FanPost

On The Bubble: 2015 Chris Long

Chris-long-st

via Rams2.jpg">www.rantsports.com

In the first iteration of this article I was shot down in flames due to my lack of understanding dead money and contracts in general. I apologize for that lack of knowledge, and thank those who pointed this out to me. I also appreciate you folks for not resorting to the "Lets Tar & Feather OCR" option. I’ll try to be more careful in the future.

In spite of my previous article I think this information is still valid and is tied to this year’s possible draft options. Chris Long is not on the bubble for this year, but he definitely will be this time next year unless he produces a stellar season.

In this segment I’m going to take a look at the number 2 highest cap hit the Rams will face in the this year. The number two man is Chris Long DE whose cap hit is only $2.71M less than our favorite money hog Mr. Sammy "Show me the money!" Bradford.

First we’ll take a look at Chris’s career stats from PFF premium. I’m only going to post his main scores due to lack of space. Sack’s, hurries, Hit’s etc. is going to have to come off these charts for now, but the main scores tell the story. They are a composite of overall performance, and should give us a pretty good look at performance/salary so we can come to our own conclusions.

How to read the scores: ZERO (0.0) IS THE AVERAGE GRADE — If a player does something you would normally expect, then this scores a 0. If a linebacker makes an unblocked tackle 5 yards downfield or a tight end makes a wide-open catch for an 8-yard gain, they receive a score of 0 for that play.

Grades are given for plays which are reasonably considered to be better or worse than the average or expected play. So for example, if the linebacker were to then force a fumble on that tackle, that would constitute a positive play and a positive grade. If the tight end were to in fact drop the wide-open pass, that would constitute a negative play and a negative grade. (From PFF premium stats site.)

I did look at his position and he is being used properly unlike we saw with Cortland Finnegan.

DRE

DLE

-0.4

3.1

Chris is a natural on the left side and that’s where he should stay if we keep him.

2008 Ratings

Week

Game

Pos

Snaps

Overall

Run Def.

Pass Rush

Pass Cov.

Penalty

1

SL @ PHI

DRE

65 / 75

0.9

-0.1

0.7

0

0.3

2

NYG @ SL

DLE

59 / 65

-2

-0.6

-1.7

0

0.3

3

SL @ SEA

DLE

55 / 72

-1.3

-0.6

-0.9

0

0.2

4

BUF @ SL

DRE

44 / 65

-0.4

-0.1

-0.5

0

0.2

6

SL @ WAS

DRE

35 / 68

0.2

0.4

-0.4

0

0.2

7

DAL @ SL

DRE

53 / 66

0.3

-1.6

1.7

0

0.2

8

SL @ NE

DRE

45 / 66

1.4

-0.6

0.8

1

0.2

9

ARZ @ SL

DRE

57 / 75

0.8

-0.1

0.6

0

0.3

10

SL @ NYJ

DRE

43 / 65

0.4

-0.1

0.3

0

0.2

11

SL @ SF

DRE

46 / 63

-1

-0.6

-0.6

0

0.2

12

CHI @ SL

DRE

34 / 66

0.8

0.9

-0.3

0

0.2

13

MIA @ SL

DRE

49 / 64

0.6

-0.6

1

0

0.2

14

SL @ ARZ

DRE

42 / 59

-2.4

-0.6

-2

0

0.2

15

SEA @ SL

DRE

28 / 58

2.1

2.9

-0.9

0

0.1

16

SF @ SL

DRE

33 / 58

0.7

-0.5

1.1

0

0.1

17

SL @ ATL

DRE

45 / 58

-5.2

-4.6

-0.8

0

0.2

TOTALS

-4.1

-6.5

-1.9

1

3.3

2009 Ratings

Week

Game

Pos

Snaps

Overall

Run Def.

Pass Rush

Pass Cov.

