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Mike Sando and Matt Williamson share their opinions on the Ram's first pick

Double Coverage: Bradford to the Rams?

March, 3, 2010

MAR 3 11:24 AM ET  Print  By Mike Sando and Matt Williamson Double Coverage: Bradford and SuhUS PresswireThe Rams' decision with the No. 1 pick could come down to Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford and Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. Fifty days separate the Rams from selecting Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, Oklahoma defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford or some mystery candidate with the first overall choice in the 2010 NFL draft. 

General manager Billy Devaney included Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen in the discussion when asked whether the team was focusing on those candidates. The team could always trade the pick. But prevailing opinion says Suh, McCoy and Bradford are the strong favorites. 

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Who should the Rams take with the No. 1 pick? VOTE

 

The primary question, of course, is whether the Rams should scratch their QB itch with Bradford or continue addressing holes throughout the rest of their roster. The gains Bradford made in weight and overall physical appearance made him a winner at the NFL combine, even though Bradford will not work out until his pro day March 26. 

Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. joined me to discuss the Rams' options. 

Mike Sando: Bradford is gaining ground in the discussion. The Rams definitely need a franchise quarterback. Bradford looks the part. 

Matt Williamson: I have a hard time. They are terrible, they need help everywhere, they need impact players at close to every position. From where they sit in their rebuilding process, I have a hard time straying from the notion that they should take the best player in the draft regardless of position. These defensive tackles are the best two players in the draft. We know that. It’s a high-impact position. It’s not like they are an outside linebacker or running back or something that is easy to find. They are building blocks for what could be an excellent defense. Steve Spagnuolo, the reason he is there is because he was excellent on defense with the Giants. They get Adam Carriker back, Chris Long is emerging and with one of these tackles, they have the makings of one of the best defensive lines in the league with some similarities of what he had to work with in his heyday with the Giants. I strongly think you take one of those two, whoever you like better. Live to fight another day at the quarterback position because the Rams are going to be picking in the top five again next year, and that draft appears much more top-heavy with quarterbacks. 

Mike Sando: Live to fight another day? That's going to be easier if Spagnuolo has a franchise quarterback in place. Drafting one could buy needed time for the Rams' current leadership. The team could have a new owner by the summer. The Rams have gone from 3-13 to 2-14 to 1-15 over the last three seasons. Having a quarterback in place creates a more positive outlook in the absence of on-field results. And let's face it, this team is still going to struggle some. The point about defensive tackle being a high-impact position is debatable. The Redskins shelled out lots of cash for Albert Haynesworth last offseason. The investment bought them another disappointing season. I saw this coming to an extent when I broke down the highest-paid defensive tackles fora blog entry last offseason. Quite a few of them played for losing teams. We all know the NFL is a quarterback-driven league. 

Matt Williamson: Quarterbacks do make the world go round. The other option is taking Dan LeFevour or Colt McCoy in the second round. I would rather have Suh in the first round and Colt McCoy in the second as opposed to Bradford and whatever you get. Maybe the second-round quarterback starts the last four games and looks good. I just think Bradford is a wild card. If we had this conversation a week ago, I would say it’s a no-brainer -- take Suh or whoever else. But Bradford comes to the combine beefed up, he looks better than expected, he is interesting. He is a great fit as a dome quarterback. He is intelligent. Can he stay healthy? That is the No. 1 negative. Because he is bigger and stronger than ever, you have to keep that door open. I would not consider Clausen. 

McCoy Jackson Laizure/US PresswireGerald McCoy, the top player on Mel Kiper's Big Board, is another candidate to be the No. 1 pick. Mike Sando: That's an interesting point on Bradford as a perfect dome quarterback. The Rams' offensive line is decent enough to justify giving a rookie quarterback some playing time, provided the team improves its options at wide receiver and tight end. The Rams have some injury-prone people at receiver, from Donnie Avery to Laurent RobinsonKeenan Burton is coming off major knee surgery. The one thing I keep coming back to is Spagnuolo's desire to find a quarterback with strong leadership qualities. Devaney has also harped on intangibles at that position. Bradford seems to have those things. 

Matt Williamson: I would consider Bradford a great fit in that city, that scheme, all those things. If you bring him in and love him, the doctor says he’s in great shape, he is physically OK and throws well on his pro day, yeah, it's something you have to consider. But there was not much to go on over the last year and a half. Most of the stuff before this week was all negative. I know there are people out there who absolutely love him and think he is that guy. If your doctors say he is ready and he throws well, I would not criticize the Rams for taking him first overall. If we have to make the decision today, though, take one of the defensive tackles. 

