The Hype Machine
by Eric Nagel on Jan 12, 2010 5:04 PM CST
in 2010 NFL Draft
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PrintThe 2010 NFL Draft is sure to be many things. It could be a launching point to a proud and long career in St. Louis for Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh, (known as Suhnami, Suhpaman, etc. around here). It could be a launching point for Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen (who might also be picked by the Rams). But one thing that should be hammered into people's heads, no matter how praising scouting reports may be, is that almost no player is lock to be a NFL success. I'm not writing this to try and slam down what you think about the top prospect(s) of the draft this year, but to merely throw a grain of salt in the holier-then-thou angelic glow these prospects have recieved.
Over the course of the last ten years, their have been almost as many busts in the top end of the draft as their have been good players. While Suh is surely a highly rated prospect, the same high rating seems all to familiar...
This quote is from warroomreport.com. I had some trouble finding exact quotes, as scouting reports from 2008 aren't exactly big news right now, but suffice to say, this same feeling was felt in many other places back then:
One, if not the top, DT prospects to enter the NFL in the past 10 years, Dorsey showed the ability to dominate in the SEC when healthy... He projects to work in any defense.
Sounds quite familiar doesn't it? Just like Glenn Dorsey, Ndamukong Suh has had his share of the injuries. Again, don't think I'm trying to persuade anyone to not pick him, but pegging him as the savior of the defense is a little much for someone who has never played a snap in the NFL, "elite talent" or not.
Remember Courtney Brown? John Wooten (Baltimore's assistant director of pro personnel at the time) said this about him:
"When I wrote my report on Courtney Brown, I said, 'This is the next Bruce Smith. I'll bet money on it,' "
From experience, that would have a good bet to go against. What about the one and only inconsistent Jimmy Kennedy? Mike Silver hit the nail right on the head when he said he was inconsistent and that all to familiar phrase:
...there were games he dominated
was said about Jimmy Kennedy. People oooh'd and awww'd for Dewayne Robertson that same year. While compiling some of the biggest recent draft busts, Angel Nevado at Bleacher Report summed it up perfectly:
Robertson was advertised with Warren Sapp-like potential
Regardless of their style of play, their speed, their size, all draft picks are ultimately measured on one thing: potential. Why else would Vernon Gholston have gone so high? The teams see that potential and they jump for it. Reiterating what I've said previously: this isn't a bash-fest of Ndamukong Suh. He's unarguably the best prospect in the draft and he is well worth the 1st pick. But he is being measured in potential. Stats and games for the Cornhuskers aren't going to do any good at helping the Rams get back into playoffs. It's way too early to anoint him as the catalyst to the second fearsome foursome. It's too early to say he's going to help propel Chris Long into Patrick Kerney territory. His NFL book hasn't been written yet and some people need to realize this.
As Billy Devaney put it best:
it's scary to use a high pick on a DT.
Ndamukong Suh already has massive shoes to fill. If he does indeed come to the Rams, let's all hope for his sake that he can fill them.
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Interesting write-up...
…but ram_rod, given thy love for Clausen, would you care to provide quotes of praise for the likes of:
Alex Smith
JaMarcus Russell
Kyle Boller even?
I’m particularly interested in Brady Quinn.
Right now, Scouts Inc. has Clausen rated as their 28th best prospect. I’m not sure there’s ever been that big a difference between the position picked and the overall rating of the prospect, unless we’re talking Darrius Heyward-Bey. I’ve seen Clausen play plenty of times, and I just don’t get the sense that the guy is a QB worthy of #1. Maybe that’s the hype machine difference, but when you watch Suh play, is there ever a weakness exposed? Is there a sense that the guy won’t at least be a Pro-Bowler?
It can be argued that the QB position is a bigger need (a hard case to make OVER DT when you see our Rush D statistics), but if the players aren’t rated nearly as closely as overall prospects versus the relative minimal difference in direness between needs, don’t you take the better player?
I’m not sure Clausen can close the gap enough from now, January 11th, to April 22nd. His talent has to be close enough to Suh’s to pick him, since both needs seem equally dire if you ask me. Free Agency is the cork in all of this, and it may sway the vote one way or another, as of now, Suh has the clear edge as an NFL prospect and Clausen (or Bradford) would have to close the gap emphatically because everything that can be said about DT busts via the press prior to the draft is applicable to QB busts-to-be before the draft, and QB busts are arguably more devastating.
"I was just letting the shots fly. You know, I don't leave any bullets in the chamber."
