More missed context for Sam Bradford's rookie season

by Ryan Van Bibber on Aug 17, 2011 10:07 AM CDT in 2010 St. Louis Rams season

ST. LOUIS, MO - AUGUST 13: Sam Bradford #8 of the St. Louis Rams looks to pass during the first half of the NFL preseason game against the Indianapolis Colts at Edward Jones Dome on August 13, 2011 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

Yesterday, I devoted 1,400 words or so in response to a claim that St. Louis Rams' QB Sam Bradford's rookie season was vastly overrated. In short, yes, it was overrated, but author making that contention overlooked several important bits of context in a rush to throw cold water on fan and media enthusiasm.

Background makes all the difference in judging a picture. I'm running too close to empty to delve into critical theory, so I'll spare you the academic lessons...consider yourself lucky. It was kind of ironic, I suppose, that the author of that piece focused on the tendency of people to look mostly at yardage and completions when judging Bradford's rookie season, then ignoring defense-adjusted stats (from an article he cites) showing just how blah the receivers were. And of course there were the coaching issues and the fact that Bradford hadn't really played football the year before being drafted (sort of a them among St. Louis' first round picks the last two years).

There's another stat comparison the Pro Football Reference author overlooked, a measurement from his own site. In a great post from Smart Football (one we'll talk about again soon), the author makes this catch.

Moreover, the statistics are not all bad. Bradford's 5.4 Adjusted Yards Per Pass Attempt (Pro Football Reference's vaunted quarterback stat), although not great, was better than the rookie number for another highly touted rookie: Peyton Manning only had a 5.2 AY/A in 1998, his rookie season. My point is not that Bradford was 0.2 better than Manning, but instead simply that with young quarterback's it's a guessing game. Remember too that Bradford was coming off a college season where he barely registered any snaps due to injuries, and logic indicates that he's at least on the right direction.

Some people tried to turn this whole overrated argument into the old chestnut of stats versus observation, or whatever the hell you want to call it. That was not at all the point. Context is key to understanding things, stats require context just like any other data, quantified or otherwise.

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Eye Test and Progression

By the eye test Sam had a great year and showed tremendous talent and poise. And for those trying to project forward let me share this observation from Sam’s college days. When Sam was a freshman he put up monster numbers but was criticized for his play on the road. His second year he was great on the road but criticized against Texas his biggest rival. Then the next year great against Texas but didn’t handle all the attention against Florida great. The point is Sam improves takes his biggest weaknesses and makes them his strength in short order. I have no doubt that Sam will take a big step forward this year and doubters will always be doubters but Sam will reach his ceiling which is higher than most.

by O.G.ram on Aug 17, 2011 12:06 PM CDT reply actions

Well said

by Douglas M on Aug 17, 2011 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions

I said this in the other article just a few minutes ago

but I want to repeat it here.

If setting the records Sam set last year, throwing for 3,000 yards, having the best QB rating of any #1 overall pick in something like 3 decades and winning the ORoY award is so mediocre and so easy or overrated, then why the hell didn’t Matthew Stafford, Josh Freeman, Mark Sanchez, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Donovan McNabb, Dunte Culpepper, David Carr, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, J.P. Losman, Patrick Ramsey, Carson Palmer, Jay Cutler, Vince Young, Matt Leinert, Tim Tebow, Alex Smith, Aaron Rogers, Steve McNair and all the rest of the quarterbacks not named Peyton, Dan and Matt all do it then?

Don’t you think that if all of these quarterbacks could have put those numbers up while leading a former 1-15 team to more wins than the past 3 years combined, taking every single snap, setting all those records, while carrying the weight of an entire organization on his back and going into their second year with the expectations that nobody thought possible one year ago, all these quarterbacks would? Don’t you think that all the coaches and general managers of these quarterbacks would want that?

Then why didn’t they do it?

I understand that Bradford plays for a small market team in some cow town as far as these media types are concerned, but talent is talent and if you can’t see it, more importantly can’t respect it, then you have absolutely zero business watching football let alone commenting on it.

by DaFranchiZe on Aug 17, 2011 1:44 PM CDT reply actions

Testify.

by O.G.ram on Aug 17, 2011 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions

No Doubt

STEVEN JACKSON is the #1 Ram

Go RAMs !!!

by VETT on Aug 17, 2011 6:07 PM CDT up reply actions

Yes

by ThomasZ on Aug 17, 2011 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions

The difference between Manning and Bradford...

VanRam,

I can assure you that I didn’t overlook the similar AY/A numbers. Unfortunately, Chris has this one slightly off. If you’ll bear with me:

— For judging quarterback value in a season, we look at ANY/A (not AY/A).

— For judging quarterback potential, or to predict how a quarterback will play in his next game/season, we look at NY/A.

And when judging QBs from different eras, we almost always have to use era-adjusted stats.