Mike Sando: It's a great thing for the Rams if Bradford's stock continues to rise. The first overall pick will gain in value if that happens. If the Rams still weren't sold on Bradford, they might have at least an outside shot at trading out of the pick, a rarity near the top of the draft. The more picks St. Louis has, the better. The Rams have major needs across the board. Any quarterback they select first overall needs to be the difference between winning and losing, not just a decent starter. NFL analyst Greg Cosell and I had that discussion at the combine. The Jets took Mark Sanchez fifth overall last season and then did everything they could to prevent him from impacting games. That might be OK for a rookie, but that pick is wasted if Sanchez never becomes the reason the Jets win games. Same thing goes for Bradford in this draft. He has to be special or the Rams do need to go with the best player available. 

Matt Williamson: Every year, it seems like a prominent quarterback starts to slip. You are still picking 33rd -- the first pick of the second round. Say Jimmy Clausen slips to the 16-17-18 range. You start to get to that point of the draft and most of those teams are good -- they don't need quarterbacks. When quarterbacks start to fall, they usually fall hard. If Clausen falls to 20 or 21, you still have that 33rd pick and it wouldn’t take a lot to get up there. That first pick of the second round is going to be a lot more valuable the way the draft is set up. 

Mike Sando: No doubt. Having the first round in prime time means teams will have a full night to consider their options between the 32nd and 33rd picks. That 33rd pick should certainly gain in value during those hours. If the Rams could address their quarterback situation with the first overall choice, they might be able to trade out of the 33rd spot for badly needed additional picks. Teams have to be careful about overvaluing combine workouts and pro day results. But I really think March 26 could be pivotal for the Rams. If Bradford looks good at that workout, St. Louis needs to strongly consider taking him. It's a risk, of course, but what does this team have to lose? 

Matt Williamson: With the way the draft is set up, maybe St. Louis is best off taking the defensive tackle in Round 1 and letting every team re-stack its board while the Rams get on the phone with Philly overnight. That 33rd pick could be more valuable than ever and if you can walk out of this draft with Suh, trading No. 33 for Donovan McNabb and, say, the Eagles' third- or fourth-round pick, then you really have something. You take this Rams offensive line, McNabb,Steven Jackson, maybe a free-agent tight end and a slew of mediocre receivers with upside. That isn't all bad on offense considering what they had to work with last year. And, of course, you get the defensive lineman that Spags can build his defense around and more mid-round picks to further create depth and competition throughout the roster.

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Interesting.
Live to fight another day at the quarterback position because the Rams are going to be picking in the top five again next year and that draft appears much more top-heavy with quarterbacks.

+1

by Le Ram on Mar 8, 2010 2:46 AM CST reply actions  

+3

And in the spirit of three, here’s the options I’ve seen play and where I rank them:

Jake Locker, University of Washington, 6’3" , 225 lbs

Andrew Luck, Stanford University, 6’4" , 235 Lbs

Ryan Mallett, University of Arkansas , 6’7 (gulp), 256 lbs

Also, someone mentioned Case Keenum, but I can’t quite list him because I haven’t really seen him play much. He’s 6’2", 210 lbs out of the University of Houston, where our very own Donnie Avery comes from.

I’ll be sure to watch him play more this season to get a better grasp of what he can/cannot do.

This class looks a lot better if you ask me. We’d get Suh, and, depending on where in the top 10 we are (let’s face it, we’re not improving much with just a draft, though I hope so), we’d get one of these guys.

"I was just letting the shots fly. You know, I don't leave any bullets in the chamber."

"Everything negative- pressure, challenges- is all an opportunity for me to rise."

-Kobe Bryant

A mantra for all athletes.

by TrojanRam on Mar 8, 2010 5:06 AM CST up reply actions  

6’7" , 256 lbs

I wonder about the mobility there. Jamarcus is a big monster too and runs like a giraffe in quicksand

by CoachConnors on Mar 8, 2010 11:48 AM CST up reply actions  

Here is my concern...

Dial it back a year and replace those pictures with Sam Bradfrd, Colt McCoy, Jevon Snead, Jimmy Clausen, Dan Lefevour, and well I guess you can leave Locker’s pic up there (and add Tebow for some).

