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Bubble bursting for offensive linemen?

Is the veteran offensive tackle overrated? Of course not. In a league where defenses continue a de facto arms race for pass rushers, teams will also pay a premium for offensive linemen. The first round of this year's draft is a good reminder of that. However, recent trades involving Saints OT Jammal Brown and St. Louis Rams OT Alex Barron fetched much smaller returns than some would have initially believed and may signal the emergence of a more rational offseason market for offensive linemen. 

In case you haven't noticed, bubble bursting has been a hot trend for a few years now. Why should the housing market have all the fun, when teams were willing to create stimulus packages of their own for the chance to nab an established offensive lineman? Let's look at the evidence.

Star-divide

Fans and pundits alike knew Alex Barron was on the trading block when the Rams issued the oft-penalized tackle a first round RFA tender that asked only for a second round pick for compensation. Obviously, no teams were willing to give up a second rounder for Barron. Few teams even bothered to explore a trade for a starting left tackle with a spotless injury history until the Cowboys sent backup linebacker Bobby Carpenter to the Rams in exchange for the 2005 first round pick. 

The Saints traded Jammal Brown for a conditional third round pick that could very likely be a fourth round pick, depending on how well Donovan McNabb performs in a convoluted deal. A third round pick in and of itself isn't a bad deal for a 29-year-old Pro Bowl offensive tackle, even for one coming off a season lost to injury. Still, there was a time when Brown was linked in trade talks (to the Rams no less) as part of a deal for a first round pick. 

2008 was the high water mark for the offensive lineman bubble, when offensive guards Alan Faneca and Jacob Bell signed huge deals. Faneca was released by the Jets this spring, who ate his contract in favor of Vladimir Ducasse, a second round pick in this year's draft. Faneca ended up with the Cardinals on a one-year, $2.5 million deal. After getting healthy (mostly) and gaining weight, Bell did a lot to shake off the bust label he earned after one season, but he's still a long way from playing up to his contract. 

Last offseason veteran offensive tackles went to other teams and ended up in the dustbin, see Levi Jones and Orlando Pace. The Eagles acquisition of Stacy Andrews didn't do anything positive for big fee agent contracts to offensive linemen. The exception last year was the Rams signing of C Jason Brown played up the expectations his contract established. 

Free agent additions of offensive linemen slowed considerably this season. So what burst the bubble?

Teams value their offensive linemen and don't let them leave. Offensive linemen are still getting big contracts (e.g. Jahri Evans), but they're getting the bucks from their teams who don't want to replace the bricks and mortar of their foundation. 

Drafting offensive linemen is the preferred route. Yes, Jason Smith's contract costs more than a free agent, but teams get younger, relatively healthier offensive linemen. When teams don't let their blockers leave in the prime of their career that leaves teams little choice other than going to the well in April for their cornerstone offensive linemen...unless they want to spend big bucks on an older guy. 

The price of older offensive linemen is down. Fetching a bounty via trade rarely happens in the NFL as it is, since teams don't usually trade players in the prime of their career like you see in Major League Baseball. So players like Barron and Brown are getting shipped off as extra parts that teams would be unlikely to keep on the roster given the costs of keeping them as backups. Still, it's surprising to see two players, at such a premium position, dealt for returns that seem small. 

Offensive linemen hitting the free agent market will still fetch big contracts, simply because of the law of scarcity. However, the irrational exuberance that once handed out elite-level contracts to middling starters or aging Pro Bowlers seems to have passed. Lesson learned...for now. 

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I think you hit the nail on the head.

If you draft them and keep them in the fold, they’ll usually perform better and for longer. Obviously, not many teams let their star linemen walk if they can help it. Most of the movement that’s seen now is the guys past their prime, and guys who need to be upgraded.

The (only) thing I’ve heard as a knock on us trading Barron is his resistance to injury. I’m an upside guy, myself. If there’s a player with more upside that some good coaching will help, I say keep him over the established, durable penalty machine.

