Dubs' Pigskin Picks & Rams Preview - Week 17

Sam Greenwood

The Rams are on the road for their season finale, facing the Seattle Seahawks. The Rams will be attempting to finish with a .500 record, their first since 2006. Seattle will be looking to clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Can Dubs hold off all challengers in the weekly picks race?

Week 16 is now in the history books. The Rams are coming off back-to-back victories against Tampa Bay and New Orleans. This weekend they travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks. The game will be a tough match up for the Rams, but one that's eminently winnable. The season finale is an important game for this young Rams team. Every play and minute on the football field gives these young players invaluable experience. Finishing the season on a high note will serve as a springboard to better results in 2014.

Week 16 Results

The accompanying chart presents the results of my picks for Week 16, and the season totals to-date:

Week Wins Straight Up Wins vs Spread Hot Picks vs. Spread Rams Straight Up
Last Week 10 6 8 8 2 1 1 0
Season 164 76 147 93 36 12 9 6
Percentage 68.3 61.3 75 57.1

How are my results faring against the 93 experts Pickwatch is tracking? (link). My 10-6 record last week was enough to remain in 1st place overall in the standings, 1 win ahead of John Halpin from Fox Sports, and Gregg Rosenthal from the NFL Network. The last week of an NFL season always produces unexpected results. The last week of this season promises the same, as many playoff positions are still undecided.

The chart below identifies the top 25 in the overall standings:

Rank Expert Affiliation Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Wk9 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wins Losses Win %
1 Gregg Rosenthal NFL 11 13 8 11 7 14 9 10 9 8 9 10 12 11 9 12 163 76 68.20%
2 John Halpin FOX 9 11 11 10 7 12 10 11 9 8 12 10 11 12 9 11 163 76 68.20%
3 Ron Jaworski ESPN 11 12 12 12 11 9 9 11 7 9 9 6 12 10 10 10 160 79 66.95%
4 Prediction Machine CBS 11 13 11 9 7 12 11 11 9 6 12 5 12 14 8 9 160 79 66.95%
5 Pete O'Brien USA Today 12 11 10 9 8 10 10 11 7 8 10 8 13 13 9 10 159 80 66.53%
6 Steve Mariucci NFL 12 13 8 8 8 11 10 10 8 9 11 7 10 14 9 10 158 81 66.11%
7 Accuscore Accuscore 11 11 7 9 9 10 10 11 10 9 12 6 12 13 9 9 158 81 66.11%
8 Chris Brockman NFL 10 14 11 9 8 10 11 9 8 9 10 8 12 12 7 9 157 82 65.69%
9 Rick Drummond ProFootballFocus 8 12 10 10 9 11 9 12 7 8 10 7 10 12 9 12 156 83 65.27%
10 Khaled Elsayed ProFootballFocus 11 11 9 9 8 12 10 10 9 8 11 5 11 11 10 11 156 83 65.27%
11 Simon Samano USA Today 10 12 10 10 10 9 9 12 6 7 9 10 12 12 8 10 156 83 65.27%
12 Dave Damashek NFL 9 11 7 9 9 11 10 10 10 10 7 7 11 13 9 12 155 84 64.85%
13 Michael David Smith PFT 12 12 10 9 8 11 8 10 8 6 12 5 13 12 9 10 155 84 64.85%
14 Sam Monson ProFootballFocus 8 14 9 11 7 10 9 11 7 7 12 7 10 14 10 9 155 84 64.85%
15 Chris Wesseling NFL 10 9 11 8 8 11 11 11 7 6 11 8 12 13 10 9 155 84 64.85%
16 Don Banks Sports Illustrated 11 14 10 9 8 10 9 12 7 6 11 6 11 14 8 9 155 84 64.85%
17 Nate Davis USA Today 11 14 8 8 9 11 9 11 8 9 10 8 11 11 9 8 155 84 64.85%
18 Dave Richard CBS 10 12 8 7 9 9 12 11 7 9 9 8 12 10 12 9 154 85 64.44%
19 Andrea Hangst Bleacher Report 10 11 12 9 9 9 11 11 9 9 9 5 11 13 7 9 154 85 64.44%
20 K.C. Joyner ESPN 12 12 9 7 9 11 9 10 8 7 12 6 12 15 8 7 154 85 64.44%
21 Matt Smith** NFL 10 12 7 9 10 11 11 11 8 9 0 7 2 10 8 0 125 69 64.43%
22 Kevin Patra NFL 11 12 7 8 10 12 7 11 6 9 9 10 11 11 8 11 153 86 64.02%
23 Cris Carter ESPN 12 13 10 8 9 10 8 10 6 7 8 7 12 13 10 10 153 86 64.02%
24 Jamey Eisenberg CBS 11 13 12 8 8 9 10 11 8 7 8 7 11 11 9 10 153 86 64.02%
25 Black Tie NFL 13 11 6 11 10 9 11 10 8 9 9 7 11 10 9 9 153 86 64.02