Going into last year – THIS year’s crop of QB’s looked much more promising and plentiful then the Stafford/Sanchez/Freeman group. Then reality: Bradford gets hurt, McCoy takes critisim from experts – and then gets hurt, Snead is wildly inconsistent, Clausen steps up (but #1 pick step up? Not so sure), LeFevour still has all the small school stigmas, and Locker returns to school (ala Bradford).

So looking at NEXT years crop, what can happen? Well anything I guess. Locker can get hurt…again. Luck is only a RS Soph, and coming off of an injury. so I can easily see him opt to go back for his Jr year unless he has a metoric draft board rise (ala Sanchez) after one great season (cause lets agree- this years Stanford O was about Toby – not Luck). Mallet could be Snead ’10 after only one good season and see LeFevour when speaking about Case.

Or what if Locker will go number one but the Rams don’t hold that pick? My point is, IF they see Bradford as the potential starter for the next 10 years – they have to take the opportunity to select him.

I have been in the “Draft the QB of the future in 2010” camp for two years now (and wouldn’t have oppossed it last year) as I have always been firmly antiBulger and this is the year he can be released. Heading out of the bowl season though, I jumped into the Suh camp because I didn’t see Bradford or Clausen as a #1 pick, but I have flipped back to the take a QB if they are the “one.” Now I can’t say Bradford is the “one” because I don’t know what the Rams know (medical records, rehab reports, personal interviews, etc – and that is BEFORE he even throws at his pro day and individual workout), but if they feel he is the “one” – then they gotta take him.

The Rams are in a multi-year rebuilding project and every year we wait on drafting the future QB – it just delays the process another year. IMO opinion, it is easier to find DT help (they play in a rotation anyway) in a normal FA year (this year is not normal with all the RFA) then it is to find a franchise QB.

Free Brandon Wood!

by gorams77 on Mar 9, 2010 12:28 AM CST up reply actions  

Case Keenum actually played with Donnie Avery

so there might be that familiarity with each other there to take Avery from good to great receiver….something to think about

by Danteslion on Mar 9, 2010 11:37 AM CST up reply actions  

BPA is all we should do...

I like the article, but don’t feel we need to call the Eagles. I’d rather take a chance on someone w/upside over an older QB who has been prone to injuries. If we take a QB next year then keep here’s our QB’s this season: Bulger, Freely, Null.
I think Quinn still has some upside and would like it if we gave him a shot. Same trade for PHI, but w/CLE.

by RamsFan1979 on Mar 8, 2010 10:30 AM CST reply actions  

...
I would rather have Suh in the first round and Colt McCoy in the second as opposed to Bradford and whatever you get.

I agree on that too.

by Le Ram on Mar 8, 2010 11:28 AM CST reply actions  

Great example.

Curry ranked 125th in the league in regular season solo tackles (54) in ’09.
Laurinaitis is 4th with 107.

And for fun:
Maualuga has 39 (although he has a healthy amount of assisted), and our own Craig Dahl, although not a rookie LB, ranked higher than Curry… 110th in the league (as a backup) with 57. Well done, Craig.

by CoachConnors on Mar 8, 2010 12:41 PM CST up reply actions  

OK

So we don’t know squat about what will be so I propose Billy D just drafts by taking a prospect’s name out of a hat for each pick we have.

I mean you gotta be serious. There are picks riskier than others. Suh is one of the less risky out there at #1. His potential value might be lesser than Bradford’s (if Bradford is truely a franchise QB who can win playoff games all by himself), but I would also estimate that Bradford’s ‘bust probability’ is higher than Bradford’s (shoulder, spread offense, never has won under pressure,…). I know it’s not set in stone and that no one KNOWS. It’s all about ESTIMATION.

Do you want to bet the #1 pick contract money on Black/Red (Suh) or on a straight number (Bradford) ? Returns are much lesser, but if the number doesn’t come out…

by Le Ram on Mar 8, 2010 1:20 PM CST up reply actions  

The point was who is the best player, not who is less risky.

I’m not exactly sure what you’re point is, but I’m talking conventional wisdom, and what it means. (nothing)

But – to your comment,
Should they draft Best Player Avaliable…or Least Risk Avaliable? Does anyone really think they should draft the latter? Play to win, or play not to lose?

If you’re an NFL GM, and you have an idea of who the best player is, that’s who you take. You can’t afford the missed opportunity of passing someone by because he might bust. Especially on a franchise QB (if you think you’re looking at one). And especially when you are using a very rare #1 overall.

