A new 2011 mock draft from Wes Bunting at the National Football Post pitches a a trade up for the St. Louis Rams, giving them a much better shot at drafting Alabama WR Julio Jones. Bunting's mock draft imagines a trade with Washington, in which the Rams move up to the tenth spot in the first round. Two questions: how realistic is a trade up with Washington and what would it cost.
We touched on the cost of a potential trade in this post from February. Last year, the San Francisco 49ers made a deal with Denver that moved them from #13 to #11. The deal also included a fourth round pick.
Not a bad deal, though from this angle at this point in time, I'd be a little hesitant about losing a fourth round pick. However, it might cost more than a fourth round pick since the Rams would be trading into the top ten. The Jets' 2009 trade with the Browns for the fifth overall pick (used for Mark Sanchez) included a second rounder.
Calculating according to draft value, never an exact guide for trades but a ballpark:
- Denver's 11th pick was worth 1,250 points; SF's 13th pick and 113th pick were worth a combined 1,218.
- Cleveland's 5th pick was worth 1,700 points and NY's 17th and 52nd picks were worth 1,330.
This year, Washington's 10th pick is worth 1,300 points. The Rams' 14th pick is worth 1,100 points. Where to make up the 200 points? The Rams third round pick, #78 is worth exactly 200 points. The Rams' fourth round pick, #111, is worth 72 points, and their fifth round pick, #132, is worth 35 points. Just how close the two teams would have to be in valuation to make a deal depends entirely on the general managers; there are always pick swaps that can be used as part of the deal and if the lockout gets lifted they can throw in players.
Personally, I don't see the Rams moving up. Though they need better more reliable options at receiver, they do seem to have enough confidence in the group they have now to get by another season, possibly adding a second or third round WR to the mix.