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Scenarios for making Playoffs

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I have been thinking a lot more about how the Rams can make the post season. Seattle play has been extremely sloppy as of late, however they are still very much in it, so I will be comparing them to Seattle (I really don’t think 49ers have a chance because they play Green Bay and San Diego and Rams to make them 6-10). The game at Seattle on week 17 will most likely come down as the decision maker on whether the Rams will make the playoffs, and I will tell you why this so important in different scenarios.

Scenario 1: Let’s say the rams win 2 of their next 4 games, while Seattle does the same. This would make them both 7-8 and the winner obviously goes to 8-8 and makes the playoffs, and the loser goes to 7-9.

Tie Breaking Procedure #1: Head to Head Wins/Losses

Scenario 2: Let’s say the rams win 2 of their next 4 games, while Seattle wins 3 of 4. This would make Seattle at 8-7 and Rams at 7-8. If the Rams win that game they would both be 8-8, and Rams would move on because of Tie Breaking Procedure #1 (Rams beat Seattle in regular season both times).

Scenario 3: Let’s say the rams win 3 of their next 4 games, while Seattle wins 2 of 4. This would make Seattle at 7-8 and Rams at 8-7. If the Rams lose that game they would both be 8-8, and It must go on to Tie Breaking Procedure #2 (Currently Seattle has more division wins than Rams)

Tie Breaking Procedure #2: Division Wins/Losses

Scenario 3 needs to be looked at in more depth: Let’s assume Seattle wins in week 17 for this sub-scenarios.

Scenario 3.1: Rams win both division games leading up to week 17, and Seattle wins their one division game. This would make Rams at 3-3 and Seattle at 4-2 in the division. Therefore Seattle would move on to the playoffs.

Scenario 3.2: Rams win one of their next two division games, and Seattle loses their one division game. Same situation as in 3.1, it would make Rams at 2-4 and Seattle at 3-3 in the division. Therefore Seattle would move on to the playoffs.

Scenario 3.3: Rams win both division games leading up to week 17, and Seattle loses their one division game. This would make Rams at 3-3 and Seattle at 3-3 in the division. This would then move on to Tie Breaking Procedure #3 (Best win % on common games)

Tie Breaking Procedure #3: Common Games Wins/Losses

Common games include Ari (x2), SF (x2), SD, TB, Car, NO, KC, Den, ATL. Rams currently sit at 3-4 of these common games with Ari, SF, NO, KC left to play. Seattle currently sits at 4-3 of these common games with SF, TB, Car, ATL left to play. Since we are assuming Rams win both division games and Seattle loses their division game, this will make Rams at 5-4 with NO, KC left to play, and Seattle at 4-4 with TB, Car, ATL left to play.

Who has the advantage here? Rams will probably lose to NO, and Seattle will probably lose to ATL and beat Car, making Rams at 5-5 with KC left to play, and Seattle at 5-5 with TB left to play. Hence, the Kansas City game is huge! Let’s assume both get to 6-5.

Tie Breaking Procedure #4: Conference Wins/Losses

On to Conference games… Rams would sit at 4-4 with NO left to play, Seattle sits at 4-3 with Car and ATL left to play. Seattle would take this tie breaker with a win against Carolina (which we assumed).

 

NFL Tie Breaking Procedures:

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

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