HOF 2015
by WideRight on Feb 7, 2011 11:38 AM CST
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PrintBarring comeback attempts, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Kurt Warner, and Orlando Pace will all become eligible for the Hall of Fame in 2015. Warner, Bruce, and Pace seem like sure bets, while Holt is more of a question mark due to his big-peak and relatively short career.
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Sadly, I don't think any of them are shoe-ins.
Especially Kurt Warner.
A brief look at Approximate Value (weighted) on ProFootballRefernce, the candidates rank as follows:
118. Bruce -tied with HOFers Ray Nitschke, Gary Zimmerman, Franco Harris, Raymond Berry and Jim Parker. Also tied with non-HOFers Ricky Watters, Rod Smith, Mark Tingelhoff and Donovan McNabb
128. Pace – tied with HOFers Shannon Sharpe, James Lofton, Buck Buchanan and Sonny Jurgensen. Also tied with non-HOFers Maxie Baughan, Curtis Martin, Jonathan Ogden and Champ Bailey
137. Holt – tied with HOFers Len Dawson, Bart Starr, Len Ford, Lou Groza and Jim Otto. Also tied with non-HOFers Richmond Webb, Steve McMichael, Mike Kenn, Tiki Barber, Steve McNair, Brian Dawkins, Sam Mills, Lamar Parrish
177. Warner – tied with HOFers Larry Wilson and Lenny Moore. Also tied with non-HOFers Mark Brunell, Bill Bergey, Roman Gabriel, Walter Jones, Jim Tyrer, Jim Hart, Henry Ellard, L.C. Greenwood, Will Shields and Lomas Brown.
In total, Bruce is ranked at a level with 5 HOFers and 4 non-HOFers (6-3 if you think McNabb will make it, and I do). Pace at a level that’s 4-4. Holt at a level that’s 5-8. Warner at a level that’s 2-10.
Granted, I am not counting the players above/below their rank level (ie Bruce is ranked above 33 HOFers and below 9 non-HOFers), and Approximate Value isn’t the be all end all of HOF credentials. It is, however, just another measure by which to compare players across eras and positions.
If I were a voter, I absolutely vote Bruce and Pace in. I’d need some thinking time for Holt and Warner.
"I have something 95 percent of all those All-Stars only wish they had: a World Series ring. If I had to choose between that and being an All-Star, it would be no contest. I’d grab the gold ring and never look back." -Tim Salmon
Warner is a HOFer
Everyone knows you have to throw out stats when considering Warner.
Undrafted QB, the bag boy, Arena/Europe league, 2 separate clubs to the Superbowl, departure both clubs take massive dives.
Warner is in before Bruce/Pace/Holt.
I actually don't know if that's true
I remember back to Warner’s Super Bowl with the Cards against the Steelers, and many of the writers, pundits, etc said that Warner needed that victory to secure a place in Canton. Well, he didn’t get it, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a QB who was 1-2 in Super Bowls didn’t make it.
I recall that there are a lot of HOF voters out there who look down on his short time in the NFL and the fact that he had like 4 good, complete seasons without injury or benching. That’s a short tenure for a HOF player.
Perhaps another way to look at it: should Warner be considered one of the best QBs ever? Look at the list of HOF QBs (modern times, 1970s+, for comparisons sake):
Troy Aikman, Terry Bradshaw, John Elway, Dan Fouts, Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, Joe Montana, Warren Moon, Joe Namath, Bart Starr, Roger Staubach, Fran Tarkenton, Johnny Unitas, Steve Young.
That’s a pretty damn talented crop of QBs. In my opinion, I have a hard time placing Warner among that list. Looking just at the 1990s, there’s 6 QBs (Aikman, Elway, Kelly, Marino, Montana, Young). Each of these players had careers that spanned nearly 2 decades and have that mythic nature about them.
For the late 1990s/2000s, we’re looking at Brady, Manning, Favre, McNabb and probably Brees/Rivers. Does Warner belong in that crowd? During the 1999 and 2001 Super Bowl runs, yeah I guess so. But that’s just 2 years. Those guys listed above exemplified HOF play every year. For a long career.
I love Kurt Warner. He’s the kind of guy I wish I was friends with. But unfortunately due to his rough path to the NFL and the fact that he sucked on the Giants, I’d have to think long and hard about voting him into the HOF.
"I have something 95 percent of all those All-Stars only wish they had: a World Series ring. If I had to choose between that and being an All-Star, it would be no contest. I’d grab the gold ring and never look back." -Tim Salmon
No way Rivers can ever be considered a HOF QB until he wins something
preferrably a superbowl, maybe a few more playoff games.
He’s good but I doubt he ever wins the big one. He’s a stat monster like Romo but despite winning in the reg season in the clutch he has yet to prove he can do it at crunch time.
Brees needs to continue being awesome for 3 years too. With the likely 18 game sched QB’s will need to win more than one superbowl to be considered, or to put up 5000 yard seasons on a regular basis.
Bradford to Onobun!
Super Bowls aren't necessarily required
You do need to be amazing though if you never win one. Just look at Marino or Kelly.
