The Atogwe Factor
by Eric Nagel on Feb 2, 2010 2:30 PM CST
in 2009 Off-Season
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PrintWith the announcement by the Commish' all but nailing the hole in the coffin of the salary cap, this offseason could be an interesting ride for the Rams. The thought of grabbing high-upside young players will most likely go out the window, as any team besides the Raiders will probably tender their young RFA's at a respectable level and even if they do want to dump them, they will most certainly be looking for something in return.
This leads to the unfortunate conclusion that to get some young new players, the Rams will have to give something up. That "something" is most likely draft picks because there aren't too many players on the Rams that others teams would trade a great deal for. It's quite unlikely that the Rams will dump Steven Jackson, but as it's been brought up before, the Rams do have one RFA that should draw plenty of interest: O.J. Atogwe.
The team so far has been quietly (working? Chillar-ing?) on a long term contract for him. I personally don't think it's a coincidence that he was franchised the year a new defensive minded coaching staff was brought in to control the team. I also don't think it's a coincidence the team hasn't plowed through contract negotiations given the state of the RFA situation regarding him. The Rams are most likely moving ahead as a business. That means evaluating how much he is worth, how much he wants, and how much the team can get for him in exchange.
If they are waiting it out to see what happens on CBA front and decide to place O.J. on the RFA trading block, they would probably want to snag a first round pick for him (they'd likely tender him at that level). If he was shipped off for picks, would the Rams go for a FS (most likely through the draft, as it doesn't make sense for them to trade their FS and then ship off more picks for another) or would they use what they already have? If the Rams were to *upgrade* at that position, the only available option in the draft is S Eric Berry from Tennessee (who I might add is probably the only other player worthy of being the first pick). But that would mean that barring the Lions paying for O.J., Ndamukong Suh would not be a Ram (no offense to O.J., but I could live with having the first two picks in this draft).
Bottom line- Is it worth it to try and play the RFA game with Atogwe? So far, the relationship between him and the team has been pretty cordial, but we've all seen what happens when you jerk around a player who wants a long term contract. Make the call in the poll; do you want another first rounder and a Rams team minus Atogwe, or do the Rams keep him and hope the team can find enough ammo to improve the team?
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i was never too high on atogwe
i thought his turnovers forced stats were a tad bit inflated. If you go back and watch the picks that OJ gets, not a lot really stand out. He is not so great in run support, and how many times have you seen a runner get to the second level, easily put a move on Atogwe (who always takes bad angles by the way), and Atogwe just falls flat on his ass.
He does have a great knack for forcing fumbles, I will give him that. But in no way do I think that he is a top 10 safety in the league. If the right offer comes along, the Rams definitely have to take the deal. If there is no offer, they should try to sign him to a modest contract.
I agree..
that is “ballhawking” skills are misleading. A lot of picks have come from tips, and right place/right time situations. I don’t think he’s lockdown in coverage, and he’s a little too susceptible to playaction fakes.
That being said- the only home game I made it to this past year (against the Vikings, but I live in LA, so hey- gimme a break), I watched him closely during warmups. The guy is obviously a leader on the team. He made it a point to go up to each player on the squad, pump them up a bit, and pat ‘em on the back. I was impressed. I’m not in the locker room (obviously) but it seems like he’s ready to step into a larger leadership role.
by mooseknuckles41 on Feb 3, 2010 12:07 AM CST up reply actions
Atogwe
Top 5-7 safety in the NFL. Like Shaq said, “Where’s my money?” He’s much safer than going after an unproven rookie in the draft. Atogwe has shown he can compete in the NFL.
Finally, professional journalists / bloggers catching on to reality!!!
If Atogwe goes, Berry is our first selection unless other players and picks are involved.
O.J. is a very good player, but his problem is he is on a re-building team. This emotionally does not allow O.J. to be at his best! So, trade him and pick up a younger player who can “grow with a new team”!
Not so sure about that emotionally thing. I heard Warner say today on Jim Rome that the best feeling was being part of a turnaround that ended in a SB win.
I know, Warner is such a class act. But Bartell and Jackson seem to feel the same…at least, they say so in the press. Seems like the players have really bought into Spagnuolo’s program.
That said, I drool like a fool over Berry. While OJ (complete with new and improved picture! ) is in his prime at 28 years old, I don’t think we could get more than a 3rd rounder for him. More likely a 4th. He’s just not elite and probably worth more to us than anyone else. Which in turn means our first overall pick probably wouldn’t change.
