Should the Rams be worried about Steven Jackson?
by Ryan Van Bibber on Nov 18, 2010 7:10 AM CST
in 2010 St. Louis Rams season
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Don't be alarmed, yet, but St. Louis Rams RB Steven Jackson is having a rougher season than observers might have imagined.
Jackson has started in all 9 of the Rams' game this season. Through that time, he has 192 carries for 757 yards and 3 TDs. As a receiver, he has 25 catches for 236 yards and 0 TDs. Not bad numbers. However, he's averaging 3.9 yards per carry, the lowest total of his career. In 2008, he averaged 4.1 YPC, rushing for over a 1,000 yards in 11 starts.
Calculating Jackson's totals over a complete season, he's on pace for 1,345 yards, which would be his third highest total, less than last year's 1,400+ yards. More of a red flag for the Rams front office is Jackson's pace for total carries. Extrapolating his average attempts per game, 21.3, out over the rest of the season, Jackson is on pace for 341 attempts. That would be his second highest total. He had 346 carries in 2006, and then missed 4 games the next season with injury issues.
He's on pace for 45 receptions (third highest total), 419 yards (second highest), and has an average YPC of 9.4, a number consistent with his best YPC totals through the years.
That Jackson's rushing numbers have slowed from expectations as well as historical norms should concern fans and the team alike. In part, you can blame some weaknesses in run blocking this season, though Jackson's had to contend with lesser offensive lines than this one. FB Mike Karney is also having a down season, likely slowed by age and the physical nature of what he does. A renewed emphasis on the pass has changed the nature of the offense that used to only feature Jackson, but it's not as though Sam Bradford's passes are taking reps from Jackson.
The biggest concern is with Jackson himself and natural decline of players in his position who feature that physical style of running. Of course, he's been a one man show for the Rams offense over the years, which has accumulated in extra wear and tear. Injuries have kept Jackson off the field only once this season, when he left early with a groin injury in the Rams week 3 win over Washington. However, that groin injury bothered him for a few games following that one. He's had to contend with a broken hand since then as well. Neither injury has kept him on the bench, but they both raise big red flags about Jackson's health in the weeks ahead, not to mention the next season.
The most concerning sign of all might be the noticeable lack of lengthy runs Jackson has this season. He has just 4 runs of 20 yards or more. He had 12 in 15 games last season. Using more advanced stats, the Rams running game, i.e. Jackson, has an open field yardage number (runs 10 yards beyond the LOS) of just 0.54, the 23rd lowest in the league. Last season, that number was 0.88, the 11th ranked in the league.
It's premature to call it the end of Steven Jackson. What it does say is that there's a legitimate concern about his health for the rest of the season and, more so, next season. It's clear that GM Billy Devaney has to find a backup for Jackson; really, he needs to find a guy who can take away about 100-120 carries, making Jackson more effective and extended his career.
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I've been saying this for while
Graet post van and stat research
Timeline is a big issue with sax. RB needs to be addressed in the off season
Pooch punts should be illegal inside an opponents 38 yard line.
Wait a second
He is on pace to have the second most carries in a season but the passing game is taking away reps?? If the passing game were taking away reps that’s fine because it will only prolong his career and he can catch the ball very well so he can still get touches. Sooner or later we certainly will have to cross that bridge but I think with Sam at the helm SJax will have another solid 3 years.
Yes potentially, 3 years
So getting guy this offseason and working him him, gaining experience would be perfect timing
Pooch punts should be illegal inside an opponents 38 yard line.
NO potentially----significantly less than 3 years
one of Jacksons roles is protection for Bradford. As it might sound like he is getting a rest from getting less carries, he is still getting thumped protecting Bradford. Time is taking its toll and I don’t think a RB can withstand the test of time, not even “Action Jackson”. Let’s get this man a ring before its to late.
The only thing comparable to a Rams win is a 49er loss!
I believe he said
" A renewed emphasis on the pass has changed the nature of the offense that used to only feature Jackson, but it’s not as though Sam Bradford’s passes are taking reps from Jackson."
So eventhough he isn’t running the ball he is still out there picking up blitzes and such. The Rams definately do need to find a good backup that can take the load of SJ.
Go Rams!
IF we had better b/u RB's
Jackson would be more effective, but since our b/u’s aren’t very good he’s still the stud we rely on. This doesn’t mean we ignore a bigger need on offense: WR. IMO Jackson isn’t used as a receiver as much as he could.
BTW, you didn’t extrapolate anything. You projected Jackson’s future numbers based on his current ‘trend’. Extrapolation means you find the point[s] between two known values, one
Lol
Nice try smarty pants but he did actually extrapolate data, finding data between two known values is interpolation. But anyways, Jackson does look less explosive, sometimes he just can’t beat that one tackler to break the run open that he did in years past. I guess he’s just been spoiling us for the last couple years but it kills me when I see some defender trip him up with some of those shoelace tackles that Jax wouldn’t have even noticed a couple years back. He’s still one of the better running backs in the league but its becoming more obvious than ever that he definitely needs some younger help.
