Fun with numbers: Signs of progress and areas of concern in the Rams' stats

by Ryan Van Bibber on Sep 29, 2010 12:35 PM CDT in 2010 St. Louis Rams season

Visible signs of a better Rams team: Na'Il Diggs #53 of the St. Louis Rams forces a fumble against Santana Moss #89 of the Washington Redskins at the Edward Jones Dome on September 26 2010.

Oh statistics, you say so much while saying so little. Sitting at third place in the NFC West, the St. Louis Rams look like they've finally started to see some results from the franchise's massive turnaround efforts. Without a doubt, play on the field has improved, especially in the wake of this week's win. A better Rams team is now showing up in the stats as well as away from the numbers (I had to work in a reference to post punk heroes, The Jam).

Here's was Football Outsiders' DVOA stats for the Rams after three weeks of play. It's important to note that these numbers have not yet been adjusted based on quality of opponents; that happens after this week's games. DVOA and ranks listed below.

Offense: -15.2 percent, 23rd
Defense: -5.3 percent, 14th
Special teams: -2.9 percent, 23rd

What does it all mean? Digging deeper into the numbers after the jump...

Let's start by comparing those numbers to last season's.

Offense: -26.4 percent, 32nd
Defense: 20.3 percent, 31st
Special teams: 1.6 percent, 11th

The defense has made the biggest jump of all, something that's been evident in the first three games of the season. The offense is better as well, but until last week, the team continued to struggle when it came to actually putting points on the board. Hopefully, the progress seen last week continues in the weeks ahead.

Sticking with the offense, breaking it out by rush and pass reveals some positive signs for the Rams.

Pass DVOA
2010: -6.1 percent, 22nd
2009: -33.5 percent, 32nd

Rush DVOA
2010: -15.3 percent, 25th
2009: -4.7 percent, 25th

Reasons for improvement in the passing game should be fairly obvious. Sam Bradford, even as a rookie still prone to the classic rookie mistakes, gives the Rams a big bump at the QB spot. That was never more evident that in the second half of last week's win over Washington. Pass protection also gets credit here.

The drop in the performance of the running game is a concern, especially for a team with Steven Jackson as the feature back. Prior to last week's game, we discussed this issue at length, citing problems in the run blocking, play calling and wondering about the status of several players.

To an extent that improved this week. Jackson and Kenneth Darby both broke out for touchdown runs, and the offense made better use of runs on the outside. Tweaks to the offensive line, most notably the use of John Greco at RG, made a difference as well.

We'll keep an eye on the Rams running game. Despite the complete lack of a passing threat last year, the Rams still managed to scratch out an effective run game against stacked defenses. Those familiar 8 man fronts plagued the Rams in the first two games. Like I mentioned above, a more effective use of Bradford's ability to change the play at the line of scrimmage overcame the stacked box pretty effectively and balanced out the offensive attack. That should really benefit the Rams when Steven Jackson gets back on the field, but until then, that rushing DVOA stat might not budge much.

Here's the breakdown on defense.

Pass defense DVOA
2010: -1.7 percent, 12th
2009: 30.3 percent, 29th

Run defense DVOA
2010: -9.9 percent, 15th
2009: 10.8 percent, 32nd

That's a pretty impressive jump all around. I suspect those numbers will change when adjusted for opponents, but it's still a marked improvement.

The biggest reasons for the jump, besides the obvious one of a healthier team, are:

Better pass rushing. We've seen this weekly, the Rams using a wild array of blitz packages, trickery like sending two men, often not linemen, through the same gap. There may be some questions on the other side of Chris Long, but the team is making up for it. I'd also point out the fact that Chris Long still has not recorded a sack, but he's terrorized opposing QBs and his play has allowed his teammates to pickup the actual sack. The addition of Fred Robbins has also paid dividends so far.
Strong play in the secondary. To me, this is the best unit on defense. Ron Bartell is playing up to expectations, Bradley Fletcher looks even better than where he left off, the safeties have been solid too. Play in the secondary has certainly helped the front seven.
James Laurinaitis and better linebackers. The outside linebackers haven't been perfect, but they are a more athletic bunch than last year. More to the point, James Laurinaitis is playing at an incredibly high level, not to mention his role as captain of the defense. He's also improved in coverage, his biggest weakness as a rookie.

