERO (0.0) IS THE AVERAGE GRADE — If a player does something you would normally expect, then this scores a 0. If a linebacker makes an unblocked tackle 5 yards downfield or a tight end makes a wide-open catch for an 8-yard gain, they receive a score of 0 for that play.

Grades are given for plays which are reasonably considered to be better or worse than the average or expected play. So for example, if the linebacker were to then force a fumble on that tackle, that would constitute a positive play and a positive grade. If the tight end were to in fact drop the wide-open pass, that would constitute a negative play and a negative grade. (From PFF premium stats site.)

First up a look at his career grades since 2008:

Ratings 2008

Week

Game

Pos

Snaps

Overall

Pass Block

Screen Block

Run Block

Penalty

1

NYJ @ MIA

LT

66 / 66

3.4

3.4

0

1.6

-1.6

2

MIA @ ARZ

LT

62 / 62

2.5

0.5

0

1.6

0.4

3

MIA @ NE

LT

58 / 58

3.4

0.4

0

2.6

0.4

5

SD @ MIA

LT

72 / 72

4.8

0.7

0

3.6

0.5

6

MIA @ HST

LT

53 / 53

0.9

-0.6

0

1.1

0.4

7

BLT @ MIA

LT

61 / 61

2.3

2.3

0

-0.4

0.4

8

BUF @ MIA

LT

60 / 60

0.6

1.1

0

-0.9

0.4

9

MIA @ DEN

LT

75 / 75

0.7

2.6

0

-1.4

-0.5

10

SEA @ MIA

LT

67 / 67

3.3

0.7

0

2.1

0.5

11

OAK @ MIA

LT

63 / 63

1.3

-0.2

0

1.1

0.4

12

NE @ MIA

LT

56 / 68

-1.5

-0.5

0

-0.4

-0.6

13

MIA @ SL

LT

64 / 64

-1.8

-1.3

0

1.1

-1.6

14

MIA @ BUF

LT

68 / 68

1.2

1.6

0

-0.9

0.5

15

SF @ MIA

LT

46 / 46

2.9

1

0

1.6

0.3

16

MIA @ KC

LT

66 / 66

4.4

1.4

0

2.6

0.4

17

MIA @ NYJ

LT

64 / 64

1.3

-0.7

0

1.6

0.4

WC

BLT @ MIA

LT

67 / 67

2.6

3

0

-0.9

0.5

TOTALS

1,068

32.3

15.4

0

15.7

1.2

Ratings 2009

Week

Game

Pos

Snaps

Overall

Pass Block

Screen Block

Run Block

Penalty

1

MIA @ ATL

LT

59 / 59

0

-2.5

0

2.1

0.4

2

IND @ MIA

LT

88 / 88

1.3

2

0

-1.3

0.6

3

MIA @ SD

LT

69 / 69

2.4

1.3

0

0.6

0.5

4

BUF @ MIA

LT

75 / 75

0.7

0.1

0

1.1

-0.5

5

NYJ @ MIA

LT

67 / 67

3.6

2

0

1.1

0.5

7

NO @ MIA

LT

74 / 74

2.4

1.8

0

0.1

0.5

8

MIA @ NYJ

LT

54 / 54

2.6

2.1

0

0.1

0.4

9

MIA @ NE

LT

73 / 73

0.9

1.8

0

-1.4

0.5

10

TB @ MIA

LT

71 / 71

3.4

2.3

0

0.6

0.5

11

MIA @ CAR

LT

64 / 64

4.1

2.1

0

1.6

0.4

12

MIA @ BUF

LT

75 / 75

4.9

2.3

0

3.6

-1

13

NE @ MIA

LT

82 / 82

2.9