How did my "Hot Picks Versus The Spread" fare last week? Both Denver and Cincinnati won and covered the spread. Miami lost and didn't cover the spread. My record for the week: 2-1. Overall, my "hot picks" record is 36-12 for the season.

C1754949_12918_medium

Week 17 Picks

For reference, the accompanying chart presents the straight-up, against the spread, and over/under records for all 32 NFL teams, after Week 16:

NFL RANKINGS
Straight-Up Against The Spread Over/Under
Team Total Home Away Total Home Away Total Home Away
Arizona Cardinals 10-5-0 6-1-0 4-4-0 10-4-1 5-2-0 5-2-1 7-8-0 3-4-0 4-4-0
Atlanta Falcons 4-11-0 3-4-0 1-7-0 6-9-0 3-4-0 3-5-0 9-6-0 5-2-0 4-4-0
Baltimore Ravens 8-7-0 6-2-0 2-5-0 7-7-1 5-3-0 2-4-1 6-8-1 3-5-0 3-3-1
Buffalo Bills 6-9-0 4-4-0 2-5-0 8-7-0 6-2-0 2-5-0 8-6-1 4-4-0 4-2-1
Carolina Panthers 11-4-0 7-1-0 4-3-0 9-5-1 6-1-1 3-4-0 4-10-1 2-6-0 2-4-1
Chicago Bears 8-7-0 5-2-0 3-5-0 4-9-2 1-4-2 3-5-0 11-4-0 5-2-0 6-2-0
Cincinnati Bengals 10-5-0 7-0-0 3-5-0 9-5-1 7-0-0 2-5-1 9-6-0 5-2-0 4-4-0
Cleveland Browns 4-11-0 3-5-0 1-6-0 6-9-0 3-5-0 3-4-0 8-6-1 4-3-1 4-3-0
Dallas Cowboys 8-7-0 5-2-0 3-5-0 8-7-0 4-3-0 4-4-0 9-6-0 4-3-0 5-3-0
Denver Broncos 12-3-0 7-1-0 5-2-0 9-6-0 5-3-0 4-3-0 11-4-0 6-2-0 5-2-0
Detroit Lions 7-8-0 4-4-0 3-4-0 6-9-0 3-5-0 3-4-0 8-7-0 5-3-0 3-4-0
Green Bay Packers 7-7-1 4-3-1 3-4-0 5-10-0 3-5-0 2-5-0 8-7-0 3-5-0 5-2-0
Houston Texans 2-13-0 1-7-0 1-6-0 3-12-0 1-7-0 2-5-0 9-6-0 6-2-0 3-4-0
Indianapolis Colts 10-5-0 5-2-0 5-3-0 8-6-1 4-3-0 4-3-1 8-7-0 4-3-0 4-4-0
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-11-0 1-7-0 3-4-0 5-9-1 1-6-1 4-3-0 9-6-0 4-4-0 5-2-0
Kansas City Chiefs 11-4-0 5-3-0 6-1-0 8-7-0 2-6-0 6-1-0 6-9-0 3-5-0 3-4-0
Miami Dolphins 8-7-0 4-3-0 4-4-0 9-6-0 5-2-0 4-4-0 6-8-1 2-4-1 4-4-0
Minnesota Vikings 4-10-1 4-3-0 0-7-1 8-7-0 4-3-0 4-4-0 11-3-1 5-1-1 6-2-0
New England Patriots 11-4-0 7-0-0 4-4-0 7-8-0 5-2-0 2-6-0 8-7-0 4-3-0 4-4-0
New Orleans Saints 10-5-0 7-0-0 3-5-0 7-7-1 6-0-1 1-7-0 4-11-0 3-4-0 1-7-0
New York Giants 6-9-0 3-4-0 3-5-0 6-9-0 2-5-0 4-4-0 7-8-0 4-3-0 3-5-0
New York Jets 7-8-0 6-2-0 1-6-0 8-6-1 6-2-0 2-4-1 8-7-0 3-5-0 5-2-0
Oakland Raiders 4-11-0 3-4-0 1-7-0 8-7-0 3-4-0 5-3-0 7-7-1 2-4-1 5-3-0
Philadelphia Eagles 9-6-0 4-4-0 5-2-0 8-7-0 3-5-0 5-2-0 9-6-0 3-5-0 6-1-0
Pittsburgh Steelers 7-8-0 4-3-0 3-5-0 8-7-0 4-3-0 4-4-0 8-7-0 4-3-0 4-4-0
San Diego Chargers 8-7-0 4-3-0 4-4-0 9-5-1 5-2-0 4-3-1 6-9-0 3-4-0 3-5-0
San Francisco 49ers 11-4-0 6-2-0 5-2-0 9-5-1 4-4-0 5-1-1 7-8-0 3-5-0 4-3-0
Seattle Seahawks 12-3-0 6-1-0 6-2-0 10-5-0 4-3-0 6-2-0 6-9-0 3-4-0 3-5-0
St. Louis Rams 7-8-0 5-3-0 2-5-0 7-8-0 5-3-0 2-5-0 9-6-0 5-3-0 4-3-0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-11-0 3-5-0 1-6-0 6-9-0 4-4-0 2-5-0 7-8-0 5-3-0 2-5-0
Tennessee Titans 6-9-0 2-5-0 4-4-0 6-5-4 1-3-3 5-2-1 9-5-1 6-1-0 3-4-1
Washington Redskins 3-12-0 2-6-0 1-6-0 5-10-0 3-5-0 2-5-0 8-7-0 4-4-0 4-3-0