This is not a conservative defense. On more than one occasion opponents have beaten an aggressive rush for big plays. Some of that is reflected in the unit's biggest weakness, runs on the outside, particularly at left end. At that spot, the Rams have allowed an adjusted line yards rate of 6.87 yards, 29th in the league. I think part of that has to do with the aggressiveness mentioned above, but a couple other factors are at play, namely LBs getting out of position and corners getting blocked by receivers. Go look at the tape on some of those runs and you'll see what I'm talking about. Larry Grant usually plays on that side, and though he's not a rookie, this is his first season as a starter and seeing much playing time period. Grant's a good player, so keep an eye on whether or not he improves in that area. I did see the Rams were using David Vobora on the outside some last week. Vobora excelled against the run last year, so that rotation might continue going forward.

It's not enough, however, to look at these stats and settle for the obvious improvement they reflect. The task now is maintaining those gains going forward and making additional strides.

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Comments

offense will only get better as the year progresses

as sam bradford grows and develops our offense will continue to improve. and as the offense improves the defense will consequently improve as well. our D is pretty nasty when they arent exhausted. and as for special teams………..get it together please. big challenge for them next week covering washington

by Buck Nasty87 on Sep 29, 2010 12:49 PM CDT reply actions

With such a great improvement in the defense

It’s really tempting to focus draft picks on a monster DL and DE to move opposite Chris Long. But maybe the defense is adequate as is and those picks are better spent on a true #1 WR and #2 RB.

by betterthanzero on Sep 29, 2010 12:54 PM CDT reply actions

I still say...

…First round DE, Second round WR, and then 3rd, take the best RB or DT available.

by Terminus Est on Sep 29, 2010 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions

I think it always depends on your board

maybe that makes sense and maybe it doesn’t. You have to consider your draft grade, positional value, etc. If AJ Green ends up having a significantly higher grade than Quinn, Clayborn or whoever is the highest rated end, I think you take him first. DEs are more valuable than WRs as a rule, but our need for a number 1 is large, and you aren’t going to get a player comparable to Green in the 2nd.

Also worth mentioning is how you handle Sam Bradford. The Colts have been a good example of this. They’ve built around Peyton Manning. They already had Marvin Harrison but followed up by taking Edgerrin James the next year. Then, a couple years later, they took Reggie Wayne while Harrison still had value.

The Personal Finance Playbook.

by Toddius on Sep 29, 2010 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions

Good Stuff

Thanks Van, keep it coming.

The only thing comparable to a Rams win is a 49er loss!

by DevsLaRams on Sep 29, 2010 12:59 PM CDT via mobile reply actions

Any Jam reference is fine by me.

As long as the team’s performance is more in line with “That’s Entertainment” than “Absolute Beginners”.

by Abrantes on Sep 29, 2010 3:08 PM CDT reply actions

We need to go big in the draft

We have failed at drafting solid role players in the first round time after time. Barron? Hill? Carriker? Jimmy Kennedy? Last time it worked out was 1997 with Pace. We waste picks on building blocks every year. What happens when we make a flashy pick like Bradford? He’s set to become the future of our team and possibly the NFL. Will we draft a franchise player everytime? No. But how could we choose Donnie Avery over Desean Jackson? cuz he was too flashy, too small? who cares..he’s better. He was the best player on the board and we chose the wrong receiver cuz he seemed safer. Chris Long is good and everything..but second pick overall? c’mon no one has comparable skill to him in the second and third rounds?..We grabbed a beast of a linebacker in the second round in laurinaitis..and Jason Smith was a wasted pick its starting to look like. Roger Saffold took his job in an instant…and we arent paying him fat first round money. It’s time to go big in the first round. get a good DE in the second. Get 500 pound linemen in the 4th and 5th rounds. Who cares..the fact is, the Rams DO NOT have a good 1st round drafting history. Something needs to change. Last Time we took a RB in the first round? Steven Jackson. WR? Torry Holt.

by Lexxi on Sep 29, 2010 6:25 PM CDT reply actions

A few qualms

First off, this DVOA looks pretty accurate using just an eyeball test, D will probably go down due to the Raiders and Cardinals but we’ll see.