3.2

0

-0.9

0.6

14

MIA @ JAX

LT

72 / 72

6.7

2.1

0

4.1

0.5

15

MIA @ TEN

LT

83 / 83

0.6

1.9

0

-0.9

-0.4

16

HST @ MIA

LT

80 / 80

1.4

0.3

0

0.6

0.5

17

PIT @ MIA

LT

61 / 61

1.6

1.6

0

-0.4

0.4

TOTALS

1,147

39.5

24.4

0

10.7

4.4

Ratings 2010

Week

Game

Pos

Snaps

Overall

Pass Block

Screen Block

Run Block

Penalty

1

MIA @ BUF

LT

75 / 75

2.8

1.7

-0.5

1.1

0.5

2

MIA @ MIN

LT

50 / 50

0.8

-0.6

0

1.1

0.3

3

NYJ @ MIA

LT

74 / 74

5

3.4

0

1.1

0.5

4

NE @ MIA

LT

73 / 73

2

2.4

0

0.1

-0.5

6

MIA @ GB

LT

82 / 82

5.1

2.9

0.5

1.1

0.6

7

PIT @ MIA

LT

59 / 59

1.6

2.1

0

0.1

-0.6

8

MIA @ CIN

LT

70 / 73

2.4

0.8

0

2.1

-0.5

9

MIA @ BLT

LT

56 / 56

2.2

2.3

0

0.5

-0.6

10

TEN @ MIA

LT

63 / 69

4.3

2.8

0

1.1

0.4

11

CHI @ MIA

LT

42 / 50

-3.5

-3.3

0

-0.5

0.3

12

MIA @ OAK

LT

85 / 88

2.2

0.4

0

2.2

-0.4

13

CLV @ MIA

LT

67 / 67

2.7

1.1

0

1.1

0.5

14

MIA @ NYJ

LT

59 / 59

1.8

1.8

0

0.6

-0.6

15

BUF @ MIA

LT

69 / 69

1.9

1.3

0

1.1

-0.5

16

DET @ MIA

LT

89 / 89

3.3

3.6

0

0.1

-0.4

17

MIA @ NE

LT

61 / 61

0.1

0.6

0.5

-1.4

0.4

TOTALS

1,074

34.7

23.3

0.5

11.5

-0.6

Ratings 2011

Week

Game

Pos

Snaps

Overall

Pass Block

Screen Block

Run Block

Penalty

1

NE @ MIA

LT

77 / 77

-1.4

-1.5

0

-0.4

0.5

2

HST @ MIA

LT

62 / 62

2.5

1.5

0

1.6

-0.6

3

MIA @ CLV

LT

76 / 76

-1.1

0.3

0

-1.9

0.5

4

MIA @ SD

LT

57 / 57

-1.7

-0.7

0

-1.4

0.4

6

MIA @ NYJ

LT

65 / 65

2.1

1.1

0

0.6

0.4

7

DEN @ MIA

LT

70 / 70

2.2

0.6

0

1.1

0.5

8

MIA @ NYG

LT

56 / 56

-0.8

-0.8

0

-0.4

0.4

9

MIA @ KC

LT

49 / 49

2.6

1.7

0.5

0.1

0.3

10

WAS @ MIA

LT

69 / 69

2.4

1.3

0

0.6

0.5

11

BUF @ MIA

LT

52 / 58

1.2

0.7

0

0.1

0.4

12

MIA @ DAL

LT

69 / 69

-0.6

1.8

0

1.1

-3.5

13

OAK @ MIA

LT

75 / 75

3.7

2.1

0

1.1

0.5

14

PHI @ MIA

LT

7 / 67

0.3

0.3

0

0

0

16

MIA @ NE

LT

17 / 70

0.7

0.6

0

0

0.1

TOTALS

801

12.1

9

0.5

2.2

0.4

Ratings 2012

Week

Game

Pos

Snaps

Overall

Pass Block

Screen Block

Run Block

Penalty

1

MIA @ HST

LT

63 / 63

1.2

2.2

0

-0.4

-0.6

2

OAK @ MIA

LT

75 / 75

0.9

0.3

0

1.1

-0.5

3

NYJ @ MIA

LT

85 / 85

-0.5

1.8

0.5

-3.4

0.6

4

MIA @ ARZ

LT

78 / 78

-2.2

1.2

-0.5

-3.4

0.5

5

MIA @ CIN

LT

66 / 66