"Everything negative- pressure, challenges- is all an opportunity for me to rise."
-Kobe Bryant
A mantra for all athletes.
Holy crap that last sentence was a big Run On.
"I was just letting the shots fly. You know, I don't leave any bullets in the chamber."
"Everything negative- pressure, challenges- is all an opportunity for me to rise."
-Kobe Bryant
A mantra for all athletes.
Yes it was.
But an important run-on. I’m gonna be sad if anybody Spags and Devaney pick will ever be qualified as a bust.
THIS year's the year. I hope....
Is a Bust a Bust?
A lot of us consider a lot of them as “busts” without really looking at the league norms to qualify them as such. example: Had Bulger left instead of Warner, and wound up with the Cards throwing to Fritz and Boldin and crew-I have no doubt that Bulger would be in the same playoff spot as Warner, and we would be yelling to dump him, and cursing the FO for letting Bulger slip away. Same with Barron. If he is the indicator for the bottom LT of the NFL barrel, then how is it that other teams have more QB sacks than we do? Looking at the stats, maybe Barron is not that big of a bust, more like a blip. But we list him as someone with the plague. The comparisons with player to player levels parsed by conditions go on, but I’ll wait till the dust settles and crank on it next June.
there busts....
related to where they were picked in the draft….In this case Alex Barron was picked 19th overall and is not living up to the expectations of a 1st round pick…Now if we had drafted him say in the 4th or 5th round then I think that he would have been a pretty solid draft pick.
I belive the Draft position is overated
Also overated is the concept that sacks coming from the left is the sole responsability of the LT. In some cases, LT with a high number of slips still make the Pro-bowl. Of the Rams 48 sacks, only 2.5 was blamed on the LT. All in all, a strong showing by Barron.
Rank, Team, Sacks Allowed, Left Tackle Sacks Allowed
1. Saints 16 3
2. Bengals 17 5.5
T3. Browns 19 2
T3. Packers 19 4
5. Patriots 21 5.5
6. Texans 22 8
7. Colts 23 5.5
T8. Cardinals 24 1.5
T8. Chargers 24 8.5
10. Cowboys 25 1
11. Buffalo 26 5
12. Giants 28 12.5
13. Redskins 29 6
14. Titans 30 4.5
15. Jaguars 31 6.5
16. Broncos 32 3.5
17. Panthers 33 8.5
T18. Bucs 36 4
T18. Seahawks 36 5.5
20. Vikings 38 7
21. Ravens 39 2
22. Raiders 41 10
23. Dolphins 42 3
24. Bears 43 8
T25. Falcons 47 4.5
T25. Steelers 47 9
27. Rams 48 2.5
28. Eagles 49 10
29. Jets 53 8.5
30. Lions 54 14
T31. 49ers 55 10.5
T31. Chiefs 55 9.5
Now factor in how many times
a) He was called for a penalty
b) One thing I don’t think anyone has mentioned is that he was caught quite a few times last year and flagged because he was too far away from the line of scrimmage (backwards). This could quite easily give him an advantage to get set up and ready for any move the defender would need to make, as the defensive player couldn’t just simply blow right by him before he knew what hit him.
I believe in 2010
Once for sure, maybe twice-
For lining up in the backfield. He was however the most penalized player for falsse starts. How all that would play out in a Pro’s/Con’s chart I don’t know. But the list shows that he has great talent, if he chose to apply it in a team spirit.
I know for sure he at least had two
I agree, he is talented. But all that list shows is how many times a sack was credited to him. It says nothing to how often teams overloaded his side, whether he had help, whether S-Jax or Karney or someone else in the backfield picked up a block he missed.
There is no denying he has talent, he was drafted in the first round, but that list doesn’t quantify how talented he is.
I believe in 2010
There is no doubt that Clausen has the same question marks as well
I just think that Suh has much more hype surrounding him, and I’ve certainly noticed posts like:
Suh will instantly make JL and CL better, it will immediately affect our whole defense. Things like that. That’s a lot for a rook tackle.
