Scenarios for making Playoffs

by PCarn on Dec 1, 2010 10:27 AM CST

I have been thinking a lot more about how the Rams can make the post season. Seattle play has been extremely sloppy as of late, however they are still very much in it, so I will be comparing them to Seattle (I really don’t think 49ers have a chance because they play Green Bay and San Diego and Rams to make them 6-10). The game at Seattle on week 17 will most likely come down as the decision maker on whether the Rams will make the playoffs, and I will tell you why this so important in different scenarios.

Scenario 1: Let’s say the rams win 2 of their next 4 games, while Seattle does the same. This would make them both 7-8 and the winner obviously goes to 8-8 and makes the playoffs, and the loser goes to 7-9.

Tie Breaking Procedure #1: Head to Head Wins/Losses

Scenario 2: Let’s say the rams win 2 of their next 4 games, while Seattle wins 3 of 4. This would make Seattle at 8-7 and Rams at 7-8. If the Rams win that game they would both be 8-8, and Rams would move on because of Tie Breaking Procedure #1 (Rams beat Seattle in regular season both times).

Scenario 3: Let’s say the rams win 3 of their next 4 games, while Seattle wins 2 of 4. This would make Seattle at 7-8 and Rams at 8-7. If the Rams lose that game they would both be 8-8, and It must go on to Tie Breaking Procedure #2 (Currently Seattle has more division wins than Rams)

Tie Breaking Procedure #2: Division Wins/Losses

Scenario 3 needs to be looked at in more depth: Let’s assume Seattle wins in week 17 for this sub-scenarios.

Scenario 3.1: Rams win both division games leading up to week 17, and Seattle wins their one division game. This would make Rams at 3-3 and Seattle at 4-2 in the division. Therefore Seattle would move on to the playoffs.

Scenario 3.2: Rams win one of their next two division games, and Seattle loses their one division game. Same situation as in 3.1, it would make Rams at 2-4 and Seattle at 3-3 in the division. Therefore Seattle would move on to the playoffs.

Scenario 3.3: Rams win both division games leading up to week 17, and Seattle loses their one division game. This would make Rams at 3-3 and Seattle at 3-3 in the division. This would then move on to Tie Breaking Procedure #3 (Best win % on common games)

Tie Breaking Procedure #3: Common Games Wins/Losses

Common games include Ari (x2), SF (x2), SD, TB, Car, NO, KC, Den, ATL. Rams currently sit at 3-4 of these common games with Ari, SF, NO, KC left to play. Seattle currently sits at 4-3 of these common games with SF, TB, Car, ATL left to play. Since we are assuming Rams win both division games and Seattle loses their division game, this will make Rams at 5-4 with NO, KC left to play, and Seattle at 4-4 with TB, Car, ATL left to play.

Who has the advantage here? Rams will probably lose to NO, and Seattle will probably lose to ATL and beat Car, making Rams at 5-5 with KC left to play, and Seattle at 5-5 with TB left to play. Hence, the Kansas City game is huge! Let’s assume both get to 6-5.

Tie Breaking Procedure #4: Conference Wins/Losses

On to Conference games… Rams would sit at 4-4 with NO left to play, Seattle sits at 4-3 with Car and ATL left to play. Seattle would take this tie breaker with a win against Carolina (which we assumed).

NFL Tie Breaking Procedures:

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

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Comments

Two Clubs: 12

I lol’d at coin toss not really fair but I guess it’s the only thing that would be left.

by ramswo85 on Dec 1, 2010 10:38 AM CST reply actions

No way there will be a tie breaker to be decided beyond 2nd decision process.

Seattle is already at 3-1 and to end up at 3-3 would have to lose to the Rams which means the Rams would have beat them twice (tie breaker #1).

Anything beyond the 2nd tie breaker is meaningless (i.e. Seattle beats the Rams in Week 17 and both have identical records-Seattle 4-2 at worst, Rams 3-3 at best).

by RBramfan on Dec 1, 2010 10:48 AM CST reply actions

If the Rams...

…can win
@ Arizona
and their last two home games vs SF and KC I think they are definitely in.

I certainly believe this is very likely…well the KC game will be extremely tough but because they have KC at home, I think it is a winnable game.

Seattle has a tough go from here on out. They have to go to the stick and beat SF, then play ATL at home then TB on the road… The rams lost all of those same games and I think seattle will as well. This makes the last game @ seattle for the Rams a moot point.

by leadhead on Dec 1, 2010 10:50 AM CST reply actions

That was the scenario posted by

since1969 here

Us being 8-7 and Seattle being 6-9 going into week 17. I would definitely love this scenario better than “needing” to beat Seattle in the final week so we can rest some of our key players for the playoffs.

by RBramfan on Dec 1, 2010 11:01 AM CST up reply actions

Great job of breaking it down PCarn, but...

….every time we have gotten to .500 or near it this year we have laid an egg. We were 2-2 and were talking past the Lions before we got slaughtered in Detroit. We were 3-3 and talking past the Bucs before we let that winnable game slip away. We went into the bye week at 4-4 and in first place, feeling good about ourselves and we went up to Frisco and blew that game (as well as got robbed). The way the Cards looked in that MNF game we might think that they might just be a speed bump on the way to the NFC West title but keep in mind, Calais Campbell and Greg Toler were not on the field against the Niners and will be back this week against us. Those two players were solid against us in week one.

I seriously doubt that Spags is looking at the playoff picture and he shouldn’t be. As long as we win our games, take care of business and let the chips fall where they may. The way I see it, as long as we sweep the rest of our division games by beating the Cards, Niners and Seahawks, we are in!

I'm suffering from an extreme case of laurinaitis!

by NachoD on Dec 1, 2010 11:11 AM CST reply actions