Penalty

1

SL @ SEA

DRE

57 / 70

-2.4

-0.1

-2.6

0

0.3

2

SL @ WAS

DLE

50 / 73

2

2.4

-0.6

0

0.2

3

GB @ SL

DRE

42 / 66

0.8

-0.1

0.2

0.5

0.2

4

SL @ SF

DRE

43 / 60

-0.4

0.4

-1

0

0.2

5

MIN @ SL

DRE

34 / 55

-1.1

0.4

-1.7

0

0.2

6

SL @ JAX

DRE

83 / 89

1.5

2.4

-1.3

0

0.4

7

IND @ SL

DRE

63 / 64

-0.4

0.4

-1.1

0

0.3

8

SL @ DET

DRE

54 / 74

-2.9

-1.6

-1.5

0

0.2

10

NO @ SL

DRE

37 / 58

0.8

-2.1

2.7

0

0.2

11

ARZ @ SL

DRE

26 / 67

0.3

-0.5

0.7

0

0.1

12

SEA @ SL

DRE

38 / 59

-2.3

-3.1

0.6

0

0.2

13

SL @ CHI

DRE

44 / 60

-0.2

-0.6

0.2

0

0.2

14

SL @ TEN

DRE

51 / 60

-0.6

-0.6

0.8

0

-0.8

15

HST @ SL

DLE

66 / 66

-0.4

0.4

-1.1

0

0.3

16

SL @ ARZ

DRE

76 / 76

1.5

-0.1

2.3

-1

0.3

17

SF @ SL

DLE

60 / 65

1.5

1.4

1.3

-0.5

-0.7

TOTALS

-2.3

-1

-2.1

-1

1.8

2010 Ratings

Week

Game

Pos

Snaps

Overall

Run Def.

Pass Rush

Pass Cov.

Penalty

1

ARZ @ SL

DLE

63 / 69

0.5

-1.1

1.8

-0.5

0.3

2

SL @ OAK

DLE

83 / 86

3.2

1.3

1.5

0

0.4

3

WAS @ SL

DLE

56 / 58

3.4

0.4

3.7

0

-0.7

4

SEA @ SL

DLE

56 / 66

1

-0.6

1.3

0

0.3

5

SL @ DET

DLE

60 / 68

-1.5

-0.6

-0.7

-0.5

0.3

6

SD @ SL

DLE

60 / 64

-1

-1.6

-0.2

0.5

0.3

7

SL @ TB

DLE

66 / 72

1.8

-2.1

4.1

-0.5

0.3

8

CAR @ SL

DLE

54 / 57

3.9

-0.1

4.3

-0.5

0.2

10

SL @ SF

DLE

62 / 66

7.4

1.4

5.2

0.5

0.3

11

ATL @ SL

DLE

68 / 77

-6.4

-3.1

-2.1

-0.5

-0.7

12

SL @ DEN

DLE

59 / 66

2

0.9

0.8

0

0.3

13

SL @ ARZ

DLE

50 / 56

-5.6

-3.1

-1.7

0

-0.8

14

SL @ NO

DLE

56 / 71

-0.8

-1.1

0

0

0.3

15

KC @ SL

DLE

64 / 77

3.3

-0.1

3.1

0

0.3

16

SF @ SL

DLE

60 / 62

0

-1.1

0.8

0

0.3

17

SL @ SEA

DLE

71 / 75

-2.3

-2.6

0

0

0.3

TOTALS

8.9

-13.2

21.9

-1.5

1.7

2011 Ratings

Week

Game

Pos

Snaps

Overall

Run Def.

Pass Rush

Pass Cov.

