Reading the stats...and the tea leaves
The statistics won't tell you anything about the 2009 St. Louis Rams that you would not have otherwise been able to pick up after watching a few games: they stunk, really, really stunk. However, the numbers do confirm some interesting trends about the Rams and the direction they're headed.
Checking the Numbers, a nice little stats blog, has a review of the Rams 2009 season that I would highly recommend to you. There's one thing that really stands out to me in Larry's analysis. Even though they were still among the worst in the league, the Rams defense performed much better than the Rams offense. A couple points of note:
The Rams defense held opponents much closer to their average points scored, while the Rams offense scored far fewer points than opposing defenses allowed on average. That same pattern held true for total yardage gained.
For me, the one truism that this underscores is how badly the Rams need talent on offense. We saw that all season long, not just late in the year as the injury list filled up with key starters. Had the offense been more effective - and when I say offense here I really mean the passing game - the win-loss record would have looked a little different.
The biggest weakness on defense was against the run, where the team made every running back look like Eric Dickerson. Obviously the Rams' need for a DT had something to do with that. However, I think play behind the front four had as much to do with the porous run defense as anything. Back in December, this post looked at the performance of the Rams run defense before and after the team traded WLB Will Witherspoon. I still think the lack of a real threat on the weakside hurt the Rams run defense as much as the lack of a run stopper at DT. Opponents were able to put men on MLB James Laurinaitis, and run wild with him covered up. The fact that blockers were able to get to the second level indicts the offensive line, but a better OLB would have still made the going tough for running backs even with Animal Jr. out of the play.
I would also add here that the Rams cornerbacks didn't do well in run support either, and opposing running back too often were able to get too far down field once they got past the 5- and 10-yard mark beyond the line of scrimmage. You'll note the run defense stats from Football Outsiders show a Rams defensive front fairing as poorly on the edges as they did in the middle.
So what does this tell us about the Rams' needs and likely direction as we approach free agency and the draft? While the team has lots and lots of needs, the biggest holes are on the offense. While the defense isn't necessarily "close" they are better positioned to get a big boost next season. I think specifically that they can find a better group of supporting players that would compliment the key defensive players the team has in MLB James Laurinaitis, FS Oshiomogho Atogwe and DE Chris Long.
Spagnuolo and defensive coordinator Ken Flajole were able to get some pretty solid performances out of their players, especially guys that are probably best suited as role players and depth that found themselves starting with the Rams. This head coach made a reputation for himself making those second tier players into household names. That should give you some insight into what course the Rams will follow in free agency and the draft. I'd be really, really surprised if they jump into the bidding for any of the A-list free agents on defense and concentrate on the players just behind them. Think James Butler.
And if you want an early start on reading the draft tea leaves, keep an eye on what moves they make, if any, at DT and DE. Given the return of Adam Carriker and their common practice of using DEs in the middle, I wouldn't be shocked in the least bit to learn that they're making DE a priority over DT. And if that's the case, they might try to find an experienced specialist DT to play against the run or look for a DT in the second or third round of this draft, which is deep with DT talent that should go well into the second round...especially with so many 3-4 teams just looking for NTs.
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Comments
Good post
I think one thing that would tremendously help is picking up osi. He’s made no secret he doesn’t like new york and maybe James Butler and Spags can convince him to come over. He will not come cheap that’s my concern. Arron Kampman would be another pick up I would like. Because we need some vets on the line James Hall and Leonard little might be gone next year.
In a world where dreams come true I would like to see us trade down and grab some extra picks or a player and get Gerald Mcoy and then grab a OLB and a Receiver. Just some wishful thinking.
R.I.P Jimmy "The Rev" Sullivan
by keeperskillz24 on Jan 13, 2010 3:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Osi would be great...but you know someone is going to overpay him...
Ram’s can’t spend too much money on one player/position (other than the draft…for obvious reasons)
by jb22 on Jan 13, 2010 8:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thought provoking post
Well done.
If the Rams sign a vet DT, that may be the first indication they’re looking at DE or QB in the draft. Personally I’d be very surprised if they draft a DE number 1 overall. Maybe not shocked, with all the holes this coach needs to fill, but close to it.
I think the offense may look worse than the D in the stats, but I don’t think they’re more than a couple players away from good on offense. Talent at the QB and TE spots could really work wonders on this team if the Wides and O-linemen would stay healthy for a few weeks. I do believe the passing game is going to be better next year, assuming QB play that is “equal to or greater than” 2009’s effort.
