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What kind of impact can a rookie receiver have for the Rams?

If the St. Louis Rams were to take a wide receiver in the 2011 NFL Draft, what is a reasonable set of expectations for that player? Fans and pundits are hoping for a just-add-water solution to the problem fter watching last season's hum drum passing game. However, receivers typically take some time to learn the ins and outs of the NFL game and establish a connection with their quarterback. 

The best rookie season for a Rams receiver belongs to Eddie Kennison, a first-round pick in 1996. The beneficiary of all the attention paid to Isaac Bruce by opposing defenses, Kennison set franchise highs with 54 receptions and 924 yards. His 9 TDs were the best since Bukcy Pope's 10 in 1964. 

Torry Holt had a pretty good rookie season himself, during the Rams' amazing 1999 season. Holt caught 52 passes for 788 yards and 6 scores. With so many offensive weapons, there were only so many touches to go around, but that was an auspicious debut for the quality seasons that followed. 

It's been easy to overlook Donnie Avery, especially since he didn't play last season, but his rookie debut was notable. His 53 receptions were the second-best mark of any Rams receiver. He had 674 yards and 3 TDs to go with it in 2008, part of a moribund Rams offense that didn't do much scoring in their two-win season.

Exploring the factors that could help/hurt a Rams rookie receiver in 2011 after the jump.

Star-divide

Obviously, results from any rookie receiver in 2011 depend on the player himself. You should expect a better debut from, say, Julio Jones than a fourth round pick. That's not say it couldn't happen, just look at Mike Williams' rookie season last year. 

There are a few other factors to think about. One thing that's sure to benefit a rookie receiver is the presence of a very talented quarterback in Sam Bradford. Eddie Kennison did well with Tony Banks at the helm, and Anquan Boldin had 101 receptions for 1300+ yards in his rookie year with a Josh McCown and Jeff Blake passing him the ball...and not much receiving help around him either. 

Perhaps the biggest wild card for a Rams rookie this year is the talent around him at WR. There isn't really anyone on the roster now that will command double teams. However, Mark Clayton and Danny Amendola, perhaps Brandon Gibson and Donnie Avery, can be enough of a threat to free up a rookie to make plays. 

McDaniels' offensive system is known to be a benefit to receivers, but he hasn't worked with a ton of rookies during his stops in New England and Denver. Last year, Demaryius Thomas spent the better part of his rookie season dealing with injuries. He had a big splash in his week 2 debut with 8 catches for 97 yards and a TD, but managed just 14 in 8 other games. Still, with Eddie Royal and a resurgent Brandon Lloyd, he was a third man when he was healthy. 

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I'm expecing

1 thousand receptions for 50 thousand yards and 72 TDs.
But honestly, with Avery, Amendola, DX, Gibson and Clayton back (screw Gilyard), I’m expecting about 50+ rec for 600 yards and 7 TDs. Not too much, but still plenty.

P.S. I’m wearing my Super Bowl XXXIV Champions shirt at work today. Go Rams!!

Needed: Ping Pong table. Anyone wanna donate $78 million?

by sergey606 on Apr 8, 2011 11:40 AM CDT reply actions  

Isn't Brandon Lloyd a free agent?

I’d like to see the Rams take a look at him.

He obviously had success with McDaniels.

Of course, with the huge season he had last year, he’d probably demand a huge contract…which I’d be incredibly hesitant to give out.

Number 8 is great

by Eric Nagel on Apr 8, 2011 11:41 AM CDT reply actions  

Lloyd sucks

He was just a guy apart of a seemingly good passing system and he is not better than what we already have.

"Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory there is no PLAYOFFS."
Winston Churchill

by SMASH44 on Apr 8, 2011 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

......really?

77 rec for 1,448yds and 11tds is a sucky player?

That Tom Brady guy is also pretty crappy.

by TheSmart1 on Apr 8, 2011 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

Derek Anderson went 289 of 527 for 29 TD's and won 10 games

1 yr of good nembers doesnt validate you as a good player. Lloyd has been on 4 teams in 8 yrs and his career stats 241 rec 3818 yrds 26 Tds. Lets see how he does this year. Watch Avery produce similiar stats too….BTW did you just compare Tom Brady to Brandon Lloyd? because that would really be a sorry comparassion.

"Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory there is no PLAYOFFS."
Winston Churchill

by SMASH44 on Apr 9, 2011 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yesterday I read an article on another website,

that of either Buffalo or Carolina, concerning WRs draft choices. The author looked at the top 3 WRs chosen in each of the last 10 years. Of those 30 WRs only 3 have become real stars (Fitzgerald and the two Johnsons). A few others are fairly good and the rest are not doing much. The point of the article was that picking any WR in the first round is risky and not at all a sure thing.