ANY/A is Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. It is calculated as follows:

(PassTDs*20 – INTs*45 +PassYds – SkYdsLost)/(Att + Sk)

We have done a lot of research that shows Interceptions play a big part in explaining past results (i.e., whether you won or lost) but play almost no part in explaining future results (who will win or lose next time and also whether or not a QB is more or less likely to throw an INT the next time). NY/A is simply (Passing yards

As a rookie, Manning’s ANY/A was was 4.8 and the league average was 5.3. His NY/A was 6.1 and the league average was 5.9. The difference, of course, was that Manning led the league in INTs. That made him not so valuable as a rookie QB but it meant little about how good he would become (Manning is obviously a fantastic example for the argument that a QB’s INT rate as a rookie says little about his future ability).

So Manning’s rookie season was slightly below average (in terms of ANY/A) but actually ABOVE average in terms of his expected performance. This is very rare — since 1978, only 5 QBs (min 8 GS, 200 att) were above league average in NY/A: Ryan, Roethlisberger, Marino, Manning and Leftwich. NY/A does a good job of projecting future performance.

Bradford, on the other hand, averaged 4.7 ANY/A (lg avg = 5.7) and 5.2 NY/A (lg avg = 6.2). So he was quite a bit below average in terms of his value as a rookie, and also well below league average when it comes to projecting future performance. Hence the article.

Pointing out that Bradford’s AY/A (which excludes sack data) was better than Manning’s misses the point. For rookies, I like to look at their NY/A, and in that area, Manning significantly outshined Bradford.

If you think I have an anti-Bradford agenda, I imagine you would find it convenient that I chose to use the one stat that paints Bradford in the worst light. But I can assure you that the causation arrow runs the other way: I wrote the article because the first stat I always look at for QBs is NY/A, and Bradford’s ugly performance there was the genesis for the article.

But as I said in the other post, a QB’s rookie season hardly defines a QB’s career. For the sake of Rams fans, I hope that is the case here as well.

by Chase Stuart on Aug 17, 2011 4:01 PM CDT reply actions

Haha

Let’s see your opinion or the opinion of NFL coaches, players and GM’s…….yeah

LMFAO

This was an obviously bias article, I assume for the reason that you’re a Jets fan that by the way has easily the most irrelevant young QB on a championship caliber team or really on any team. A QB that would instantly be selected behind Bradford all day everyday.

Your study also fails miserably at looking at Bradford as a leader, quick study, passion to be great and the ability to command a complex offense by year 2. Yeah, thats right, he isn’t going to be handing off 35 times a game and relying on his defense to make sure 14 points is enough to win like a certain QB in New York. Save your nerdy analysis for sabermetric book worms who are more worried about, what was it?, NY/A then wins, production and leadership. You know, the shit that actually matters to coaches, teammates and fans.

Oh and by the way, you can also save your lame attempt to save face with Rams fans with your shitty comment of “But as I said in the other post, a QB’s rookie season hardly defines a QB’s career. For the sake of Rams fans, I hope that is the case here as well.” We don’t need to “hope” and we certainly don’t need your “hope”, us Rams fans are believers because we watched the games, we saw his impact and contribution’s to this franchise from day 1.

by DaFranchiZe on Aug 17, 2011 6:18 PM CDT up reply actions

I would love to see

what someone like Jon Gruden would have to say to this guy haha.

"I kind of stepped my swagger up. You look at the Madden game and the swagger's so low, maybe they'll bump me up. Before it was a meatball flex, so you've got to liven it up a little bit." - Animal Jr.

by douchiedude on Aug 17, 2011 11:16 PM CDT up reply actions

That is a whole lot of number crunching.

I like to just watch the games and see for myself, which I will do, while Bradford leads us to a division title ;)

Two things about me will never change. I will always root for the Rams, and I will always root against the Niners.

by DuhhhRams! on Aug 17, 2011 7:01 PM CDT up reply actions

Again,

please just turn on a Rams game for once in your life next time. Numbers are great and all, but they’re just numbers. If you didn’t watch him play, then you didn’t see the impact he’s made for this team and franchise. He was also one of the top quarterbacks in the league in converting 3rd & 8+ (obvious passing downs) before hitting the rookie wall in his final 5 weeks.

by douchiedude on Aug 17, 2011 11:13 PM CDT up reply actions

And was even ahead of Peyton

in that category for about half the season. Of course, you’ll disregard that with your bs.

by douchiedude on Aug 17, 2011 11:18 PM CDT up reply actions

For the sake of Rams fans?

I’ll take a 7 win season (after winning 6 in three years) and the third rookie to throw for 3,000 yards and look at it as tremendous hope for the future. Not to mention how poised and calm he always is. Sorry, things you’d know if you saw him play.

by douchiedude on Aug 17, 2011 11:15 PM CDT up reply actions