If the supposed less risky pick gives less help towards winning in the long run, would it not actually be more risky to the team success? You have passed by a QB for a DT only because of risk? No, dude.

But enough about us….I bet you will not find Devaney and Spags making decisions based on least risk. You’re going to find them confident they can make a judgment on who is best, and taking the risk that he busts is just a part of doing business.
That’s playing to win.

by CoachConnors on Mar 8, 2010 1:45 PM CST up reply actions  

You're assuming that

the ‘risky side’ of the player never comes back to haunt you.

It does… often…

An then, the gutsy, ‘play to win’ stuff, makes you look like a fool…

Sam Bradford is a franchise QB ? So what ? There will 3 or 4 more next year in the draft, with maybe less question marks… and less risk…

But you’re right, it’s all about GMs evaluating players. And I’m sure they take risk into account.

by Le Ram on Mar 8, 2010 3:00 PM CST up reply actions  

No, I'm not assuming that

 I’m saying assuming risk is the cost of doing business and the guys running it are going to believe they can judge the talent good enough to pick the best player.

A real life example: I invest my own money in stocks (and other things).
Is there a great risk in stocks than US treasuries? Absolutely. Is there a greater return? If you get it right, yes.

I believe in my ability to judge the potential for returns and risk…and I am not right on every call…..but on the whole, when you factor in every investment, I do better than just sitting treasuries.

I believe they will look at the risk, they will believe in their ability to judge a player, and they will go with the best player…not the safest. You decrease the risk with having as must knowledge as you can get, but getting ahead (in almost anything) involves taking on risk.

by CoachConnors on Mar 8, 2010 3:32 PM CST up reply actions  

We are on the same page.

I just don’t think that Bradford is that much better than Suh to compensate for the greater risk I see in him.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value

by Le Ram on Mar 8, 2010 7:39 PM CST up reply actions  

I think Clausen should be the pick

But I will be “satisfied” with Bradford and “happy” with Suh. Will not be happy with G McCoy at this point.

by CoachConnors on Mar 9, 2010 12:47 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree about McCoy.

He doesn’t seem committed enough to become a great player.

by Le Ram on Mar 10, 2010 1:09 AM CST up reply actions  

Can I reply to one of your comments?

You said Bradford played in a spread offense, presumably implying that he was in the shotgun and not under center. If you look in another thread here about an interview with Odlahoma’s coach, Bob Stoops, you will see that Bradford was under center for more than half of Oklahoma’s plays, with play action being an important part of their offense. Oklahoma did not run the same type of spread offense that other Big 12 teams like Texas and Missouri used.

by andyrose on Mar 8, 2010 4:27 PM CST up reply actions  

I was looking for the official measurements for Carlton Mitchell to see if he was as big as expected

He was shorter than I though at 6’2’’ but I’m not sure how accurate that is because he’s also listed as 296 lbs. And he ran a 40 in the 4.4s I believe. I don’t think a 300 pounder could possibly do that. I was under the impression he was 6’4’’ 220 not 6’2’’ 300. Does anyone have any accurate info on him? All the college sites have him listed as 6’4’’. Is he really?

by Carneros on Mar 8, 2010 9:22 PM CST reply actions  

Could this possibly be correct?

His NFL Combine page says he weighs 296 as a WR, and ran a 4.49. Wth?
I can’t get the video to play for me, but it seems like maybe they made a typo 196, maybe?

Imaging trying to bring down a 300 pounder who’s busting across the field that fast.. Yikes.

Carlton Mitchell
Height:6’2"
Weight:296 lbs.
Arm Length:33 1/2 in.
Hand Size:10 5/8 in.

His hands are pretty big but the weaknesses part of his analysis looks pretty bad:
Mitchell is still a very raw prospect whose draft status could have improved with another year of seasoning. At this time, he’s a poor route runner on short to intermediate routes. He also likes to body catch and must do a better job of attacking the football away from his frame.

Where would he fit in? 5th WR?

by CoachConnors on Mar 9, 2010 6:29 PM CST up reply actions  

That settles it

       He’s going to Oakland with that size and speed.

by dbcouver on Mar 11, 2010 2:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Mike Williamson seems to echo my views

        until the part about trading the 2nd pick for McNabb.

by dbcouver on Mar 11, 2010 2:44 PM CST reply actions  

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