Steven Jackson .... Boss
Agree w/ you on your point that SJ isn't used enough as a receiver
i like when they line him up on the outside…creates a couple different options and makes it harder for the defense to read.
extrap, interp…whatever you call it, the Rams need to have a backup plan for Jackson
by Ryan Van Bibber on Nov 18, 2010 9:01 AM CST up reply actions
LOL @ ME
Yes, interpolation is finding the value betwen two known points & extrapolation [linear as is being used in this example] doesn’t require an end number. Tho adding up the avg’s to get a season total is NOT extrapolation and if I ask you to extrapolate what SJ’s week 11 or 16 rushing yards will be, based on the above example, what do you say? LOL…
The Rams have never had a good b/u running back; we had Hodges & Holcombe b/u Faulk. Prior to that; it’s not even worth mentioning our main backs much less the b/u between the Faulk and Dickerson era.
by RamsFan1979 on Nov 18, 2010 10:46 AM CST up reply actions
LOL!
On the definition of interpolation vs. extrapolation. That brought me back to calculus…
by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Nov 18, 2010 12:41 PM CST up reply actions
well lets see
If you take the limit as n goes to infinity of steven jackon’s touches…then you integrate from danny amendola’s catches to brandon gibson’s dancing YAC…
you’ll find that e=mc^2.
Sam Bradford drops back, sees Laurent Robinson in the open, and he completes the pass for a gain of 28! Oh- Wait, looks like a holding penalty is going to call this one back...(Oh wait; Barron's gone, ignore that last sentence).
Wouldnt say I'm overly concerned, but
Our offensive line is noticeably improved from last year, so at this point in the season, I would expect a lot of the numbers/stats listed above to have increased.
I think we’re all in agreement that we’ve got to get our future RB on the squad ASAP. Having that person this year would’ve proven very beneficial to SJAX, our new stud, and our run game as a whole.
With that being said, I love #39 (in case he’s following my posts). Big guy’s got a soft side
He's going to get old fast I'm afraid
It is clear to me this season that he just doesn’t have the explosive capabilities left that he needs to make huge, game breaking plays. He’s a big, nasty back that can hit a hole hard and punish defenders.
The best rushing teams in the league feature backs that are quick and creative, that can create opportunities where none exist. Jackson is the RB equivalent of a big, physically imposing WR that runs great routes, but lacks the speed to truly be a game changer. The Rams’ dirty secret is that opposing defenses are not really afraid of their rushing attack at all.
I want to qualify this post just a bit by stating that Jackson is and has been one of my very favorite Rams players ever since he was drafted. He is extraordinarily gifted is ways that could be a huge benefit, but he is not a guy that I believe can be the centerpiece of an effective offense.
I disagree completely...
… It looks to me like Jackson has alot left in the tank. This goes back to Cogs and probably a bit of alex barron. Dont get me wrong, they are gone and that is the right decision completely. But Spagnolo last year when Richie’s antics were at their peak would not put someone in his spot because incognito was a good blocker.
This isnt to say that the current Oline cant run the ball like that, but the line is almost entirely new over last year. You cant expect them to insta run block like last year when the Rams slammed Jackson up against 8 in the box and could still get more than 4 yards a carry. It is just not gonna happen.
Watch Jackson the times when he seldom gets into open space! He is still fast as shit!
With things the way they are now, I feel like the coaches should convince Jackson to split reps with Darby in the first half and see how that goes then feature him in the second half. I thought even against the 9ers Dline, the Rams were starting to get something going in the running game. If Jackson is a little fresher in the 4th quarter, the Rams can salt away games with their current running game I think.
Here are a couple of his runs this season...
The run against seattle with a ripped up groin, look at how many he outruns
Then there is the Washington 42 yard TD run where he beats Laron Landry to the corner. Landry closes slowly, but he is one of the fastest cornerbacks in the league.
Then the Raiders run He practically outruns the entire raider defense!
Nope 39 is ok and is waiting for his line to take then next step and get him into open space a bit more.
loving that video.
makes my love for Sjax multiply by Sam Bradford (which is more than infinity)
I agree he may have lost a step, but when it comes down to getting the yardage you need, Sjax will do it.
also, in the open field he can still make a guy look straight foolish, the juke vs San Fran evidence of that.
he has lost that top end speed a notch or two, while still being FAST, but he can still bounce outside and get to the corner, we just need to call plays that enable him to.
Bradford to Onobun!
My personal thoughts
Two big things:
First is the groin injury. It’s obvious that the injury has affected his ability to explode into gaps, to accelerate as fast as possible to get up to top speed. His top speed is still there, but it’s taking an extra couple of yards to get there from the groin injury. He looked almost 100% in San Fran, so hopefully a lane or two against the Falcons will give him a chance to show the home fans he’s back on track.