Next, the defense is slowly becoming a frustration for me. The corner play has improved exponentially, I mean Fletcher and Bartell are worthy starters for this team. Dline play is average, Long is looking good, Robbins is a beast, Selvie and Hall are good situational players to have around. Lb’s are alright, I always thought Lauranaitis had a low ceiling that he’d show in his rookie year but so far he’s AMAZING, but then Grant is out of place like he has no experience (which he has) while Diggs and Vobora are just average players. This leads to my biggest gripe- wth is wrong with our safeties, numerous times a big run has broke, these exact words have come out of my mouth: “pssh his a** about to get rocked…what the f***, that was the worst angle I’ve ever seen a safety take” directed at both Stewart and Atogwe (Butler is a solid safety). I dunno what their problem is but I think Butler’s play has earned him a spot and someone needs to wake Atogwe the hell up.

Lastly, the offense is improved but we are playing with a handicap. I mean Bradford is sick and all, but our skill players are garbage…Jackson is a beast, that’s a given, and Darby had a good game…but Gibson dropped like 4 straight passes, Robinson looks like a scrub, Gilyard is a little undersized or he’s just not use to taking a hit (he gets blown up so frequently, what is this?), Clayton is overachieving (though I do believe he could overachieve for the whole season…does that make it not overachieving?), and Amendola is being all that he can be (which is great). On the TE front, we are set, period. Fendi could play wideout but I think it’s probably too late/early (if you know what I mean) in the learning process to switch him. Personally, I’ve seen an Oline that looks competent constantly and good often. If we had more dangerous players on the field, Bradford would be ripping defenses apart, and that’s why my sig is what it is. Go Rams!!

Julio Jones for Rams 2011

by kinzav29 on Sep 29, 2010 7:05 PM CDT reply actions

is what it is

Look, I hear what your saying and will agree with your assessments, but what the cure? Trade #1`s for more #2`s? (I actually like the idea) Hindsight is 200 and if long had help he’d have the stats. Smith? We`ll see.

The only thing comparable to a Rams win is a 49er loss!

by DevsLaRams on Sep 29, 2010 10:07 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

I'm not saying you trade down

I’m saying you take your #3-10 pick in the first and grab the most dangerous offensive player you can (a la Julio Jones). Points would come more frequently, especially with a QB who knows how to utilize the skills of his assets (even faulty ones, such as ours).

Julio Jones for Rams 2011

by kinzav29 on Sep 30, 2010 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions

Yeah I noticed the bad angles pursuit also...

…and it wasnt just by the safeties. But I think the real reason for the rams getting gashed in running yards is the linebacking. They dont have anybody staying home protecting the backside when the RB cuts it back. This has happened in all 3 games.

Actually I will get even more specific. Teams are specifically running right and cutting back to the left on the rams to take advantage of Grant’s over pursuit.

Now it is not totally his fault, teams are cheating a bit and getting a wideout to hang on to his jersey so he cant cut back and make the tackle and the Refs arent seeing it. But he needs to cleet them, punch them in the throat, kick them in the balls…whatever to break away.

Gibson is a work in progress…the good is he seems to be able to get wide open. the bad news is if he is not open or someone is near him, he drops the ball.

by leadhead on Sep 30, 2010 6:28 AM CDT up reply actions

Totally agree

I’d say our LB’s overpursue with a passion, but as a former DB, when your playing safety and you see those LB’s whiffing…you get the taste of blood on your tongue, get your shoulders squared up, and light this sucka up! and as a team with competent safeties I wish we’d see that more often.

Julio Jones for Rams 2011

by kinzav29 on Sep 30, 2010 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions

Sorry Van, I agree with Kinzav29

on the secondary. It’s a weak spot on the defense that’s only been helped by a stronger D line push and linebacking corps. I’ve seen Safeties stumbling around dazed while passes and running backs are going right by them.

by RamHammer on Sep 29, 2010 11:13 PM CDT reply actions

The reason for the jump...

…if you look at regular statistics, offensive and defensive numbers are no different than last year except in 2 overall categories…points and forced fumbles. The Rams are best in the league right now in forced fumbles. For the defense, this obviously takes potential points off the board for opposing offenses which improves that number. The forced fumbles are also allowing our offense to take possession of the football on shorter field. Increasing our percentage chance to score a touchdown.

by leadhead on Sep 30, 2010 6:11 AM CDT reply actions