FanPost

Trade down vs pick at #2? Clear guidance we must deal down

I just watched Sam Bradford against Carolina, SF and Seatle. I then thought, after watching, that our Guards stunk it up and that the biggest other difference for Sam in these games would be the WR who can get open at will - really only Watkins or Lee in this draft or don't bother with anyone else.

Based on what games show me, these will make the difference. OG - Robinson, WR - Watkins, Safety - ???/Free agent? LB - Van Noy (Amazing blitzer and cover guy to help underneath vs quick pass, like another Ogletree), CB - a guy who can push to be our #1 corner. Fill out the rest of picks with OG, QB, CB, DT.

Now check out http://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/ draft simulator.

Try your own mocks starting with three different variations of These guys as our first picks, the only ones I see us taking:

  • Watkins
  • Clowney
  • Matthews
  • Robinson

I love the idea of getting Clowney, but every simulation I did factoring likely trade down scenarios had us ending up much better off with multiple 2nd and 3rd round picks. We won't be able to draft and keep Clowney as well as getting nearly as much just trading down off of the #13 spot. Clowney will not make it past Jacksonville and we are in good shape if Clowney goes first.

I also propose trading down a second time if we end up with Clowney a second time for the bounty as well.

When factoring trade downs to Cleveland, Oakland, Atlanta, etc Greg Robinson was always available at #13 and factoring in acquisition of at least another early 2 and 3, we are heaps better off. We probably will get more than a 2 and 3 trading down.

The draft simulator has some bonehead picks, but overall, we end up with many more options if Watkins is our first pick off a trade down.

If drafting Watkins 4-6th I always came up with these as the rest of the picks:

1 - Watkins WR

1 - Robinson OT

2 - Gabe Jackson or any safety you want or CB Gilbert

2 - Aaron Donald, Gabe Jackson or any safety you want

3 - Dion Bailey, Hakim Smith or Purifoy or Taj Boyd or Su'A-Filo

3 - Above #3 picks plus

Still on board round 4 = Hurst, Qbs, more safeties, CBs

I cannot see Gilbert and Clinton Dix making it out of round 1, but then who does that push down - a nice DT or an elite Guard which we also need. It only makes things look good for us in round 2 with our many needs.

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