2.6

0.1

0

2.1

0.4

6

SL @ MIA

LT

55 / 55

0.5

1.5

0

0.6

-1.6

8

MIA @ NYJ

LT

63 / 63

0.9

0.4

0

0.1

0.4

9

MIA @ IND

LT

67 / 67

-5.5

-5.1

0

1.1

-1.5

10

TEN @ MIA

LT

60 / 60

2.5

2.5

0

0.1

-0.1

11

MIA @ BUF

LT

62 / 62

-0.1

1.4

0

-1.9

0.4

12

SEA @ MIA

LT

60 / 60

-0.3

-2.3

0

1.6

0.4

13

NE @ MIA

LT

11 / 63

-0.4

-1

0

0.5

0.1

TOTALS

745

-0.4

3

0

-1.9

-1.5

Ratings 2013

Week

Game

Pos

Snaps

Overall

Pass Block

Screen Block

Run Block

Penalty

1

ARZ @ SL

LT

71 / 71

-0.1

-0.7

0

0.1

0.5

2

SL @ ATL

LT

77 / 77

3.2

1.1

0

1.6

0.5

3

SL @ DAL

LT

63 / 70

0.9

-0.5

0

1

0.4

4

SF @ SL

LT

68 / 69

1.8

1.7

-0.5

0.1

0.5

5

JAX @ SL

LT

73 / 73

2.3

0.7

0

1.1

0.5

6

SL @ HST

LT

47 / 47

2.6

0.2

0.5

1.6

0.3

7

SL @ CAR

LT

62 / 62

-0.7

-0.2

0

-0.9

0.4

8

SEA @ SL

LT

80 / 80

5.9

2.3

0

4.1

-0.5

9

TEN @ SL

LT

71 / 71

3.3

2.2

0

0.6

0.5

10

SL @ IND

LT

55 / 56

-0.3

-0.3

0

-0.4

0.4

12

CHI @ SL

LT

56 / 56

3.4

0.9

0

2.1

0.4

13

SL @ SF

LT

36 / 70

0

-0.3

0

0.1

0.2

14

SL @ ARZ

LT

56 / 56

0

-1

0

1.6

-0.6

15

NO @ SL

LT

54 / 54

2.9

0.9

0

1.6

0.4

16

TB @ SL

LT

3 / 62

0.6

0.1

0

0.5

0

TOTALS

872

25.8

7.1

0

14.8

3.9

Now we’ll take a look at how he rated last year compared to the top 10 out of 73 LT’s.

#

Name

Team

Snaps

Overall

Pass Block

Screen Block

Run Block

Penalty

QB Sk

QB Ht

QB Hu

1

Trent Williams

WAS

1170

38.3

23

1

9.4

4.9

8

6

21

2

Joe Thomas

CLV

1149

35.2

29.8

1.5

3

0.9

2

9

26

3

Jordan Gross

CAR

1014

33.5

21.6

0.5

4.6

6.8

6

1

22

4

Jason Peters

PHI

1040

30

15.2

1.5

9.1

4.2

4

3

28

5

Tyron Smith

DAL

1023

28.3

17.8

1

6.4

3.1

1

3

27

6

Joe Staley

SF

958

27.7

15

0.5

8.5

3.7

4

2

14

7

Zach Strief

NO

1062

26.5

21.7

-0.5

-0.1

5.4

3

4

26

8

Jake Long

SL

872

25.8

7.1

0

14.8

3.9

6

4

22

9

Nate Solder

NE

1104

25.6

12.2

0.5

6.5

6.4

10

2

23

10

Phil Loadholt

MIN

970

25

11.9

0

9.6

3.5

4

5

27

Jake Long Career

Year

Score

# of Games

2008

32.3

18

2009

39.5

16

2010

34.7

16

2011

12.1

14

2012

-0.4

12

2013

25.8

15

Jake comes in at number 8 in the ratings for 2013. That is pretty respectable, but we need to see how much he is being paid compared to a few others.