THIS year's the year. I hope....

by thisguy on Jun 21, 2010 12:16 PM CDT reply actions  

Yeah not a big fan of the Barron parade either

Great article Van, and as a finance guy, excellent non-football comparison with “the bubble bursting.”

The Rams can do without Barron’s, “I’ll just play when I feel like it” attitude. Hopefully, the Rams can motivate Carpenter to play, and I think that some competition for the starting position would definitely help.

by 81 Witness on Jun 21, 2010 1:02 PM CDT reply actions  

Makes Logan Mankins interesting, no?

If the Pats do indeed trade him, he’d be a very valuable interior piece for a team.

You don't seem to want to accept the fact you're dealing with an expert in guerrilla warfare, with a man who's the best, with guns, with knives, with his bare hands. A man who's been trained to ignore pain, ignore weather, to live off the land, to eat things that would make a billy goat puke. In *St. Louis* his job was to dispose of enemy personnel. To kill! Period! Win by attrition. Well, *Steven Jackson* was the best.

by 3k on Jun 21, 2010 1:46 PM CDT reply actions  

Get him! We've got highly desirable 2011 and 2012 draft picks to trade. We need help now. Especially when Smith inevitably gets his bell rung.

Of course, according to some amateur wizards on TST there’s absolutely NO good players that ANY of the other 31 teams would trade for some of our future draft picks.

by RamChop on Jun 21, 2010 6:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

So is a 28 year old guard worth a valuable 2nd or 3rd round pick?

He’s not going to make or break our team this year. When we could draft a guard that could probably have equal impact with that pick and he’ll only be 22?

Onubon > Gates

by Carneros on Jun 21, 2010 7:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

In this case yes.

Arguably one of the top 5 guards in the league who has started every game in his pro career, you bet. None of you want the Rams to spend a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a guard anyway. Not with all of those WR’s and TE’s and RB’s out there. What happened to the protect Bradford cry?

by NewMerlin on Jun 21, 2010 8:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

Furthermore, Atogwe is 29, has two injuries and wants a war pension to re-sign. And we're still chasing him.

I think Steven Jackson is, or soon will be, 28. We let Leonard Little play till he was 35. Kurt Warner played till he was 38. And Brett Favre will be back at age 40. Get over the age thing about players dying when they hit 28-29. Some don’t get to start for years.

by RamChop on Jun 21, 2010 8:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

Could see the Pats trade Logan

to the Rams. Not trying to diss St. Louis, but I’m sure in Belichek’s mind he will get a high 2nd and/or 3rd rounder with the Rams than say the Vikings.

by HouseOfGames on Jun 22, 2010 1:58 AM CDT up reply actions  

Looking at our Offensive Line

In terms of age and experience the Rams are a fairly young Team. If you don’t count their long snapper they have only four lineman with six or more years experience.

The oldest OL with six or more years of experience:

Brown, Jason Born: 5/5/83 Exp: 6
Bell, Jacob Born: 3/2/81 Exp: 7
Goldberg, Adam Born: 8/12/80 Exp: 7
*Massey, Chris Born: 8/21/79 Exp: 8
Fraley, Hank Born: 9/21/77 Exp: 10

* Long Snapper

And the rest of the OL four of less years of experience:

Guards:

Lewis, Mark Born: 7/17/85 Exp: 1
Allen III, Roger Born: 2/10/86 Exp: 2
Greco, John Born: 3/24/85 Exp: 3
*Setterstrom, MarkBorn: 3/3/84 Exp: 4

Tackles:

Saffold, Rodger Born: 6/6/88 Exp: R
McKee, Ryan Born: 11/4/86 Exp: 1
Trautwein, Phil Born: 4/15/86 Exp: 2
Smith, Jason Born: 4/30/86 Exp: 2

Centers:

Miller, Drew Born: 7/6/85 Exp: 2

Am I missing anyone?

Go Rams!

"We can't run. We can't pass. We can't stop the run. We can't stop the pass. We can't kick. Other than that, we're just not a very good football team right now." --- Bruce Coslett, New York Jets Head Coach circa 1990s

by Nbr1RamFan on Jun 21, 2010 4:17 PM CDT reply actions  

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