Once a year I gaze into my crystal ball and try to predict what will happen in the NFL draft. It has not let me down thus far. I have been wrong approximately 99.45% of the time. That is amazing (in)accuracy. Hopefully, this year I will be a little more accurate in my predictions. Or I will be getting a new crystal ball. As some of you may know, I like the horse races and 5 card stud poker. They both require playing the odds to some degree. With that in mind, I also present my updated odds on which position(s) the Rams will select in the first round, along with the odds of trading up/down.
1. There will be three quarterbacks drafted in the first round this year: They will come from the group of Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, E.J Manuel and Ryan Nassib. A team will trade up into the first round to select either Nassib, Manuel or Barkley.
2. The St. Louis Rams will openly listen to offers for both the #16 and #22 picks. The Rams will trade the #22 for second, third and fifth round picks, if indeed a trade down does occur. The Rams will trade the #16 pick into the latter part of the first round, again if a trade down does occur with that pick. One of Houston, Atlanta or Minnesota will trade up for the #16 pick. The additional compensation will include a second round pick or a third and fourth round pick, depending on the team that trades up. The Rams themselves will not trade up in the first round. The Rams will definitely trade down at least one of their two first round selections. In last years draft, the Rams conducted three trades. In this years draft they will conduct two trades: one in the first round, and one in the second or third round.
3. There will be ten trades involving selections in the first round. There were nine trades in 2012. The Rams will not trade Rodger Saffold.
4. It is conceivable that the Rams could draft two defensive players in the first round. If this occurs, the two selections will be from the following group of players: DT Sheldon Richardson, DT Sylvester Williams, DT Star Lotulelei, DE Datone Jones, SS Jonathan Cyprien, FS Kenny Vaccaro, FS Eric Reid, LB Arthur Brown and LB Alec Ogletree. Sylvester Williams will rise on draft day to be selected in the first half of the first round. If the Rams select a defensive player in the first round, it will be Alec Ogletree, Eric Reid or Sylvester Williams, in order of likelihood.
5. Prospects that will not be be selected in the first round: LB Manti Te'o, DE Damontre Moore, OT Menelik Watson, RB Eddie Lacy, S Matt Elam.
6. Prospects that will be surprise first round picks: OLB Corey Lemonier, DE Margus Hunt, CB Jamar Taylor
7. The Rams will draft a safety and a wide receiver in the first two rounds of the draft. In addition, they will double dip at both of those positions over the course of the draft.
8. The first pick overall in the draft will be offensive tackle Eric Fisher of Central Michigan.
9. My own Rams mock draft, as published on TST April 1: (please click on link) I have left it unchanged throughout April. It is a reflection of what I would try to accomplish in this draft if I were the GM. (Please check out the article for the trade downs)
|1.22||Jonathan Cooper||OG||North Carolina|
|1.23||Jonathan Cyprien||SS||Florida International|
|4.102||Brennan Williams||RT||North Carolina|
|4.113||Christine Michael||RB||Texas A & M|
|5.149||David Bass||DE||Missouri Western State|
|6.184||Cameron Lawrence||OLB||Mississippi State|
|7.222||Brandon Kaufman||WR||Eastern Washington|
10. My "LesFish" Mock Draft. This draft is a prediction of what I believe will actually occur, from the perspective of Les Snead, Jeff Fisher and the Rams war room. I can read minds too!! This mock has remain unchanged for almost three weeks.
|2.60||Quinton Patton||WR||Louisiana Tech|
|4.127||Gerald Hodges||OLB||Penn State|
|5.149||Earl Watford||G||James Madison|
|6.184||David Bass||DE||Missouri Western State|
The LesFish mock contains one trade down: The Rams trade the #16 pick in the first round to the Atlanta Falcons for their #30, #60 and #127 picks.
The odds are in relation to what the Rams will do/which position(s) they may select in the first round of the draft.
QB - 1000-1
C - 500-1
CB - 100-1
TE - 50-1
Trading Up - 25-1
LT - 20-1
RB - 17-1
G - 15-1
RT - 14-1
DL - 11-1
LB - 10-1
S - 9-1
WR - 7-1
Trading Down - 6-1
Thanks for reading. Please vote in the poll and share your thoughts and opinions. They are always welcomed and appreciated.
P.S. It is never too early to start thinking about the 2014 draft!! The Rams have two first round picks in the 2014 draft. My early prediction for those two picks? OT Jake Matthews and OLB C.J. Mosley.