Sam Bradford: Signs are Good


I'll give you the good news and the bad news.  As of now, there is currently no foreshadowing that suggests Sam Bradford will be a bust in the future.  I will support this later.  The bad news is that according to Walter Football, since 1993, there is a 44.2% bust rate among quarterbacks.  Its only 60% for quarterbacks taken first overall, not counting Matthew Stafford, who is a to be determined.


Walter Football gives three reasons why a quarterback will become a bust.  Now before I name them, let me clear up that ALL busts have either of these three reasons.  If they clear all, then they won't become a bust or at least no bust has happened that haven't fit the criteria.


The first one is a bit of scary one, because Sam Bradford fits the profile.  System quarterbacks typically bust.  In recent years, some of the system quarterbacks are Cade McNown, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, and Alex Smith.  Not exactly the list you want to be on.  Sam Bradford ran a spread in college.  Although, I think its been shown that its not as bad as say if you're drafting Chase Daniels (ignoring the height deficiences as well).  He only ran a shotgun offense 48% of the time.


Also WF finishes up with this quote - "If you can really do your homework on these gimmick-offense quarterbacks in college and ensure they have the proper arm strength, talent level, and football intelligence to play the position, then you will not end up with a bust for this reason. "


Ok well all signs show that Bradford has great arm strength, his talent seems to be there, and he is smart at football (his Wunderlic rating was a 36).  


Second reason was because a quarterback lacked intangibles.  Well, I'm about 90% sure Sam Bradford has the work ethic neccessary.  Also, his poise is probably a sure thing given that he played on Oklahoma (massive expectations) and in front of large crowds (larger than any he's going to see in the NFL).  Now, leadership, I'm not sure about.  We can only assume.  Hopefully he isn't Marc Bulger in the sense that he had no leadership over his offense.  I doubt he will, but by Bradford's third or so start, I'm sure this will be cleared up.


The third reason is if a team lacks offensive line.  David Carr, Joey Harrington, and Alex Smith again all fall victim.  Any reasonable projection says the Rams offensive line is average and potentially much greater.  They have Jason Brown, unquestionably an elite center.  I expect Jason Smith to be above average in his second season and Roger Saffold to be average with possibly a few false starts (still less than Barron).  Jacob Bell, Mark Setterstorm, and others fill the depth and guard positions.  Offensive line will not be the reason Bradford is a bust.  

Also, I'll reference the Sports Illustrated article about the 26-27-60 predicts future.  Its suprisingly accurate and extremely simple.  Simply start 27 games, get a 26 on the Wunderlic, and get  60% completion percentage.  You have to do all and there are few exceptions.  


Jay Cutler, who had a 57% in college, Ben Roethlisberger, who barely missed Wunderlic at 25, and Joe Flacco, who missed the cut at starts, but he was kind of already a gamble.


Sam Bradford absolutely blows this test out of the water.  He got a whopping 36 on his Wunderlic, beating the required score by 10 points.  He had 31 starts.  And he had a 67% completion percentage.  For those who wanted us to get Jimmy Clausen in second round, maybe this will ease your thoughts.  He got a 23 on the Wunderlic.  Not sure if that helped at all.


And for what it's worth, everybody with a 23 or lower on their Wunderlic has been a bust except perhaps Michael Vick, but its pretty clear he is a different breed of QB.  Tim Couch, JaMarcus Russell (raise your hand if you're shocked),  and Vince Young (who is TBA right now, but he seems like sort of a head case) are examples.   [Edit: Been told that Brett Favre got a 22... kind of a big deal haha]


So we don't have to hope for a miracle, just that Sam Bradford is the rule not the exception.  (Knock on wood... suggest you do the same after reading this)


(Note: Title was going to be Sam Bradford: Future Bust, but I balked.... mostly because I got scared reading it and it wouldn't go over well)

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