The more important factor though, and one that certainly explains the numbers (at least the drop in yards per carry) is a shift in the offensive system in the last four years.
Here are Marc Bulger’s total passing attempts if taken over a full 16 games from 2003-2008: 567, 555, 574, 588, 504, 469, 439. You can see it tailing off starting in 2006 when Linehan took over, and started pushing Jackson as the offensive threat of the team – not the passing game. In doing so, the offensive line’s run blocking was the primary method of pushing the ball downfield.
Bradford is on pace to throw the ball 594 times this season. We don’t run to open up the pass anymore – we pass to open up the run. In doing so, we’ve tailored the offensive line as a passing-first offensive line (think Indianapolis, the opposite of the Cowboys).
This isn’t a system designed to develop huge runs. We don’t have the personnel to dominate the running game. This is a team that is going to move the ball through the air and use the run to pick up short first down conversions and fool defenses.
It’s not Steven Jackson that has changed; the system has.
You don't seem to want to accept the fact you're dealing with an expert in guerrilla warfare, with a man who's the best, with guns, with knives, with his bare hands. A man who's been trained to ignore pain, ignore weather, to live off the land, to eat things that would make a billy goat puke. In *St. Louis* his job was to dispose of enemy personnel. To kill! Period! Win by attrition. Well, *Steven Jackson* was the best.
Interesting observation
made me think and sounds like you hit the nail on the head with this one.
by RamsFan1979 on Nov 18, 2010 10:49 AM CST up reply actions
3k, that could be part of it, but in the two games following his injuries
he has the lowest YPC’s of the season
Seattle 22 carries with a 3.2 average
Carolina 23 carries with a 2.6 average
Also of note, he is only 30 yards total from having a 4.1 season YPC so I believe it is more injury related.
Just my thoughts.
Yeah it's definitely been a factor
And I mentioned that, but even in the first two games of the season he averaged under 4 ypc. So while injuries, especially the groin injury, have to be considered, it’s only one aspect of the overall statistical decline.
You don't seem to want to accept the fact you're dealing with an expert in guerrilla warfare, with a man who's the best, with guns, with knives, with his bare hands. A man who's been trained to ignore pain, ignore weather, to live off the land, to eat things that would make a billy goat puke. In *St. Louis* his job was to dispose of enemy personnel. To kill! Period! Win by attrition. Well, *Steven Jackson* was the best.
the need isnt there yet
But if mark ingram falls to us and no stud WR are available I would be alright taking him
by RamsFan7 on Nov 18, 2010 11:32 AM CST via mobile reply actions
The only problem I have with this article
Is it was written about Steven Jackson with human problems. You see, Steven Jackson is not human, and as such, is not held in constraint to human problems such as injury or age.
Sam Bradford drops back, sees Laurent Robinson in the open, and he completes the pass for a gain of 28! Oh- Wait, looks like a holding penalty is going to call this one back...(Oh wait; Barron's gone, ignore that last sentence).
by Eric Nagel on Nov 18, 2010 11:35 AM CST reply actions 2 recs
He is the best
And he deserves the best from the team and the fans.
I love SJ39...
and I hope he still has a few good years left. He is very special, and I’m so glad we have him!
Go Rams...go Sammy B!!!
Yes The Rams Should Be Worried
If SJ39 keeps on at this pace what will happen to the Rams Year or two from now. It’s easy to say lets address the RB position in the offseason. How about addressing the WR position ASAP to help SJ39 with the offense. Sam is going to be great but we wont know how great until help arrives. So SJ39 needs help not now but right now. I know another RB is a need however some WRs is a bigger need. That would help to extend SJ39 career. See Eddie George, Larry Johnson, Corey Dillon. all RBs who had to carry a team literally. With the exception of Dillon you really seen the fall in productivity of the other two. Through lack of a QB or WRs. Over 300 carries is crazy for any RB year in year out. How many years will be left? with that type of beating?……….Get SJ39 and Sam some help ASAP……..
I wish the Rams were
a designated Thanksgiving Team. That would make the already great holiday even better.
The only thing comparable to a Rams win is a 49er loss!
Yes! We've allowed SJax to be pummeled for years.
The constant wear and tear takes a toll. He’s had thigh and groin problems, plus the broken finger. Many of us hoped we’d get him a credible b/u to take a few carries, but Westbrook found his way to SF and Marshawn Lynch got to Seattle. We’re still saddled with Darby and Toast.
The thing is
It’s been obvious for the last couple years that he needed another RB to spell him. Besides the nagging injuries, he’s got very little lateral movement, which means that the other team’s defense either knows what he’s going to do (run up the middle) or tackle him easily from the side.
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