The accompanying chart presents the format - and my selections - for each game this week: home team - away team - the spread - my straight-up winner - which team covers/beats the spread - and the outcome of the game:

Home Away Spread Straight Up Vs. Spread Score
Atlanta Carolina Car 5 1/2 Carolina Carolina 27 20
Cincinnati Baltimore Cin 6 Cincinnati Baltimore 23 20
Indianapolis Jacksonville Ind 11 1/2 Indianapolis Jacksonville 24 17
Miami NY Jets Mia 5 1/2 Miami Miami 27 20
Minnesota Detroit Min 3 Detroit Detroit 24 20
NY Giants Washington NY 3 1/2 NY Giants NY Giants 27 21
Pittsburgh Cleveland Pit 7 Pittsburgh Pittsburgh 28 20
Tennessee Houston Ten 7 Tennessee Tennessee 30 20
Chicago Green Bay GB 3 Green Bay Green Bay 24 17
New England Buffalo NE 9 New England New England 21 10
New Orleans Tampa Bay NO 13 New Orleans New Orleans 31 14
Arizona San Francisco Pick Arizona Arizona 16 13
Oakland Denver Den 12 Denver Denver 31 13
San Diego Kansas City SD 9 1/2 San Diego Kansas City 21 14
Seattle St Louis Sea 10 1/2 Seattle St. Louis 17 14
Dallas Philadelphia Phi 6 1/2 Philadelphia Philadelphia 27 20

Hot Picks Versus The Spread

Carolina over Atlanta - Carolina is playing for a division title and a first round bye in the playoffs. They have won 10 of their last 11 games.