I believe in 2010
he is right though
there has been just as much bad talent in the draft as good, the Rams just need to do a better job of weeding out the bad. I get your point about the warren sapp contrast and everyone needs to through that one out the window SAPP is SAPP and Suh will eventually become SUH given the right teachings. The only problem I have with picking a QB is that it is just as easy to pick a bust too especially seeing as this years class have so many clear cut weaknesses Bradford, Clausen, McCoy, Tebow. Many experts say when you’re rebuilding a franchise you get a franchise player(usually QB), take the player that is best for the team like a suh. The Rams need to start by getting that defense in order and the rams can always get Jason Campbell(who is very underrated by the way).
agree with proceeding with caution on Suh
I think I’ve been the most skeptical one on Suh here at TST in recent months. Not that I believe that he can’t become a great NFL player, but I can’t shake the feeling that his amazing size and athleticism (relative to collegiate players) won’t be as outstanding at the pro level in comparison to the much larger O-Lineman he will go up against. Your average 4-3 DT weighs around 320 pounds. Suh is about 300, and he’ll obviously put on weight as he comes up to the pro level, but just keep in mind that his size will not be an asset to him.
Obviously he is not a finished product at this point, and if he can develop a nice set of skills, than he will be a pro-bowl DT for sure. But we should remember to stay objective and not fall in love too much with his physical prowess (remember Vernon Gholston?)
p.s. i’ll probably get blasted for this (to clarify i am not against Suh…just thinking out loud is all)
Its Easy
to pick out quotes from the internet then use them as if everyone is stating what you quoted. Its not like the majority of news guys were saying these things about Kennedy, Dorsey, and the others………in the case of Suh, the majority ARE saying that he’s great………..get my drift?
Jake Locker in 2011
On the contrary
The majority of them were saying those things. It’s quite hard to find scouting reports from 10 years ago mind you, in the case of Dewayne and Jimmy, but Dorsey’s hype was real.
Dorsey isn’t a yet a bust, but his production should hopefully stop people from proclaiming Suh as the next DT of defensive lore before he even plays.
I believe in 2010
QB is the most important position in sports
no matter how good Suh is, the rams need to start a new era. A new era starts with leaders, we got Laurinaitis on defense now we need one on offense, it doesn’t matter how good your running back is or your wr, the leader on offense is the QB.
but is there one worth the pick?
a QB picked 1st overall could end up guaranteeing over $60m. can you confidently give me a name from this QB class worth that investment? I agree that the offense needs a leader at the QB position but why handicap the team for years to come by reaching for a QB out of need when they could get Campbell in FA to bring some experience and leadership? I’m not saying make him the franchise QB of the future but he’ll certainly fulfill a role for the Rams. Any team the finishes 1-15 has alot of needs. We need playmakers on both sides of the ball and imo the strategy for the draft should be to take the best available player with the 1st and 2nd picks and then pick for need thereafter.
by IrishRamsFan on Jan 13, 2010 7:04 AM CST up reply actions
Dam people....
Cant anyone see that Jason Campbell is not the answer… He is no better than having Boller or Bulger as your QB….Its Kevin Kolb we should be going after, seems to me like he is going to be the next Matt Schaub…..Anyways we would be worse with Campbell
next year
we will have more wins than 1. I project us drafting somewhere around the 5th pick. Take QB for less money then and we will still have a shored up defense (hopefully) and still get to see some more of these recievers.
sounds good. Time will tell
We need someone on the offense to become a spark, hopefully one of these recievers can step up and stay healthy and be a nice suprise. I catch myself saying this the last few years. Who knows who will be throwing the ball to them though.
The Eagles will not give up Kolb.
He will be their starter in the next yar or two. You have a better chance of getting McNabb.
Rams not sure Suh is a fit
I was listening Bernie Miklasz’ show on 101 ESPN yesterday. At the very end of the show, Randy was saying that some higher ups in the organization don’t think Suh is a fit for the Rams. He went on to say that the Rams in previous years have always said that they would never spend that high of a draft pick on a DT. Granted it’s a new regime, but some people who share that sentiment are still around.
I don't think it's a smokescreen
We can do a trade somwhere, then get 3 or 4 top tier DL’s a little lower for what we would pay for Suh
Okay...
so what will be the future article posted on this site if the Ram’s pass on Suh by drafting someone else #1 overall or trading down AND he goes on to a hall of fame career? In hindsight, missing on what could be a sure-fire HOF pick is even worse than picking a draft bust. Its shows the team has a completely inept staff, at least Devaney could always say that Ryan Leaf was the projected #2 overall player in the draft when he was picked by San Diego. In other words they didn’t buck the trend. So wouldn’t the Colts passing on Peyton Manning be worse than the Chargers selection of Ryan Leaf? Hate to use another sport to drive my point home, but don’t you think the Portland Trailblazers regret passing on Michael Jordan for Sam Bowie???
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