Penalty

1

PHI @ SL

DLE

59 / 72

-1.2

-2.6

1.6

-0.5

0.3

2

SL @ NYG

DLE

68 / 76

3.5

-2.1

5.3

0

0.3

3

BLT @ SL

DLE

62 / 83

1.4

-0.5

1.1

0.5

0.3

4

WAS @ SL

DLE

57 / 72

-1.8

-1.6

0.5

-1

0.3

6

SL @ GB

DLE

59 / 63

-0.2

1.9

-2.4

0

0.3

7

SL @ DAL

DLE

53 / 65

-2.9

-2.1

-1

0

0.2

8

NO @ SL

DLE

61 / 72

5

-2.1

7.8

-1

0.3

9

SL @ ARZ

DLE

55 / 59

5.6

0.9

5.5

0

-0.8

10

SL @ CLV

DLE

61 / 64

-1.5

-3.1

1.3

0

0.3

11

SEA @ SL

DLE

61 / 75

1.5

0.4

0.8

0

0.3

12

ARZ @ SL

DLE

61 / 67

-0.3

-1.1

0

0.5

0.3

13

SL @ SF

DLE

58 / 69

-1.2

-2.1

0.6

0

0.3

14

SL @ SEA

DLE

54 / 72

3.6

1.4

2

0

0.2

15

CIN @ SL

DLE

60 / 72

-0.5

0.9

-0.2

-0.5

-0.7

16

SL @ PIT

DLE

51 / 54

-0.9

-1.1

1

0

-0.8

17

SF @ SL

DLE

67 / 71

-0.7

-1.6

1.6

0

-0.7

TOTALS

9.4

-14.5

25.5

-2

0.4

2012 Ratings

Week

Game

Pos

Snaps

Overall

Run Def.

Pass Rush

Pass Cov.

Penalty

1

SL @ DET

DLE

60 / 69

-0.7

-0.6

0.6

0

-0.7

2

WAS @ SL

DLE

50 / 63

3.5

-0.6

3.9

0

0.2

3

SL @ CHI

DLE

54 / 72

2.4

-1.1

3.3

0

0.2

4

SEA @ SL

DLE

48 / 63

4.4

0.4

3.8

0

0.2

5

ARZ @ SL

DLE

63 / 82

3.6

0.5

3.8

0

-0.7

6

SL @ MIA

DLE

45 / 55

1.3

0.9

1.2

0

-0.8

7

GB @ SL

DLE

55 / 70

-4.3

0.9

-2.4

0

-2.8

8

NE @ SL

DLE

61 / 72

-3.6

-2.1

-1.8

0

0.3

10

SL @ SF

DLE

58 / 67

4.8

0.4

4.1

0

0.3

11

NYJ @ SL

DLE

48 / 66

-1.3

-1.6

0.1

0

0.2

12

SL @ ARZ

DLE

67 / 80

-4.1

-3.1

-1.3

0

0.3

13

SF @ SL

DLE

67 / 77

0.5

-1.1

1.3

0

0.3

14

SL @ BUF

DLE

49 / 58

1.4

0.4

-0.2

1

0.2

15

MIN @ SL

DLE

49 / 60

-0.6

0.4

-1.2

0

0.2

16

SL @ TB

DLE

71 / 85

-2.3

-0.1

-0.5

0

-1.7

17

SL @ SEA

DLE

55 / 65

0.6

-2.6

3

0

0.2

TOTALS

5.6

-9

17.7

1

-4.1

2013 Ratings

Week

Game

Pos

Snaps

Overall

Run Def.

Pass Rush

Pass Cov.

