Lance Kendricks' rookie season in perspective

by Ryan Van Bibber on Sep 6, 2011 8:30 AM CDT in 2011 NFL regular season

Lance Kendricks looks poised for a big season. The St. Louis Rams rookie tight end led all rookies during the preseason with 11 receptions and 3 touchdowns. He was second in receiving yards with 155, just two less than Julio Jones. If you paid attention in April, then you do not need my hackneyed effort to juxtapose Jones, Kendricks and the story of the Rams' draft. What can the Rams expect from Kendricks this season?

Go ahead and take a stab at the predictions in ram_rod's community projection post. Also, I should say right now, after that intro, that I do not expect Kendricks to compare to Julio Jones, though I do think the WIsconsin product will be a very good tight end.

Some historical analysis after the jump.

A good baseline for Kendricks, based on what we saw in the preseason and similar offenses, is 40 receptions. Daniel Fells had 41 receptions for the Rams last year.

Since 1990, fifteen rookie tight ends have caught more than 40 passes. The list:

						Games		Receiving
Rk	Player	Year	Age	Draft	Tm	G	GS	Rec ▾	Yds	Y/R	TD	Y/G
1	Jeremy Shockey	2002	22	1-14	NYG	15	14	74	894	12.08	2	59.6
2	John Carlson	2008	24	2-38	SEA	16	9	55	627	11.40	5	39.2
3	Cam Cleeland	1998	23	2-40	NOR	16	16	54	684	12.67	6	42.8
4	Jermaine Gresham	2010	22	1-21	CIN	15	10	52	471	9.06	4	31.4
5	Dustin Keller	2008	24	1-30	NYJ	16	6	48	535	11.15	3	33.4
6	Tony Moeaki	2010	23	3-93	KAN	15	15	47	556	11.83	3	37.1
7	Aaron Hernandez	2010	21	4-113	NWE	14	7	45	563	12.51	6	40.2
8	Zach Miller	2007	22	2-38	OAK	16	16	44	444	10.09	3	27.8
9	Tony McGee	1993	22	2-37	CIN	15	15	44	525	11.93	0	35.0
10	Rob Gronkowski	2010	21	2-42	NWE	16	11	42	546	13.00	10	34.1
11	Ken Dilger	1995	24	2-48	IND	16	13	42	635	15.12	4	39.7
12	Alex Smith	2005	23	3-71	TAM	16	10	41	367	8.95	2	22.9
13	Freddie Jones	1997	23	2-45	SDG	13	8	41	505	12.32	2	38.8
14	Pete Mitchell	1995	24	4-122	JAX	16	5	41	527	12.85	2	32.9
15	Eric Johnson	2001	22	7-224	SFO	16	14	40	362	9.05	3	22.6

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/3/2011.

Spring time for tight ends? Notice that 4 rookie tight ends topped 40 catches last year. Jermaine Gresham was the only TE take in the first round. Tony Moeaki, a third-round pick, and Kendricks get compared with each other some.

Most obvious on this list, however, are Bill Belichick's double tight end threat, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. Separated by just 3 receptions, Gronk and Hernandez also shared similar yards per catch totals. Gronk's 10 touchdowns tied him with such luminaries as Antonio Gates and Mercedes Lewis for the most TDs by a TE.

Supposedly, the New England pattern is exactly what McDaniels wants to emulate in St. Louis this year. Michael Hoomanawanui's role in those plans might be compromised given his injury situation. With or without Hoomanawanui, quarterback Sam Bradford made it perfectly clear that he plans to pass to Kendricks this year. A reduced role for Uh Oh probably means more scores for the rookie.

For more on the 2-TE sets, be sure to back and read 3k's extensive look in the Playbook Projector.

If 40 receptions is a good floor, what is a good ceiling? Shockey was the Giants' number two receiver in 2002, after Amani Toomer. The ceiling for Kendricks' numbers is lowered because the Rams have more receiving options and appear likely to spread the ball out more to guys like Danny Amendola, Brandon Gibson, Mike Sims-Walker, etc.

By the way, no tight end has ever won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.

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Comments

Gonna be interesting to see how he performs in week 1

In terms of his stats, the longer UhOh is out, the more I expect him to be targeted obviously. He’s absolutely key to this offense moving forward.