Of course this just a big pile o’ speculation, but he isn’t elite and won’t command a 1st round pick.
If the Rams played the tender game
their is no way he’d be that low. He’s one of the best available (RFA style) safeties this year (if he isn’t resigned). Teams overpay free agents, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if they spent too much on O.J.
Especially if they have extra picks to burn.
OJ is a good interception guy, and can make turnovers happen. He’s probably somewhere around 10-15 in terms of safety rank, but a 28 year old interception machine would certainly have at least one team jumping at the bit.
The House of Spears reigns supreme
Do they overpay for guys from 1-15 teams? I know they do for superbowl players.
I just don’t see him as a 3rd rounder. Just my opinion.
I'm just saying
that teams jump at stats. I personally don’t think OJ is elite, but I think he’s going to want pretty good money (top 10) and that the Rams could probably get some team that would agree with OJ.
Personally either way, I’d be fine. I have no hate for OJ, just throwing out some possibilities.
The House of Spears reigns supreme
agree
OJ is a good, not great player. (he seems great because he’s the only player we have) If we can sign him for what he is worth, that is awesome.
my secret dream is that OJ leaves and the rams manage to trade down a few spots and they select Berry. I know it’s stupid and would never happen, but i just really think Berry is going to be something special
id like to see berry too
who knows OJ could be traded and we select him with the 1st pick overall. I’ve seen crazier things happen. But realistically I think it’s safer keeping an NFL top 15 caliber safety and drafting a monster DT in Suh
R.I.P Jimmy "The Rev" Sullivan
by keeperskillz24 on Feb 2, 2010 9:13 PM CST up reply actions
With A Good Front 7
i think OJ can reach elite status…………..the guys playing in front of him make a difference. If the front 7 is putting more pressure on the QB, the DB’s look better……….we had almost no pressure on opposing QBs this year
Jake Locker in 2011
Elite? what is elite, top 5?
Atogwe for a free safety is not top 5. Atogwe is probably 7-10 though.
If he were on a better defense, maybe he has less forced fumbles and more interceptions. Yet, if we lose him, we may go Berry with a DT in 2nd round not including whatever we get for Atogwe, if anything. The conundrom is that the Rams need an impact DE, 2 impact OLB, and a Terrence Cody type space easter at Ng or DT to allow for other lighter weight youth DT’s to penetrate gaps to get at qb’s. The defensive backfield has had no help from the front 4 pressure, so anything extra added into the team’s new look from the draft will be welcome.
If Rams CAN trade down a few spots, get Berry and a DE or DT, then go OLB or DE again, this bodes well towards a future impact team.
i like your thinking here jlcdb70
if we were to trade OJ…trade our no 1 spot to pick up Berry, then best avail DT, then BA DE and OLB. Then if LeFevour still on the board grap him up. Then OL help and pick up the best TE we can get in FA.
"SJAX" - The extra strength cleaner that fights off that Stubborn, Stingy Defense
by moy on Feb 3, 2010 2:45 PM CST up reply actions
I'm with CoachConnors here
Why get rid of OJ only to get a low draft pick and open another hole?
"The greatest accomplishment is not in never falling, but in rising again after you fall." - Vince Lombardi
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I think the OJ situation is simpler than it seems.
This guy has been our best defensive player since 2006. Easily.
Since 2006:
A. 174 Solo Tackles
40 Passes Defensed
13 Interceptions
4 Forced Fumbles
1 Sack
B. 264 Solo Tackles
29 Passes Defensed
18 Interceptions
14 Forced Fumbles
2 Sacks
Those are two statlines. Without looking at the stats, whose statline do you think options A or B correspond to between OJ Atogwe and Troy Polamalu? They’re both the same age by the way.
If you must know, OJ’s statline is B. And keep in mind, he’s done all this behind the terrible defensive units in terms of the front 7 in the league for the last 3 years. I can’t imagine what the guy could do with some semblance of a pass rush and a potentially great Mike Linebacker.
I don’t care if he isn’t the greatest physical specimen in the world. I know he’s as smart as any safety in the league, and athletic enough to make him one of the most productive, and yes, TOP 5 safeties in the NFL. I think it’s a no-brainer that his play is rewarded, and I think he’s a big part of this defense taking the next step. As a matter of fact, I don’t think this should even be a question.
"I was just letting the shots fly. You know, I don't leave any bullets in the chamber."
"Everything negative- pressure, challenges- is all an opportunity for me to rise."