"I have something 95 percent of all those All-Stars only wish they had: a World Series ring. If I had to choose between that and being an All-Star, it would be no contest. I’d grab the gold ring and never look back." -Tim Salmon
by BruinHalo on Feb 8, 2011 9:50 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
or at least get to one lol
i really don’t think Rivers has the demeanour to win a superbowl.
he seems like he throws a strop when stuff doesn’t go his way instead of rally the team.
Really, this comes from my perception tht Rivers is a bitch. A good QB, but a bitchy bitch mcbitcherson.
Bradford to Onobun!
this is incredibly dumb
Everyone knows you have to throw out stats when considering Warner.
"And a boring game for boring people. Did you ever watch golf on television? It's like watching flies FUCK. Think of the intellect it must take to draw pleasure from this activity: hitting a ball with a crooked stick and then WALKING AFTER IT" -George Carlin
It's interesting
Warner has the stats just not the longevity.
"I have something 95 percent of all those All-Stars only wish they had: a World Series ring. If I had to choose between that and being an All-Star, it would be no contest. I’d grab the gold ring and never look back." -Tim Salmon
care to clarify then?
this is how i’ve always viewed warner, now if you think its wrong, explain.
I’m more of a story person, maybe its baseball advance stats mentality that’s part of your view.
Here’s where i’m coming from,
02 injured,
03 no chance broken hand goodbye starting job,
04 starts with NYG (2 year deal), 5-2 then two defeats and Manning2 gets a starting job, NYG 6-10, what was the wildcard picture that year? oh right 8-8 Rams/Vikings/Saints
05 starts with Cards, groin/MCL injuries, (3 game span nearing 1,000 total yards)
06 yet again goodbye starting job to Leinart, enjoy the backup role
07 back up until game 5, 8-8 cards.
08 superbowl
09 amazing playoff game against Packers, serious did you guys watch that game? 51-45, dear lord was the pretty.
shorten version
02-03 injuries, i blame on Martz, see Bulger
04 new team, playoff chances, pulled early for Manning 2.0
05 new team, injuries, however 1,000 yards total in 3 games?
06-07 played back up Leinart, reminders of Manning situation anyone?
08-09 yep still great.
it seems though that while he was great his entire career
he got injured some and didn’t play, through circumstances out of his control, but still did not play.
he has production from when he played and the story, but he just did not play enough.
I’d always consider him one of the best ever and a revolutionary player for the position just for being in the GSOT but I think non partial football fans would struggle to put him in the top 5 of QBs who played during his career.
Thus in my estimation it looks like a long shot but still possible, QB’s always go in.
They should try and lower the number of QB’s going into the HOF imo.
need more linemen and WRs
Bradford to Onobun!
That leads me to think this:
If all QBs of all time were available in a draft, how far down would Warner fall? Would he even be first round?
"I have something 95 percent of all those All-Stars only wish they had: a World Series ring. If I had to choose between that and being an All-Star, it would be no contest. I’d grab the gold ring and never look back." -Tim Salmon
well for one, there are a ton of players who if not injured would have make the HOF, but didn't
no idea why Warner deserves to be the exception (and for what it’s worth, I just don’t think he has the longevity that he needs))
Injuries are a part of the game and so are new playbooks and your supporting casts – wonder how many players were actually good enough, but never had the stats because of their team
You can’t just say that Warner played bad or little beucase this happened or this happened because that’s part of the game and you have to judge his whole career
"And a boring game for boring people. Did you ever watch golf on television? It's like watching flies FUCK. Think of the intellect it must take to draw pleasure from this activity: hitting a ball with a crooked stick and then WALKING AFTER IT" -George Carlin
by stlcardsfan4 on Feb 13, 2011 11:24 PM CST up reply actions
I think Torry Holt should sign and retire a Ram
And then team up with Bruce and become WR coaches.
"We start wit straight--shots then get the bottle poppin!"
Three highest passing yard games in Super Bowl history.
1. Kurt Warner
2. Kurt Warner
3. Kurt Warner
http://www.nfl.com/superbowl/45/categorystats?tabSeq=0&statisticCategory=PASSING
If it doesn't matter who wins or loses, then why do they keep score?
I don't see how Isaac Bruce isn't a first ballot HOFer
7th in career receptions, 3rd in career receiving yards and 9th in career receiving TDs. If he’s not first ballot, I’m gonna have some issues with how they select WRs.
Turf Show Times editor, Mocking the Draft writer, and I gots that Twitter too, yo.
"my keyboard won't corporate, neighter will my smell check."
List of HOF WRs
Fred Biletnikoff, BobHayes, Don Hutson, Charlie Joiner, Steve Largent, James Lofton, Don Maynard, TommyMcDonald, Art Monk, Jerry Rice, John Stallworth, Lynn Swann, Charley Taylor, Paul Warfield
Should Bruce be in there?
Yes.
