FanPost

Realistic Trade Value for the Rams #2 Overall Pick

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via media.columbiamissourian.com

During a portion of my part-time, unpaid job as armchair GM of the St. Louis Rams, I've read the hundreds and hundreds of mock drafts that are floating around out there. The majority of those mock drafts are already predicting the Rams trading their #2 overall pick - most likely to QB-needy teams Cleveland or Washington in the hopes of nabbing their quarterback of the future in RG3. I even posted a poll question a while back about what the readers of TST wanted the Rams to do with the #2 pick and the overwhelming response was to trade back to acquire a few more picks to fill some of the many holes in the roster.

But what could we actually get for the #2 pick? I've seen so many people on this page mocking that the Rams could get both of the Browns' first round picks, their 2nd rounder, their 3rd rounder, their 4th round pick and yet another first round pick in 2013. Don't get me wrong, the mock drafts that come from that are awesome, just not very realistic. We have to realize that our two most likely trade partners, Washington and Cleveland, are both bad teams as well that really want and need their draft picks as much as we do. I just don't see a team mortgaging the farm and giving up all those high picks to move up 2 or 4 spots.

So it got me thinking about what was a REALISTIC trade value for either of those teams looking to move up. I looked back at a couple of high-profile, draft-day trades of teams moving up a few spots within the top 5 to grab their franchise quarterback. I also looked up the old point-system chart that teams use (or used) as to what pick was worth how many points. I realize that that system may be a little old and antiquated but teams do still use it to a certain extent. What I found after the jump.

2001
San Diego Chargers trade the #1 overall pick to the Atlanta Falcons

Falcons get:
#1 overall (#1 - 3000 points) and select Michael Vick

Chargers get:
#5 overall (#5 - 1700 points)
3rd round pick (#67 - 255 points)
2nd round pick in the following year's draft (#48 - 420 points)
WR Tim Dwight (who was coming off a year with 26 receptions, 406 yds, 3 tds)

(Just as a side note, according to the point system, the Falcons underpaid by 625 points making the value of Tim Dwight the same as the 30th overall selection.)

2004
San Diego Chargers trade the #1 overall pick to the New York Giants

(well, they traded the player they took #1 overall for the player the Giants took #4 overall. For simplicity's sake, here's how that shook out.)

Giants get:
#1 overall (#1 - 3000 points) and select Eli Manning

Chargers get:
#4 overall (#4 - 1800 points)
3rd round pick (#65 - 265 points)
1st round pick in the following year's draft (#12 - 1200 points)
5th round pick in the following year's draft (#144 - 34 points)

(According to the value chart, the Giants overpaid by 299 points for Eli Manning. But he's since gone on to win 2 Superbowls so I don't think they're too upset.)

So in one deal, the team trading back received an additional 2nd and 3rd round pick along with a starting WR in order to move back 4 spots. In the other trade, they got a 3rd round pick and a 5th round pick and the next year's 1st rounder to move back 3 spots. This brings us back to the Rams and their desire to trade down. I don't forsee the Rams getting a "break the bank" kinda deal. RG3 is a supremely gifted athlete but I don't think anybody has him rated as highly as either Michael Vick or Eli Manning coming out of college.

According to the point-value chart, the Browns two first round picks almost equal the value of the Rams #2 overall pick. However, I've heard that the Browns are not willing to give up both of their first round picks in order to move up. Realistically, the Rams may be able to garner an extra 2nd and 3rd round pick from the Browns in order to move back two spots where they would still be guaranteed to get either Kalil, Blackmon, Claiborne, Reiff or whoever they like best.

The Redskins may have to give up a little bit more because the Rams would be moving back farther and have to hope they can still get their guy. However, the Redskins don't have as much draft capital as the Browns. Plus, they don't want to give up all of their early round picks in this year's draft because, like the Rams, they have too many holes that need filled. They're a team that might be willing to give up future high draft picks to hold on to some from this year. I could see the Skins offering something along the lines of a 2nd and a 5th rounder this year while throwing in next year's first round choice as well. Fortunately for the Redskins, Fisher and Shannahan reportedly have a pretty good friendship so that could be what swings the decision in their favor.

So I certainly don't know what kind of package deal we could get from either team but at least we have a couple of similar trades in the past to give us an idea of what the Rams might be able to get. Below is a list of the point value associated with the Rams #2 overall selection and each pick that the Browns and Redskins have (except for their 7th rounders. They're basically worthless). There are a bunch of different combinations of trades to get the numbers to match up and since we all have calculators on our phones (regular math is just too hard), I won't go through every single option. But it does give us something to think about.


2012
Rams #2 overall - 2600 points

Browns #4 - 1800 points
Browns #22 - 780 points
Browns 2nd round (#37) - 530 points
Browns 3rd round (#68) - 250 points
Browns 4th round (#100) - 100 points
Browns 5th round (#131) - 41 points
Browns 6th round (#164) - 25.8 points

Redskins 1st round (#6) - 1600 points
Redskins 2nd round (#39) - 510 points
Redskins 3rd round (#70) - 240 points
Redskins 4th round (#102) - 92 points
Redskins 5th round (#133) - 39.5 points
Redskins 6th round (#162) - 26.6 points

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