-Kobe Bryant
A mantra for all athletes.
He does have a potentially great Mike Linebacker
Albeit, the emphasis there is on “potentially”, haha. Getting all these stats behind terrible defensive units says to me that he sees more ball carriers than he shold, and gets more opportunities from that action. If guys were getting stopped within 5 yards he’d never get a hand on them.
Its all just preference and opinion, but I think a top Safety list might look something like this
- Ed Reed
- Troy Palamalu
- Adrian Wilson
- Loves me some Bobby Sanders, he’s hurt too much lately, but love him
- Kerry Rhodes
- Quintin Mikell played well enough the Eagles showed Brian Dawkins the door (although Dawkins still played great in Denver’s system during his 14th year)
And after that group OJ fits in with the Michael Griffen’s and Chris Hope’s of the league. I don’t consider him a consistant game changer or someone that offenses worry about like they do the guys on the top 5 list. I don’t know, maybe he’s #5 of top 5, maybe not. Its close.
But also, generally speaking, Safeties don’t command the kind of value that a primo CB would. Reed and Polamalu are exceptions to that but I don’t see OJ as a worth 3rd rounder in this draft. Maybe I’ll be proven wrong.
Thank You Trojan
all these guys underestimating and not giving OJ his due credit was frustrating
Jake Locker in 2011
Wasn't Rhodes benched this season? And isn't staying healthy part of being a great player? Bob Sanders has no excuse for his reckless play.
Also, I knew that someone would say that to demean OJ’s stats/contributions on the field. I mean, are we serious here? The same way we praise S-Jax for putting up stats and producing at an elite level with little help from the offensive line in past years, we should praise OJ for producing at an elite level with little to no help from the front seven. About the only stat of his you can knock for having “more opportunities” is the tackle stats, but with the way teams have STOPPED passing on the Rams by the 3rd quarter in past seasons due to lopsided scores, he’s had LESS opportunities in passing situations than the people mentioned. And yes, his stats are elite when compared to all these other guys.
Since 2006:
Reed(age 31): 156 Solo, 38 Passes Defensed, 24 Ints, 5 FF, 1 sack.
Wilson(age 30): 228 Solo, 28 P. Defensed, 13 Ints, 7 FFs, 9.5 Sacks.
Bob Sanders(Age 28): 117 Solo, 10 P. Defensed, 5 Ints, 1 FF, 3.5 Sacks.
Rhodes(Age 27): 241 Solo, 37 P. Defensed, 14 Ints, 5 FF, 8 Sacks.
Mikell(Age 29): 219 Solo, 28 P. Defensed, 6 Ints, 4 FF, 3 Sacks.
Dawkins(Age 36): 258 Solo, 32 P. Defensed, 8 Ints, 12 FF, 4 Sacks.
Sharper(Age 34): 211 Solo, 33 P. Defensed, 18 Ints(tie), 2 FF, 1.5 Sacks.
In bold are the categories in which each player listed has superior or tying stats to the OJ Numbers I posted earlier, and I can guarantee each has/had better Front 7s by FAR the last 4 seasons than OJ had. I want you to pay special attention to the production of Dawkins/Sharper based on their respective ages when were considering this whole contract situation. We’ve yet to see what OJ can do with a front 7, and I can bet that if he were on a better team, much like Steven, he’d be getting much more love than he gets.
Again, I feel like it’s BS that we’re even discussing whether the guy deserves a contract or whether he should be used as a bargaining chip. I’m tired of us letting players go. We never get anything out of it, and this is someone who has undoubtedly been the best and most productive player on our defense for years. He’s lived through the losing and always remained classy, all while producing with the elite safeties in the league, arguably even more production than any of them. Again, when you aren’t a physical specimen, yet produce better than all or most of these guys, then you’re as smart as it gets and a great sport, a true shining spot on this team. Give the man his due and lets build this defense.
Noticed I used little bold in those comparisons. It’s all you need to know about how well OJ Atogwe has performed for us, and he’s done it with little to no help.
"I was just letting the shots fly. You know, I don't leave any bullets in the chamber."
"Everything negative- pressure, challenges- is all an opportunity for me to rise."
-Kobe Bryant
A mantra for all athletes.
What other teams might offer him side for a sec..
You don’t really think Atogwe is better than Ed Reed, Adrian Wilson, Bob Sanders or Darren Sharper, do you? I understand you think a team might offer a first round pick for him but do you really think Atogwe is a better player than those guys?
by CoachConnors on Feb 3, 2010 11:06 AM CST up reply actions
I think if he was on a much better team, he'd definitely be in the discussion.
His production level, given little to no help, is more than enough for me to consider him top 5 easily.
I think he’s definitely better than Sanders given how poor that guy is at taking care of his body and staying on the field. Ask Colts fans. They don’t even like the guy over at Stampede Blue. Like I said, he’s in the discussion, and I hope I get to see what he can do with some pass rush. Saying he isn’t a “game-changer” like those guys just because the Rams offense doesn’t capitalize on the turnovers he’s forced doesn’t mean he isn’t doing everything he can to change the game for the Rams.
His defensive TDs leave something to be desired, but being first in the NFL in Turnovers forced since 2006 IS elite to me and enough to put him in the discussion. You don’t teach all those INTs, and all the opportunities in the world don’t teach how good this guy is at stripping the football. +9 FFs over Reed, +7 over Wilson (surprising), +13 over Sanders, +12 (gulp) over Sharper. Of those guys, only Reed has more picks, and Sharper tied him this season.
The production alone puts him in the convo, and bringing Sanders into the discussion is either unfair to Sanders or a joke. No one that cannot stay healthy should be part of the discussion.
"I was just letting the shots fly. You know, I don't leave any bullets in the chamber."
"Everything negative- pressure, challenges- is all an opportunity for me to rise."
-Kobe Bryant
A mantra for all athletes.
We can think if
Maybe if he were on better teams, then sure, who knows what could happen. You think he’s great, I think (despite your good stat work) he’s the level below elite, but we probably both agree they should keep him.
They better not lose what he brings without serious compensation. I’d love Berry but that’s because Berry looks like elite talent+leadership+young but Berry is the exception, I don’t want them to try to fill an Atogwe-size hole with the average midround draft pick.
I’m glad your passionate about him, even if we dont’t agree on it. Its more fun when sometimes someone tries to convince me they’re in better shape than I think, seems like it’s usually the other way around.
Yeah
I would try to keep OJ I think we can’t afford to take any gambles with our secondary. Plus the guy can change a game at anytime he’s a pretty solid tackler and knows how to jar the ball loose. If some how we could get Berry for him I might be open to the idea but OJ by his play has clearly showed why he should stay. I think the real problem is in the defensive line if we really focus on this unit and get a nfl worthy pass rush Oj, Butler, Bartel and who ever wins a position will benefit greatly
R.I.P Jimmy "The Rev" Sullivan
We don't need anymore holes to fill.
The guy is too smart and too good to let go. Imagine what kind of playmaker he would be if we could apply consistent pressure to the QB.
I have an Atogwe jersey.
He should stay a ram just for that reason alone.
He creates big turnovers and is a play maker. Rams should keep what young play makers they have seeing as there is no upgrade to Atogwe in the draft (Berry aside)
If you can only get a 3rd or 4th rounder for him
then keep him. If you could get a low 1st or high 2nd for him, you might think about trading him. Even when he was out with his injury our safeties weren’t the biggest problem in our defense. Dahl did a pretty good job filling in for him.
even if we can get a 1st rounder for him
how does that help the team? we’re unlikely to trade down so we use the 1st pick on Suh or Berry and then the other 1st rounder on a S or DT. how is this any better than keeping OJ and picking Suh with the 1st overall?
I'm saying you don't have to take a safety early.
We would still have two decent safeties in Butler and Dahl, and we could draft someone further down and bring them along behind the starters. That way we could fill two positions of greater need with the two high draft picks and improve the team.
And we'd be about 7 years younger at safety.
And hopefully we can get someone close in production to OJ
I see your point but
I’m just not sold on the idea of giving up OJ for a rookie and Dahl, who isn’t nearly as good as OJ imo. However given Billy D’s history of trading down from his time in Atlanta I wouldn’t be surprised if this happens
yeah
it wouldn’t be bad if we could get a nother #1 spot. But i mean atogwe will probably be the oldest ram on the defense if little retires and hall departs so we do need to have a vet in the secondary. Dahl I think did a satisfactory job he did get burned a couple times but I think he is a under rated tackler and a great blitzer. But I just dont think teams will give a #1 draft pick for him unless we give up somthing else. Plus OJ i think had a injury that required surgery? So that might bring his stock down a little. So I think you count your blessings and draft Suh and go with the BPA in all the draft rounds.
R.I.P Jimmy "The Rev" Sullivan
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