New Orleans over Tampa Bay - New Orleans is fighting for a division title and playoff seeding. They are 7-0 at home this season, and sport a 6-0-1 record against the spread at home.

Kansas City over San Diego - Kansas City is 6-1 against the spread in road games this season. They are looking to build some momentum heading into the playoffs.

Seahawksvsrams_medium

Keys For The Rams Versus Seattle

  • In four wins as the Rams' starting quarterback in 2013, Kellen Clemens has thrown five touchdown passes and zero interceptions. In four losses as the starter, Clemens has two touchdowns passes and five interceptions.
  • Winning the turnover battle will be key for the Rams. The Rams had a positive turnover differential in six of their victories this season - and an even turnover differential in the seventh win.
  • Containing Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, and Seattle's 3rd ranked rushing offense will be a key for the Rams, as it was in their earlier meeting. In that game, the Rams held Seattle to 44 yards rushing.
  • The Rams must get off to a fast start in Sunday's game. In each of their seven victories this year, the Rams have either been tied or leading at the half.
  • Minimizing penalties will allow the Rams better field position and momentum on drives.
  • The Rams must establish the running game with Zac Stacy, against a Seattle defense that ranks 13th in the NFL against the run [1st overall and 1st against the pass].
  • Greg Zuerlein has only missed two field goals on the year. One of the misses was costly in the Rams 14-9 loss to Seattle, in Week 8. In a game that's expected to be very close, Zuerlein must be accurate on all field goal attempts in this game.
  • Prediction: Seattle 17 - Rams 14

    20130510_gav_af5_348

    Perspective On The Rams Versus Seattle

    Advanced NFL Stats takes an in-depth, statistical look at the match up between the Rams and Seattle (link).

    CBS Sports' Pat Kirwan and Pete Prisco preview the game between the Rams and the Seahawks (link).

    Bleacher Report breaks down St. Louis' game plan for Sunday's tilt with the Seahawks (link).

    Ramblin' Fans' prediction for Sunday's game:

    "St Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks. Rams fans know that their team hasn’t fared well in the Pacific Northwest in recent seasons. The Seahawks have been nearly invincible at home since Russell Wilson took over at QB, although they were taken down by the Cardinals last weekend. The last time these two teams met the Rams dominated the Seahawks at the line of scrimmage and completely controlled the game, and yet still lost. Kellen Clemens has looked miles better than he did in that game (his first start since 2011), and the Rams ground game has continued to surge behind Zac Stacy. In their last meeting the Rams defense got to Wilson 7 times with 3 each from Chris "White Thunder "Long and Robert "Black Lightning" Quinn. If the Rams are going to have a chance in this game they will need another dominant performance by the defensive line." Rams win 24 – 20.

    ESPN's Mike Sando presents his "Inside Edge" on the Rams-Seattle match up (link).

    "Seattle has averaged 176.3 yards through the air in its last three games after averaging 233.9 passing yards through its first 12, and Russell Wilson has been sacked 10 times in the past three contests after going down three times in the previous four."

    "The Rams have the NFL's best run defense since Week 10, allowing an average of just 68.0 yards in the past six games after holding New Orleans and Tampa Bay to a combined 120 in consecutive victories."

    "Zac Stacy leads a potent Rams ground game that has averaged 155.6 yards per game since Oct. 28 - second only to Philadelphia's 175.1 over that span."

    All quotes are courtesy of the Wall Street Journal.

    ESPN's Nick Wagoner and Terry Blount share their analysis of the Rams game versus Seattle (link).

    X
    Log In Sign Up

    forgot?
    Log In Sign Up

    Forgot password?

    We'll email you a reset link.

    If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

    Forgot password?

    Try another email?

    Almost done,

    By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

    Join Turf Show Times

    You must be a member of Turf Show Times to participate.

    We have our own Community Guidelines at Turf Show Times. You should read them.

    Join Turf Show Times

    You must be a member of Turf Show Times to participate.

    We have our own Community Guidelines at Turf Show Times. You should read them.

    Spinner.vc97ec6e

    Authenticating

    Great!

    Choose an available username to complete sign up.

    In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

    tracking_pixel_9341_tracker