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2011 NFL Draft: The Nick Fairley mock and risk vs reward in the NFL Draft

One 2011 mock draft makes a shocking prediction that Nick Fairley falls to the St. Louis Rams at #14. Long shot or not, it reignites the timeless question of risk versus reward with players in the NFL Draft.

By now, you've seen the link 3k posted earlier, the link to Doug Farrar's latest 2011 NFL mock draft at Yahoo...the one where he has the St. Louis Rams picking Auburn DT Nick Fairley with the 14th selection in the draft. As 3k said, it's a very remote possibility. Stranger things have happened, but a chorus of pundits are spending ay more time talking about Fairley's character issues now than they are his talent. Prospects falling due to character concerns is not unheard of, just ask Dez Bryant. While still an unlikely scenario, it begs the question: at what point does the reward outweigh the risk?

Rams GM Billy Devaney has been criticized for taking "safe" players in the draft in recent years. Picking OT Jason Smith with the second pick in 2009 saw that charge leveled against Devaney, and there were even some using the same argument regarding the James Laurinaitis and Rodger Saffold picks (though I'm sure those folks have since had their crow and moved on).

Each of those picks met crucial needs for the Rams, just like Fairley would. The difference between then and now is that that was a young Rams team rebuilding the nucleus of the roster and needing high character guys, future leaders, to form the foundation of the team for the future. Now, the Rams have some more leeway to bring in some players who are a little riskier in the character department. The question is whether or not the risk is worth a first round pick. 

Justified or not, Nick Fairley just can't seem to escape the character questions, both on the field and off of it. Here's what Mike Mayock of the NFL Network said about Fairley today:

You see him take an awful lot of plays off. If you don't buy into him, he's not even on your board.

And the Twitter-verse is filling up with Albert Haynesworth comparisons. Fairley has been considered a top three pick in the draft; he has that kind of talent. Therefore, it's a little shocking to see someone with Farrar's credibility mocking a fall from top five to fourteen in the first round. 

Were that to happen, do the Rams coaches and front office believe that they can tune up Fairley's motor well enough to make him an three-down defensive tackle in the NFL? Even without the off-field concerns, it's a multi-million dollar question. Even if he becomes an effective rotational player, that's still an irreplaceable first round pick that could have been used somewhere else. 

So mull the hypothetical question presented by this mock draft: if a talented player falls that far because of character concerns, should the Rams take the risk? Can Steve Spagnuolo, his coaches and the veteran players that now form the team's foundation speed the maturation process along and develop a top-notch football player? 

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If he just fell on our TST board with maybe another team also is one thing-

But when he falls big time across ALL boards, that is a serious Red Flag. (to me anyway)

by Knoxfan on Mar 28, 2011 8:31 PM CDT reply actions  

once again...

Where the hell did all this mayock love come from?? I don’t care what he or kiper or mcfake has to say. As far as I think they don’t know anything beside kiper cuz he knows everything about a cfl player in hs while they played peewee in Ontario … they don’t no what the fos of clubs think.

by markg1127 on Mar 28, 2011 9:59 PM CDT via mobile reply actions  

Surely the Rams will talk with Fairley

between now and the draft so they have a better feel for his mindset. Even if the drop to 14th is unlikely, they need to do their homework.

by andyhawk on Mar 28, 2011 10:48 PM CDT reply actions  

Physically, he is gifted...

But this guy will need the team’s Sports Psychologist to be as involved as the coaching staff and locker room leaders will have to be. After watching “how” this guy goes about his business, it would shock the bejeesus out of me if Spags/Devaney picked him. I hope his disrespect for the game, rules and opponents stays far away from the Ram locker room. He is in for some awakening when the Veteran NFLer’s put him in his place for crap this guy pulls.
I am sure he’ll get his sacks, but I bet the guy gets physically dominated in the NFL run game.

Gamble on someone else!

by RadicalRamsFan on Mar 28, 2011 10:51 PM CDT reply actions  

How is this a gamble?

Did you see this guy in the national championship game? He dominated.
And as i remember Suh plays a lil dirty too and everybody was a coo coo for coa coa puffs over him. Ex. The Browns qbs head when he twisted his whole body around.
Sure he has problems but if he drops to us i think we’ll take him

by RG31 on Mar 28, 2011 11:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

I appreciate his physical prowess-

I see him being a negative distraction from the professional attitude that seems to exist in the team nowadays. You know the one that wasn’t there for “way too many” years? It seems like there is enough top talent guys around, that would help us in Deeper holes. Our DL guys aren’t done yet. Look how mister smartypants/“fell for good reason” down in Dallas is doing? I bet Mr. Jones is so proud of that pick.

by RadicalRamsFan on Mar 29, 2011 12:24 AM CDT up reply actions  

Good Question...assuming none of the top ranked beasts fall

and beyond dreams of Jones at 14, I would like to see Quinn, Smith, Amuka or even a Wilkerson that commits to and maintains a leaner build (15-20lbs lighter).

If those guys are claimed by then I say find a trade partner. I see Spag’s ability to fortify our DT without using a 1st rounder as a major asset for us.
I really hope Liuget lands somewhere else too. All the mocks that have him going to us is scary. He looks great penetrating and causing chaos at the collegiate level from time to time, but he rarely makes the big play once he gets there. Billy/Spags please don’t waste the 14th on this guy!! he he

by RadicalRamsFan on Mar 29, 2011 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

Pass on him

Just the talk of opening up the locker room to a cancer like him, no thanks.

by RamsFan1979 on Mar 28, 2011 11:39 PM CDT reply actions  

Thank you-

He plays like a punk and cowardly pussy on too many plays for my taste.

by RadicalRamsFan on Mar 29, 2011 12:04 AM CDT up reply actions  

Probably will have the same problems Suh has had in Detroit

Probably will have almost the same success as Suh has had in Detroit. I’m not going to worry about it, though. There is a 0% chance he passes the 4 pillars and there should be a good DE’s available for Spagnuolo to work with. I’m also not sure why Tennessee wouldn’t draft him since everyone is making Haynesworth comparisons. I figure that works both ways. I also wouldn’t rule out the Vikings drafting him. I think its far more likely that Bowers or Quinn falls to 14.

by ClaytonW on Mar 29, 2011 1:19 AM CDT reply actions  

Marvin Austin

IMO is the more talented player.

by ValdezY on Mar 29, 2011 8:02 AM CDT reply actions  

I agree too and

sports at this level is 4-1 thinking/knowledge versus skills, cuz let’s face it, skill level is high for everyone playing….its the pros less scab seasons.

by jlcdb70 on Mar 29, 2011 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions  

+1

If you are going to pick up a DT with character issues, Austin will be available in the second round at 1000 times the value of fairley at 14. Hell, if he would have played this last year he would have been in the talk with darius and fairly as best in the draft.

by jessk on Mar 29, 2011 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions  

I haven't seen enough of Austin yet to make a big bold statement on him yet, but I tell ya

he moves like he is Real hungry to be involved on ending every play, asap. It’s having players like that, especially on the Dline, that builds dominant football teams!

by RadicalRamsFan on Mar 29, 2011 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

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