Penalty

1

ARZ @ SL

DLE

64 / 71

4.4

0.4

3.7

0

0.3

2

SL @ ATL

DLE

55 / 65

-0.3

0.9

-0.4

0

-0.8

3

SL @ DAL

DLE

49 / 62

-3.1

-1.6

-1.7

0

0.2

4

SF @ SL

DLE

62 / 71

-0.8

-0.6

-0.5

0

0.3

5

JAX @ SL

DLE

55 / 60

0.1

-0.6

0

0.5

0.2

6

SL @ HST

DLE

56 / 77

-1.1

0.4

-0.8

0

-0.7

7

SL @ CAR

DLE

26 / 62

-1.6

0.5

0.8

0

-2.9

8

SEA @ SL

DLE

38 / 45

1.9

-0.5

2.2

0

0.2

9

TEN @ SL

DLE

51 / 62

3.1

-0.6

3.5

0

0.2

10

SL @ IND

DLE

52 / 77

-0.6

0

0.2

0

-0.8

12

CHI @ SL

DLE

64 / 80

0.8

-1.6

2.1

0

0.3

13

SL @ SF

DLE

51 / 70

0.5

2.4

-0.1

0

-1.8

14

SL @ ARZ

DLE

52 / 70

-0.3

0.9

-1.4

0

0.2

15

NO @ SL

DLE

71 / 87

0.1

2.4

-1.6

0

-0.7

16

TB @ SL

DLE

55 / 60

0.8

-1.1

1.7

0

0.2

17

SL @ SEA

DLE

56 / 68

-1.7

-1.1

0.6

0.5

-1.7

TOTALS

2.2

0.2

8.3

1

-7.3

Alright now you’ve had a chance to see his career grades and you’ve probably noticed already that his performance has dropped the last couple of seasons. Whether that is due to injury or the emergence of Robert Quinn really doesn’t matter, because we want to look at him from a business perspective.

In 2013 Chris ranked number 23 according to PFF out of 52. This rating is only for DE’s in the 4-3 system, as 3-4 DE’s have their own charts.

I’ve picked all players ranked at about his same rating, and pulled their salaries so we could see if he is being over paid. These figures are from Over the Cap and include base plus any bonuses, not cap figures.

Rank

Player

Team

Grade

Year

Salary

21

Jason Pierre-Paul

NYG

2.7

2014

$4,611,000

22

Ropati Pitoitua

TEN

2.3

2013

$1,000,000

23

Chandler Jones

NE

2.2

2014

$2,229,136

23

Chris Long

SL

2.2

2014

$14,900,000

As you can see there is a huge disparity between Chris and the other players with his performance scores. True some of this money was a push from his last restructure but the piper is going to have to be paid eventually.

It’s only logical to look at the top three DE’s and compare what they are currently making or are scheduled to make.

Rank

Player

Team

Grade

Year

Salary

1

Robert Quinn

SL

77.2

2014

$3,002,380

2

Cameron Wake

MIA

27.2

2014

$7,285,000

3

Greg Hardy

CAR

27

2013

$1,328,946

This show’s you just how much the rookie contract restructuring has affected cap issues. It seems preposterous to me that Chris Long is about to make approximately twice as much as Robert Quinn will make, assuming he ends up with a new contract making the equivalent of Cameron Wakes.

So as much as I think Chris was overpaid, apparently there is nothing to be done about it. Chris is safe due to all of the "Dead Money" it would take to cut him. Even with that being the case, 2015 would be an easier amount of dead money to deal with.

Year

Base

S. Bonus

Misc.

Cap Hit

Dead

2013

7,250,000

-

1,500,000

8,750,000

13,250,000

2014

13,200,000

-

1,700,000

14,900,000

17,700,000

2015

8,000,000

-

3,500,000

11,500,000

3,000,000

2016

9,750,000

-

3,500,000

13,250,000

All of this data is still relevant to the upcoming draft. Many want to draft a replacement for Sam Bradford immediately, or keep him and bring up a cheaper option to learn the game until Sam can be let go with less of a cap hit.

The same can be said about Chris Long’s contract. It’s entirely possible that another DE will be drafted. Not only because of Chris’s declining production but how it would improve the depth chart. It would give Williams more weapons…and fresh legs to attack with during the entire game.

You might be thinking " Jadeveon Clowney" right about now!

Usc-uga-011-clowney-flying_medium

via fitsnews.com

If we take Clowney 2nd in the draft… what is that going to cost?

My best guess is based on what the top drafted DE received in last year’s draft. Dion Jordan was drafted in the number 3 spot by Miami. His salary was a whopping $3,002,380.00 or about $12 Million less than what we are about to pay Chris Long this year. And $8.5 Million less than he will get in 2015.

Drafting a defensive player to replace Chris next year is a distinct possibility. I know he commands a lot of loyalty from the fans. Some of you don’t want to hear it any more than I want to see Sam Bradford replaced but there it is. 2014 might very well be the last year for both of them.

OCR

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