We should still take Green or Jones if one of them falls to us, but trading up for one would be incredibly risky, giving up two draft choices for a guy who (statistics say) may not turn out to be a star.

by andyhawk on Apr 8, 2011 11:44 AM CDT reply actions  

well

I’d like to see that for every position. idk if the percentages will be as high, but there are a lot of “average guys” on teams, with only a couple “stars”

Needed: Ping Pong table. Anyone wanna donate $78 million?

by sergey606 on Apr 8, 2011 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions  

precisely my worry

history has proven, as you so deftly pointed out, that WRs overwhelmingly often do not represent the high-percentage play in drafts. thusly, to answer the question regarding how much production to expect from a rookie WR, i don’t feel as though a rookie WR will have as a big of an immediate impact as, say, a rookie OG or DT. i believe that the learning curve is higher for the skill positions in terms of transitioning to the pro game. as such, i believe the greatest immediate returns will come from guys like pouncey, watkins, liuget, etc. as with anything however, unknowns carries their own inherent risks. i guess the question is: is the team still building for the long haul, or does it want to accrue the highest immediate return on its investments? ideally, of course, the answer to that question is that the team draft a player who makes both an immediate AND long-term impact. but if it’s a one-or-the-other proposition, i for one would rather take a cautious approach and draft the guy who can make an immediate impact, rather than a potential project. do the rams want guys who can step in and start making an impact from day one? if so, either stay at 14 or trade down, and get either an OG or a DT, and solidify the line, where all true fans of the game know the real battles are won and lost.

by mcihaelT on Apr 8, 2011 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

There's a lot of quality receivers out there that we never heard of. Clayton is a good example-

A 1st round pick that never went anywhere, until he had a QB that would throw to him, and put him on track for a 1000+ yd season. That’s why I have faith in our current Rec corp. Who knows what they can do with Sam slinging the ball.

by Knoxfan on Apr 8, 2011 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

was convinced we should take a receiver this year (Julio Jones!!)

but looking at the Draft class this year and the possibility to get him, I think defense is an almighty right choice. Then we just get our receiver(s) next year, preferably Blackmon & Broyles. My dream, defense this year (Aldon Smith first round) and those 2 next year…

Go RAMS!!

by Rams_4_ever on Apr 8, 2011 12:25 PM CDT reply actions  

+1

I would like Blackmon and Broyles
Get rid of Gibson and Robinson

by RG31 on Apr 8, 2011 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

Could we trade 6-7 2011 and 2012 draft picks to SF for Crabtree???

I just have a feeling that Sam to Crab would be something special for a decade. Add in Clayton and Amendola and we have the makings of another Greatest Show on Turf. Saffold may turn out to be the Orlando Pace replacement that Jason Smith was not. It’s just too bad we’ve misused and abused SJax so badly that he’s in decline. But with OG’s like Bell and Goldberg, no backup, and no credible blocking FB we set SJax up for failure.

by RamChop on Apr 8, 2011 12:29 PM CDT reply actions  

I think this speaks volumes of how drafting a WR

won’t necessarily help the Rams until 3-4 years down the road. The Rams need passing help NOW, not in the future, and a FA WR would provide that help immediately, without the need for years of development.

by TheSmart1 on Apr 8, 2011 2:52 PM CDT reply actions  

we just need another losing season from the cards

and fitzgerald will become a free agent and sign with the rams.pretty simple lol

by caliramsfan1 on Apr 8, 2011 3:35 PM CDT reply actions  

from what I gather though

he loves living in AZ

Needed: Ping Pong table. Anyone wanna donate $78 million?

by sergey606 on Apr 8, 2011 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

so does donavan mcnabb who has a house there too...

but you didnt here him complaining about playing for philly. larry fitz can live there forever, as long as he’s cashing checks in s.t louis? i wouldnt care where he lived.

by Mark Jaramillo on Apr 8, 2011 7:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

ok, you guys got me

can we afford him….?

Needed: Ping Pong table. Anyone wanna donate $78 million?

by sergey606 on Apr 9, 2011 1:12 AM CDT up reply actions  

Yea all we have to do is show Keronke his old game tape

and release LR, Gibbs, Gilyard, Toston, Dockery, Dehl, and every other POS on the team.

"Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory there is no PLAYOFFS."
Winston Churchill

by SMASH44 on Apr 9, 2011 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

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