Turf Show Times editor, Mocking the Draft writer, and I gots that Twitter too, yo.
"my keyboard won't corporate, neighter will my smell check." - Knoxfan

by 3k on Sep 6, 2011 8:36 AM CDT reply actions

Good thing

about being a Rams fan was knowing about LK going into my fantasy drafts….LOL

by RWRAMS28 on Sep 6, 2011 8:46 AM CDT reply actions

+1

hw is on 3 of my teams. the bad thing is when you do a draft with other rams fans, he is gone quick

M-V-TEAGUE!!!!!!!!!!!!
Upon hearing that the nfl lockout was over, I faced in the general direction of Seattle and gave them the finger. GO RAMS
Follow me at @Th3_Prophet

by Throw on Sep 6, 2011 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions

Good

thing for me there are no Rams fans in my area. Whats up with predicting he will have 1 point this week?

by RWRAMS28 on Sep 8, 2011 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions

Lance"

What perspective ? He’s only played in 4 per-games, let’s see what he can do over 16 real games.

by fishblue on Sep 6, 2011 9:01 AM CDT reply actions

I absolutely love what Kendicks is going to bring to this team

Shame that Uh-Oh may not make week one, but my faith is in our no.2 pick this year. I saw most highlights of our pre-season games, and Lance stood out for me – the guy’s got pace, power, can get himself open, block, good hands – I hope as a Rams fan that Philly haven’t been doing their homework on this guy, cause he’s primed and ready to do some damage.

by JoolzMF on Sep 6, 2011 9:11 AM CDT reply actions

am i the only one not drinking the eagles kool-aid?

really my rams brothers…im not impressed! the names on the backs of there jerseys dont mean nothing. the rams have a great opportunity to stomp the eagles, and make a case for themselves. look at the blueprint the steelers showed, on how to fluster vick.

kendricks is going to have a field day on sunday. it will be like flag football to him, and come out of the game with a clean uniform. i really think the rams are going to pull this one out.

by Mark Jaramillo on Sep 6, 2011 9:31 AM CDT reply actions

I think the hype on the eagles is 50/50

They r still ranked behind packers, falcons, and saints and thats only in the nfc. Oh and kendricks could be nasty on sunday cause the eagles backers r the weak spot. Also, if watkins starts, we will eat vick aliiiiiive

by Ram_Redemption on Sep 6, 2011 9:38 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions

I too think that the Eagles

are poised for a bloody mouth…and their dream turned to a nightmare. Would be nice to see, for us that is.

3443AZ

by 3443AZ on Sep 6, 2011 9:56 AM CDT up reply actions

I agree

They have the smallest O-line and D-line in their division. I think we can take ’em!

by stuman89 on Sep 6, 2011 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions

Interesting

According to the list you posted New England had 87 reception between 2 TE’s last season. Man, that a lot of production from that position. Is that basically what McDaniel’s has planned for us? I mean, if that’s the case, we may be over stating the need for that #1 WR.

by ZamRam on Sep 6, 2011 9:42 AM CDT reply actions

Good observation, ZamRam

It sort of hints at why they keep DX, I think, to have one real speedster to stretch the field.

3443AZ

by 3443AZ on Sep 6, 2011 9:54 AM CDT up reply actions

they had the perfect guys to run it with in NE

in Gronkowski (Rob type) and Aaron Hernandez. Great combo. Kendricks-Hoomanawanui can be effective to, but Big Mike’s gotta get healthy ASAP.

Turf Show Times editor, Mocking the Draft writer, and I gots that Twitter too, yo.
"my keyboard won't corporate, neighter will my smell check." - Knoxfan

by 3k on Sep 6, 2011 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions

I don’t know if you can compare those other TE’s to Kendricks from a role standpoint other than Shockey, Hernandez and Grotkowski. Those other guys weren’t a focal point of their passing offense. They were dump off guys or the 3rd to 4th checkdown for a QB in his progression. Kendricks can put up some good numbers if he stays healthy. I can see 800 yds and 7or 8 TDs for him. I hope he’s not our leading receiver in yards at end of the year, but hopefully he’ll be our #2.

by Da Rams! on Sep 6, 2011 11:52 AM CDT reply actions

Kendricks

Going to be a threat for years to come I see and Antonio Gates type of TE in Lance he’s going to be great even doe I was looking like why this guy a tight end but now he changes my whole perspective about him he’s one of my favorite catchers right now go Lance man.

(Love by many hated by most) St. Louis Rams

by J-RAD2 on Sep 6, 2011 1:03 PM CDT via mobile reply actions

Lance Kendricks is the new TE for special WR duties.

McD is going to have fun playing with his new toys. HO-OO & LK have a chance to rewrite history just as PATs did last year. McD gets to try & show up his old boss, "I was the one that showed Bella – Cheat how to work the O!

Go RAMs !!!

by VETT on Sep 6, 2011 9:39 PM CDT reply actions