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NFL Draft: Rational Expectations

If you've been following the front page for the past couple of days, or surfing the web, you probably have seen many articles speculating on the Rams' first round pick. While the ideas of trading Jackson, drafting a DT like Fletcher Cox, or picking a WR outside of Blackmon make for good reads, those ideas actually happening Thursday night is not very likely. After the jump I'll give you the expectations fans should have going into Thursday, that some are forgetting.

In my opinion, and in the opinion of many other draft analysts is that the top 6 players that will be selected are pretty well defined. These include: Luck, RG3, Kalil, Claiborne, Richardson, and Blackmon. It isn't news that the top two will be Luck and RG3 in that order. It is also likely that Kalil will be selected at 3rd overall by Minnesota. So, barring any trades that the Rams or anyone else makes, the Rams will almost certainly draft the remaining player that isn't taken by Cleveland and Tampa Bay. Any other pick here would be a reach on the Rams part.

The main problem I see in this is that the Rams do not have much control over who they pick. If the Rams' front office has their eyes set on a particular player, they may decide to trade up a spot or two to guarantee they get that player. I don't see this happening unless the Rams really are getting rid of Jackson and want to make sure they draft Richardson.

Another scenario is that a team reaches on Tannehill by trading up to 4th or 5th overall. The only thing that this changes is that the Rams now have a choice between two out of the three likely picks for the Rams.

The Rams could also get a good offer from a team wishing to trade up, in which case, we're all going to have to wait and see who the Rams pick as most of the Mocks go out the window.

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