"I have something 95 percent of all those All-Stars only wish they had: a World Series ring. If I had to choose between that and being an All-Star, it would be no contest. I’d grab the gold ring and never look back." -Tim Salmon
It has been interesting listening to Bernie Miklasz on 101ESPN
recently. He is one of the 44 voters for the NFL HOF, and was the lead presenter for Marshall Faulk this year. When discussing the possibilities of the various candidates this year, never once did he mention Approximate Value or any other metric of that sort. It was all about typical measures (TDs, yards, receptions, sacks, leadership, etc.), plus whether the team won and how much credit the guy gets for that.
Each of the 15 candidates has one member of the 44 who presents his stats and the reasons to consider him as a HOF member. The group then discusses that guy some, moves on to the next presentation, and so on until they get through all 15. They then cut the field to 10 and go through it again. Eventually they get down to the last 5 and take a final up or down vote for them.
I think the four Rams in question all have a chance to be elected, but none of them is a shoo-in. One problem for Bruce and Holt is that no WRs are being elected these days. When Chris Carter doesn’t even make the top 10, it looks like there is a real roadblock to getting new WRs elected. Bruce has a better chance than Holt, but I don’t think either is a cinch to make it – especially in their first year. Bruce definitely deserves to be there, but somehow the logjam for WRs needs to be broken first. Pace will have to deal with Willie Roaf every year, so he is probably only 50-50. Warner has a chance simply because of his spectacular stats in his good years, the way he took three teams to the Super Bowl and they both fell apart the year after he left, and his great story. Again, I don’t think he will win on the first ballot, but he still has a chance.
I spend too much time on baseball blogs
I need to lay off the advanced metrics. HOF voters on the NFL side of things don’t really follow that stuff as closely.
Also, when you put it into the context that you just did, I have a hard time seeing anyone but Bruce or Pace making it through the ringer.
"I have something 95 percent of all those All-Stars only wish they had: a World Series ring. If I had to choose between that and being an All-Star, it would be no contest. I’d grab the gold ring and never look back." -Tim Salmon
I don't think the metrics will ever work in football
The fact is depending on what team you play on, the style of play, the amount of time on the field, targets, touches, weather, etc. all effect the stats of players. It is just way to many variables to deal with so the metrics won’t be as accurate as they are in baseball.
There is no substitute for victory
by Brandon Birkhead on Feb 7, 2011 6:57 PM CST up reply actions
Yup I didn't know the process either
I’m thinkin Roaf needed to go in a long time ago. You’re right if Roaf isn’t in what O-lineman should be in. That makes me think there’s not enough Roaf representation. I hope he does make it in, and Pace, shortly after.
Warner should go in1st or 2nd. Bruce maybe, but Holt, no. Not my hope but my opinion.
Wolf. Wolfgang Wolf
This was Roaf's first year of eligibility.
You have to be retired for 5 years before you are eligible. He made it through the cut down from 15 to 10, but lost out when they cut down to 5. He will have a better chance next year.
Wow I thought Roaf had been gone for like 15 years
He’s nearly 8 years younger than me. I’ll be damned.
Wolf. Wolfgang Wolf
Bruce maybe?!?!?!
He has the second most receiving yards of all time, there is not way he doesn’t get in.
Rugby is a beastly game played by gentlemen, soccer is a gentlemen's game played by beasts and US football is a beastly game played by beasts.
Henry Blaha
by Brandon Birkhead on Feb 7, 2011 9:37 PM CST up reply actions
Of the four
I think Bruce has the best chance of making it. Warner and Pace have a fair chance. I don’t think Holt makes it. But you just never know. It will be fun to watch.
I'd say Bruce is a lock
Pace has a massive chance, he was flat out awesome for a long time.
Holt, not so much, if he continued his production throughout his career he’d probably be considered.
Warner is an outside bet. I love the guy, love what he did and have no doubt he was a great QB, but if he gets in it’s purely because of some great lobbying on grounds of emotion and his story.
His play speaks for itself, but it was only for a few years. I hope he gets in, but he needs to come in after Bruce and Pace.
Bradford to Onobun!
In addition to the four Rams first being eligible in 2015,
OT Walter Jones and LB Junior Seau will both become eligible that year. That means Pace will be up against Jones, and maybe Roaf if he hasn’t gotten in by then. Big O isn’t a slam dunk by any means. Listening to Bernie Miklasz today it was clear he thinks Jones was better than Pace. Pace will have to stand in line until the other two OTs get in first.
There are only 21 WRs in the HOF. There is a real logjam at the position, with no new ones getting in lately. Bruce certainly should make it at some point, but the logjam needs to be broken first so WRs are more seriously considered.
Like everyone says, Warner is a special case. Whether he gets in or not depends more on his story and his few great years than upon his career stats. Holt is the least likely of the group to make it, and rightly so. There are other WRs in line ahead of him who were just as good as Holt, and he isn’t likely to leapfrog over them.
Warner is likely a first ballot HOFer. Those voters have already shown us what they think of him by placing him in their top 100 players of all time(NFL Network)
Bruce will get in, but I foresee a Andre Reed or Cris Carter type wait.
Pace and Holt will not get in. They shone brightly for a while, but didn’t sustain their high play long enough because of injuries.
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