My outlook on the D is that they are more than 2 players away. I’d like to see upgrades to the line, OLB, CB and S. Does that cover everybody? I guess so. Well, I’ve never been as happy with the St Lou secondary as some of the other guys have been.
l think the numbers are a little misleading, and the D is more in need of a widespread talent infusion than the O. Certainly the D doesn’t have anyone akin to Steven Jackson on their side of the ball. JL might be, one day, but he’s not yet.
by CoachConnors on Jan 13, 2010 4:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
the thing about the offense is
that it’s hard to hide deficiencies at big positions like QB and WR. It’s not hard to do OK with adequate players on D, but you have to have weapons to score on the other side.
Turf Show Times
by VanRam on Jan 13, 2010 4:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And lets not forget, numbers in a vacuum...
… won’t show things like talent wasted on the IR, or take into account mid-season signings. For example, someone can’t simply look at Gibson’s stats and think he had a terrible year because he only came over mid-season.
Seems to me our WR production was very low partly due to key injuries early on, and it’s possible that if LRob and Avery had a clean healthy start to the season, we’d have an entirely different view of the Rams’ overall talent and needs in the WR spot.
by CoachConnors on Jan 13, 2010 5:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
funny thing is
I wonder if the Rams would have bothered trading for Gibson without LRob hitting IR so early. If LRob can stay healthy for a couple seasons, it might be more about finding the right complementary player for the top three mix.
Turf Show Times
by VanRam on Jan 13, 2010 8:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, LRob
I just don’t feel like spelling either half of his 15 letter name.
by CoachConnors on Jan 14, 2010 11:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Defense is vital, but
Every defenses has weaknesses and can be beaten. We cannot build a defense without a descent offense supporting it. We need a QB of the future plain and simple. I am certainly a Clausen supporter and clearly slurpping up the guy. If you are a Clausen denier then you have to agree that we need a QB in 2011 aka Mallet or Locker. I will grant you that both look very promising.
No second round quaterback is worth their grain in salt as a starter, save for that brett fravra guy and Brees(a 32nd overall pick in his draft year).A second round QB would be a waste especially if Sean Witherspoon, Bradon Lafell, Jared Odrick, or C.J. Spiller are still on the board after picking the SUH-minator.
Defense does make champions, but this post proves one thing. WE NEED TO MOVE THE BALL.
by JerseyRamsFan on Jan 13, 2010 4:41 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
If CJ Spiller was still on the board by then
I’d call Devaney myself.
The Rams would be stupid to not pick him up.
I believe in 2010
by ram_rod on Jan 13, 2010 5:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually....
In order to become a winning team with a dominating defense, all you really need is a good running game. We already have a good running game. Something tells me Spags is trying to build what the Ravens had years a go when they won a Super Bowl. I’m not saying that it’s going to be easy, but I do think that is what he is shooting for.
With a running back like Steven Jackson it’s very possible to have a ball control offense, a big bruising RB that is also a threat to catch passes out of the backfield.
by bdemartin on Jan 13, 2010 5:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
if you just a slight upgrade at QB
to more of a game manager type (a la Campbell) or solid enough rookie to play behind a solid OL and in front of a top-flight running back.
Turf Show Times
by VanRam on Jan 13, 2010 8:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Walterfootball hits it right on the head
He looks like Reggie Bush. He’d be a good WR/RB combo, and with that in mind you could always put both CJ and SJ on the field. Imagine having to defend that.
I believe in 2010
by ram_rod on Jan 14, 2010 1:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I've always been a defense kind of guy
but we are talking about an offense that put are defense in some of the worst situations imaginable. Fumbling the ball and throwing interceptions in our own redzone. Plus you have to add to the fact that they where tired and fatigued half the time because of the offense’s ability not to move the ball and have multiple 3 and outs. I also think our front office is going in the right direction the decision to add Butler Brown and Karney all had some what of an impact. Craig Dahl is a decent back up, And both L Robinson and GIbson had shown upside. I really do have faith in this organization and their ability to find talent we have some things in place lets keep adding the pieces baby.
R.I.P Jimmy "The Rev" Sullivan
by keeperskillz24 on Jan 13, 2010 5:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'm defense first
Which is why I will support the Rams if they think Suh is the best player available.
If the defense was not as bad as we thought, maybe the Rams could put together a package to acquire Kevin Kolb while still drafting Suh?
by blindmouse on Jan 13, 2010 8:42 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
the Eagles will almost for sure never give away Kolb
he is their QB of the future, we would have to grossly overpay for him.
by jb22 on Jan 13, 2010 9:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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