Let’s talk money for a minute. Jake Long’s contract is for four years and $34 million, with incentives that might push it to $36 million. Currently it looks like this according to over the cap.

Jake Long

Year

Base

Prorated

Roster

Cap

Dead

Cap

Salary

Bonus

Bonus

Number

Money

Savings

2013

$3,000,000

$1,250,000

$0

$4,250,000

$12,000,000

($7,750,000)

2014

$8,000,000

$1,250,000

$0

$9,250,000

$7,750,000

$1,500,000

2015

$9,250,000

$1,250,000

$0

$10,500,000

$2,500,000

$8,000,000

2016

$8,750,000

$1,250,000

$0

$10,000,000

$1,250,000

$8,750,000

Keeping his numbers in mind let’s see what this year’s number one rated LT has for a contract. Trent Williams signed a 6 year $60M dollar deal. Here’s the current dollars showing.

Trent Williams

Year

Base

Prorated

Roster

Cap

Dead

Cap

Salary

Bonus

Bonus

Number

Money

Savings

2010

$2,398,000

$500,000

$0

$2,898,000

$18,879,000

($15,981,000)

2011

$7,852,000

$2,000,000

$0

$8,004,471

$33,852,000

($25,847,529)

2012

$11,000,000

$1,980,393

$1,000,000

$13,980,393

$23,921,572

($9,941,179)

2013

$5,000,000

$1,980,393

$1,000,000

$7,980,393

$10,941,179

($2,960,786)

2014

$7,250,000

$1,980,393

$1,750,000

$10,980,393

$3,960,786

$7,019,607

2015

$10,250,000

$1,480,393

$2,000,000

$13,730,393

$1,480,393

$12,250,000

It appears that cap savings were made by use of Roster and Prorated bonuses. This might be a strategy the Rams use to gain some more space.

Now I’ll put up the number 9 rated player just under Jake Long and see what kind of money he is making currently.

Nate Solder

Year

Base

Prorated

Roster

Cap

Dead

Cap

Salary

Bonus

Bonus

Number

Money

Savings

2011

$375,000

$1,177,817

$0

$1,552,817

$7,770,686

($6,217,869)

2012

$763,204

$1,177,817

$0

$1,941,021

$6,217,869

($4,276,848)

2013

$1,151,408

$1,177,817

$0

$2,329,225

$4,276,848

($1,947,623)

2014

$769,806

$1,177,817

$769,806

$2,717,429

$1,947,623

$769,806

If you divide out the grand totals just using the contract value you find an average yearly salary for Jake running $8.5M per year. Trent Williams at $10M per year, and Nate came in 2011 with the new CBA.

Solder signed a contract on August 4, 2011; per the new CBA, it was a four-year deal worth $8.54 million including a $4.7 million signing bonus. His salary averages out to $2.1M per year. That’s quite a big difference from being rated 9th to Jake Long’s rating of number 8.

This is a really tuff situation to figure out.

Facts:

Jake Long tore his ACL and MCL, a long shot to be back ready to play by the start of the season.

Rodger Saffold is a free agent.

Cutting Long would cost $7.75 in dead money.

Drafting a new LT would be a lot cheaper but risky.

Things to think about:

Should we keep Saffold and pay him big money to fill in for Jake?

I say no, and here’s why.

Rodger Saffold at LT

2010

-4.1

16

2011

-9

9

2012

8.6

10

2013

0.5

1

Saffold’s best year is well below Long’s worst year. Maybe keep him as a Guard? Saffold scored number 19 out of 73 this year as a guard in 6 games, but what about his free agent money?

And how about how he is always injured, how can he be a good fill in for Long if he’s always injured?

Conclusion:

Jake Long will be kept in 2015 if he plays well in 2014

The O-line needs some help badly!

Jake Matthews anyone?

Fisher is going to have to draft early to get quality help and it will save money in the long run.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Turf Show Times

You must be a member of Turf Show Times to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Turf Show Times. You should read them.

Join Turf Show Times

You must be a member of Turf Show Times to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Turf Show Times. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker