Draft mistakes and the Rams

by VanRam on Feb 16, 2010 9:05 AM CST in 2010 NFL Draft Comment 21 comments

Ok, we can't talk about ownership all the time, not with the Combine just a week or so down the road. Let's get back to the draft. ESPN's Todd McShay recently shared his four common draft mistakes in a column on ESPN. Reading over them, the first thing that came to mind was how the St. Louis Rams' recent draft history matched up against the four factors cited by McShay.

(The article is hidden behind the ridiculous Insider pay wall. Though I am sharing the four mistakes from the piece.)

1. They will ignore the big four. At the top of the draft, four crucial positions -- QB, offensive tackle, cornerback and pass-rusher -- should trump all others.

2. They will be seduced by looks. Scouts, GMs, even esteemed members of the media get too wrapped up in 40 times and 225-pound bench press reps.

3. They will pay no mind to minds. As one scout told me recently, "You can't win with dumb players in the NFL anymore." This Jeff George-inspired rule isn't so much about human intelligence as football intelligence, not book-smart guys but playbook-smart guys.

4. They will choose need over value. Everyone who has a say in a team's draft starts with the idea that the biggest holes need to be filled first. It's a fair philosophy in a football utopia. But in the real world, hole-filling can't be the only -- or primary -- factor in determining which guy to take.

Apply these to the Rams' last two drafts when they had the second overall pick in both cases. They took an offensive tackle and a defensive end, and I've never had the impression that it was Combine performance that sealed the deal on Chris Long and Jason Smith. In fact, they had OT Jake Long on top of their board in 2008, but the Dolphins got there first.

As far as each player's football mind, Long and Smith both get high marks. Smith learned the ropes at the NFL level pretty fast; tracking his performance from camp to midseason just before he got injured, we saw a player shoot up the learning curve. Long has struggled, finally starting to emerge in the last half of his sophomore season, but I his problems haven't really been the result of his football IQ.

The need over value point is where some Rams fans will argue over the last two first round picks, especially in the case of Jason Smith last year. The idea of "need over value" might not be the best way to describe it though, as some fault the Smith pick for being too conservative. There was much less argument about Long in 2008, and few of of us thought the Rams needed a QB at that point which would have put Matt Ryan in play. There were a few that felt Glen Dorsey was the way to go. Getting back to the Smith pick, since that's the one with the most argument around it, I still think it was a good pick. The Rams had suffered through season after season of horrible offensive line play - ask Marc Bulger - and this was a case where need matched up with value, as so often happens with the depleted Rams roster.

Now, frame the current debate for the first overall pick in these terms (though I'm not the biggest McShay fan, these are good points). It's either QB or DT for the Rams at the top of the draft this year. In actuality, these three things tell us nothing since the likely picks at either position fit the bill for all four points.

This does show how much drafting has improved for the Rams over the last two season, i.e. since Billy Devaney has been involved in the personnel mix.

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Smith should be fine.

I think the new crew has shown promising drafting ability in the past few years. How many people wanted Ray “smash cars” Maluga last year with our second rounder? I was in the group not happy with the pick of JL. JL seems to be the better pick as of now and the future, so I am happy! I am sitting here now, not caring what they do with the first pick but more interested with picks 2-5. It looks like the last few years they have been strong in these rounds so far so I will not be questioning the picks this year until the season begins to evaluate. The only pick that bothered me was the Null.

by ramsrule on Feb 16, 2010 9:56 AM CST reply actions

why is this still a discussion?

if we dont get suh then we deserve to lose

by Danteslion on Feb 16, 2010 11:23 AM CST reply actions

Suh can be part of an 11 man team to stop opponents from scoring...

But who’s gonna throw the ball?

If the Rans don’t flush out all their options and we as fans don’t hold them accountable for this, then they deserve to lose.

by BruinHalo on Feb 16, 2010 11:33 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

Danteslion, tell us this then....

Who will quarterback our team? If we don’t have a decent guy over the ball then I don’t want to watch their games cause we will score zip, nada, nothing and I for one am tired of NOT scoring any points!!!

Go Rams!

"We can't run. We can't pass. We can't stop the run. We can't stop the pass. We can't kick. Other than that, we're just not a very good football team right now." --- Bruce Coslett, New York Jets Head Coach circa 1990s

by Nbr1RamFan on Feb 16, 2010 12:53 PM CST up reply actions

i really dont care who qbs the rams.....

because im not trying to win this year im patient enough………im looking to draft a jake locker, a ryan mallet, or a case keenum….i want to build a great team except for a qb so one of those 3 can step in and pull joe flacco and take us to the playoffs

by Danteslion on Feb 16, 2010 6:42 PM CST up reply actions

The Rams need a new QB, thats a no brainer, but if they use the 1st overall pick to get one they will have majorly reached. I like Bradford, but to grab him with the 1st pick is ridiculous when Texas Longhorn QB McCoy will be waiting there at the top of round 2. Bradford would command too much money, probably wouldn’t be ready to play in his first pro season (injury & inexperience), AND he’ll get killed behind that porous offensive line (destroying his confidence like Bulger and Warner). This team has come to a fork in the road and can choose between 2 paths. The first path would be to patch the holes on both sides of the ball through the draft and free agency. This path might buy them 4-6 wins next year and a mediocre record for the next several years to come, maybe an occasional playoff game. Or this team can start re-building for the future, one side of the ball at a time. They could take advantage by beefing up their defensive line and secondary with the premium picks they have at their disposal. The top of this draft has better prospects available on defense than offense. This would be the best time to solidify the Ram’s defense. So the first overall pick should be Suh or the Sooner’s DT McCoy if a trade down scenario isn’t used. The Rams can tactically take an offensive player (like Texas QB McCoy) if he’s the best player available, but the only offensive position I’d key on in this draft would be right tackle. Realistically the Rams could win 5-7 games next season using this strategy and it would be boring football to what Rams fans have had in the past, but each subsequent season would show much more improvement over the previous one and the start of a run of dominance in the NFC West.

The Steelers started to re-build their team in a similar way in 2000. Under Bill Cowher, Ken Wisenhunt, and Russ Grimm, priority was given to building both sides of their line first (instead of just defense), second priority was given to building up their secondary, 3rd priority was given to adding playmakers on offense. Once they solidified their offensive & defensive lines and secondary, subsequent drafts placed a higher priority on offensive playmakers. The Steelers have won 2 Superbowls and are annual SB contenders now after implementing that strategy. And Wisenhunt has taken that same strategy to Arizona and has made those perineal bunch of losers into SB contenders.

A similar strategy should be used for the Rams, except I think the biggest bang for the buck in the draft will be on defense (in particular, the defensive line) this year for the them. Fortunately for the Rams, they have a coach who learned under a good system with the Eagles and Giants. Lets hope Spags and Devaney doesn’t cave under pressure and select players that can’t bring immediate value to the Rams re-building process. After all, you can’t build a house w/o laying the foundation first.

by Da Rams! on Feb 16, 2010 12:52 PM CST reply actions

Devaney said he was open to

trading down in the draft. How far down? who knows but heed this…

This year’s draft is laden with DTs, five of which I feel could go in the 1st round:

Ndamukong Suh from Nebraska
Gerald McCoy from Oklahoma
Dan Williams from Tennessee
Terrence Cody from Alabama
Jared Odrick from Penn State

At the same time there’s quite a handful of QBs that could go in the 1st or 2nd round:

6’ 3" Jimmy Clausen from Notre Dame
6’ 4" Sam Bradford from Oklahoma
6’ 2" Colt McCoy from Texas
6’ 3" Tim Tebow from Florida
6’ 6" Tony Pike from Cincinnati
6’ 3" Jevan Snead from Ole Miss
6’ 4" Jarrett Brown from West Virginia

So I feel we should ‘trade down’ an get an extra pick (or two) plus still grab both a god DT and a good QB and save paying ‘top dollar’ for the number 1 overall pick at the same time.

Go Rams!

by Nbr1RamFan on Feb 16, 2010 1:26 PM CST reply actions

Wanting to trade down

and being able to aren’t always the same. It is entirely possible no one will want to trade up to the first overall pick since the cost is so high. We all recognize that, unless we believe Bradford or Clausen is a franchise QB, we would be better off if we could trade down a few slots and pick up an extra high pick or two. However, that takes another team willing to make the trade and I’m not sure any team out there is willing to do it for anything like a fair package of picks.

by andyrose on Feb 16, 2010 1:54 PM CST reply actions

I've grown acclimated to drafting a quarterback

Allthough I absolutely love Suh, and think he’d be a great addition to our team, I can see why we should think about drafting a quarterback.

My problem comes with drafting a quarterback first overall. I don’t think anyone will argue that either of the QB’s available are absolutely the top players available in the draft. And if your going to draft someone who isn’t the best player out there, why are you going to end up paying him like he is the best.

If we trade down a few spots, then that becomes more palatable, but if we stay at number 1, how do you justify paying Clausen or Bradford that much money when they aren’t the best player out there.

by GrnGyant on Feb 16, 2010 3:36 PM CST reply actions

If we can't trade down

Whats stopping us from going all Vikings on the first 2 picks and waiting until just before the redskins pick to name our QB.
All we have to lose is a hold out. Considering the factr that our QB won’t need to be in camp the first few weeks for us to get the value for him anyway what would it hurt? It might save a little cap space. Eventually space will matter. I wouldn’t want this to be plan A of course. Trading down or drafting Suh is and has been my preference but I too am willing to acclimate myself to getting our QB in round one.

by dbcouver on Feb 16, 2010 4:21 PM CST up reply actions

Let's face the facts...

The Rams draft wizards are no better than a monkey with a dart board. Once in awhile, like the blind hog, ya stumble upon an acorn like Lauranitis. But most of the time ya pass up a franchise QB like Sanchez for a soft skulled guy like Jason Smith. Then ya waste a draft pick on a guy like Null who had no chance of being drafted. New regime or old regime, name ‘em; who’s happy with picks like Barron, Tye Hill, Carriker, Brian Leonard, Joe Klop, Keith Null or even the damaged Smith or the fast becoming mediocre Chris Long? We suck at the draft. So just take a sure thing like Suh, especially since our D-Line stinks like sh*t. Then get the best available OLB and bring in Mike Vick so we’ll have a chance to win a half dozen games next year…

by edpjr on Feb 16, 2010 9:10 PM CST reply actions

You named two guys this "regime" has drafted.

And one of those guys (Null) is really a non-factor. Nevertheless, when you call Mark Sanchez a “franchise QB”, you kind of lose me. Unless you’re talking about the money spent on him because that’s the only quality he has displayed that even smells of “franchise”.

But, I find it very interesting that you call the Smith draft was a bad pick (because he got a concussion that could never have been predicted) but they got lucky to get Laurinaitis. I suppose if they’d have taken Maualuga in the 2nd you’d be happier since he was considered the better linebacker? Anyway, sounds like you might be trying to have it both ways.

Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.

by Tackle Box on Feb 17, 2010 7:14 AM CST up reply actions

Mark Sanchez

I agree with Tackle Box. Would everyone on this forum have been happy with the Rams drafting Sanchez and him throwing 12 TDs and 20 picks? Those were his actual stats from this past year for the Jets. Our record would probably have been the same, and we would all be screaming at the Rams for not drafting Jason Smith. The only reason Sanchez looked ‘good’ (note the airquotes) is because he was on a team with a terrific defense and running game. Sanchez would have looked bad in blue and gold getting sacked, throwing picks and losing games.

If you believe – as I do – that the Rams left tackle and MLB of the future were drafted last year, and that one CB spot, RB, C, one WR, one DE, and the FS spot were already in place. I think you have faith that we are probably 2 good drafts aways from having a playoff team in place.

This year hopefully we get a game changer at DT, get Carriker back and he becomes a force at either DT or DE, we pick up a QB of the future and get a franchise quality TE. I think 4 wins is achievable in the 2010-2011 season.

by STLRambler on Feb 17, 2010 8:52 AM CST up reply actions

I agree with almost everything except Carriker.

That’s one guy I pretty much agree 100% with ed. I wouldn’t (and don’t) put any faith at all in Carriker.

Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.

by Tackle Box on Feb 17, 2010 11:42 AM CST up reply actions

Either LB would've been a good deal Tackle...

I’m quite satisfied with Lauranitis. But, I can’t help thinking Sanchez might’ve been a bigger impact player than Smith. Bulger proved his career as a starter was over in 2009, as did Boller, and Null was void of any success. So a year later, we still need a QB while one we let get away, by making the “safe” pick, played as a rookie in the AFC Championship game. Sure I know the Jets are a helluva lot better fb team than the Rams. And, Smith, through no fault of his own, proved once again that there are no safe picks (except maybe Suh). My guess is that Sanchez will continue to improve and impress as he gains experience. Finally, I think the Jets and Ryan would’ve traded us several good players (they have a lot) just to get Sanchez if we’d picked him. They wanted him bad. So one kinda has to wonder if Smith alone was worth the value we could of gotten by keeping or trading Sanchez….

by edpjr on Feb 17, 2010 9:22 PM CST up reply actions

With most people the question is whether they see the glass as half empty or half full.

Ed, you’re the only guy I know who not only sees the glass as pretty much completely empty, but also with a crack in the bottom and a couple of chips out of the rim. But, that’s your personality so that’s okay. As long as we all understand, it’s not a problem.

I tend to think Smith and Long are becoming pretty good players and I’m glad we have them on our roster. We all agree the past administration was absolutely pathetic in their drafting, but the first year under the new group looks pretty decent to me and I’m hoping for bigger things this year. Life is too short to continually be unhappy.

by andyrose on Feb 17, 2010 2:32 PM CST up reply actions

Andrew ol' buddy, as long as we're 3-13, 2-12 or 1-15, I'm not gonna be a happy camper.

I read an article by one of the talking heads on SI the other day. He was outright calling Smith a “loser” and saying we shoulda drafted Sanchez instead. I sure hope he’s wrong, cause we can’t begin to compete in this league with deadass Alex Barron playing at LT. My worry about Smith is the concussion thing – nobody knows how it’ll play out. I also count Adam Carriker as a total loss. I think Bulger is completely done. So is Boller. And Null is a never-was. I also believe SJax aged 3 years last season from all the wear and tear. Chris Long is no all-pro, but he’s our whole D-Line right now. Lauranitis is great, but he’s gotta have some help on both sides. Our team is in the sh*ts big time. But, I believe we can make great strides this year simply by taking Suh #1, spending our 2nd pick on an OLB and procuring the services of Mike Vick as QB. Those two major additions on defense would complement Long, Lauranitis, Butler, Bartell and Otogwe (unless we let him go) and maybe raise our D ranking to 20th or better. On the offense, Vick and SJax together in the same backfield with blocking by Karney, Smith, Brown and Bell might jolt opponents out of being able to only focus on Sjax or having a statue like Bulger to blast off on during passing downs. There’s also a chance Robinson and Avery might catch a few balls. Avery can fly and Vick can throw a looong way. So, only 3-4 personnel changes might have a tremendous impact.

by edpjr on Feb 17, 2010 9:04 PM CST up reply actions