The first time I heard the expression "toxic differential", I was taken aback. That is a term I immediately associated with statistical studies of toxic dump sites, or Chernobyl. How could that term relate to an NFL concept and statistical formula??
The expression "toxic differential" was coined by former NFL coach Brian Billick. Billick was the head coach of the Baltimore Ravens for 9 seasons - and led them to a Super Bowl victory - in the 2000 season.
From an article by Brian Billick - for NFL.com - in November, 2011:
"People are constantly looking for the right combination of stats to indicate the probable success of a team. What are the key factors to winning? Is it sacks, third-down conversions, first-down efficiency, the ability to run the ball and stop the run, total passing yards? All are important, but none are a precise indicator of success."
"Beginning in 1998, when I was the Vikings' offensive coordinator, I used a formula that I called the "toxic differential" as the best barometer for our team's success. Simply stated, the toxic differential is the correlation between turnovers and explosive plays."
"Turnover differential" is the difference between the number of giveaways [interceptions and fumble recoveries] an offense allows, and the number of takeaways [interceptions and fumble recoveries] a defense creates.
Big Play Differential
"Big play differential" is the difference between the number of big plays [running plays of 10+ yards plus passing plays of 20+ yards] an offense creates, and the number of big plays a defense allows.
"Toxic differential" is derived by adding together the "turnover differential" and "big play differential".
The 3 accompanying charts present the 2012 differential rankings, for all 32 NFL teams, in each of 3 categories: Turnovers - Big Plays - "Toxic". In 2012, the St. Louis Rams ranked: 23rd in "toxic differential" - 18th in "turnover differential" - and 27th in "big play differential".
2012 Toxic Differential Leaders
2012 Turnover Differential Leaders
|2||Kansas City Chiefs||-24|
|4||New York Jets||-14|
|15||St. Louis Rams||-1|
|18||San Diego Chargers||2|
|19||New Orleans Saints||2|
|20||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||3|
|23||Green Bay Packers||7|
|24||San Francisco 49ers||9|
|29||New York Giants||14|
|32||New England Patriots||25|
Of the 13 teams that won 10 or more games last year, 10 of them finished in the top 11 in turnover differential [9 playoff teams finished in the top 11]. The 4 teams that played in the conference championship games all finished in the top 9.
What would Jeff Fisher like to see his defense do better this season?:
"We had a stretch - I think we had a streak of about five or six games where we didn't have a turnover. I think we need to work consistently on turnovers and cause fumbles."
The Rams defense created 21 turnovers last season - 4 fumble recoveries and 17 interceptions. The Rams ranked 31st in the league in fumble recoveries, and 11th in interceptions.
On offense, the Rams were intercepted 14 times, and had 8 fumbles lost. They ranked 12th in interceptions thrown, and 15th in fumbles lost.
2012 Big Play Differential Leaders
|Team||Big Play Differential|
|4||New Orleans Saints||-23|
|6||St. Louis Rams||-20|
|10||Kansas City Chiefs||-13|
|13||San Diego Chargers||-11|
|16||New York Jets||-9|
|19||Green Bay Packers||-1|
|21||New York Giants||2|
|23||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||5|
|24||New England Patriots||12|
|32||San Francisco 49ers||63|
Of the 13 teams that won 10 or more games last year, 11 of them finished in the top 16 in "big play differential" [10 playoff teams finished in the top 16]. 3 of the 4 teams that played in the conference championship games ranked in the top 9. The Rams ranked 27th in "big play differential" for the 2012 season. They had 68 big plays offensively, while the defense gave up 88 big plays.
How important are "explosive"/"big plays" to scoring points [and preventing them] in the NFL?
From Mike Sando - ESPN:
"Last season, NFL teams averaged 0.7 points per drive without an explosive play and 3.8 points per drive with at least one of them"
From Ramblin' Fan - June 6, 2013:
"For quite a while now the Rams have been missing a guy that can make the big play. Every player on the Rams offense now has the ability to make the big play and it is essential that they do so. Making a big play is huge for an offense in two ways. One, is that it’s a huge momentum shifter. Take the Baltimore Ravens for example. The big play kept them alive all throughout the playoffs last season and they executed it perfectly when they needed it most. The big play also shortens drives in the good way. The offense can go from being deep in their side of the field to being in field goal range all in one play. Instead of having a 10+ play drive, you can have a 6-10 play drive. The offense doesn’t have to work as hard to get points on the board. Last season the Rams only had 68 big plays which ranked 22nd in the NFL. A big play is categorized as a running play that goes for 10+ yards and a passing play that goes for 20+ yards. The big play is also huge on defense. The Rams lost both of their safeties in the offseason and now have two inexperienced players. The Rams already allowed the 9th most big plays last season, having two new safeties won’t help the situation. The safeties cannot be a liability. With Palmer, Kaepernick, and Wilson all in the division, the Rams must protect the deep ball. If the Rams can generate some big plays on offense and limit their opponent from getting big plays, the playoffs could be within reach."
The Rams and the "Toxic Differential" in 2013
It's evident there is a correlation between the "toxic differential", and an NFL teams success on the field. The "toxic differential" will be a key to the Rams playoff aspirations in 2013. Their two divisional rivals [S.F. and Seattle] ranked in the top three, and both teams are among the Super Bowl favorites this year.
The chief reasons for the Rams' low "toxic differential" ranking?
- Too few fumbles forced by the defense.
- Too few big/explosive plays produced by the offense.
- Too many big/explosive plays allowed by the defense.
In relation to the "toxic differential" formula, do the Rams now have the pieces in place - to improve their Toxic Differential in 2013 - compete with their divisional rivals - and make the playoffs?