Running the numbers for the Rams at Seattle

by VanRam on Sep 10, 2009 3:24 PM CDT in Game Planning Comment 7 comments

by David Kohl - AP

Reaaaach for the win.

Football Outsiders has updated their projected DVOA for all NFL teams. Jeff at Rams Gab has a rundown of where they put the St. Louis Rams' DVOA (hint: it's good). To get ready for the season opener this week, I wanted to compare the Rams and Seahawks DVOA projections.

OFFENSE

Rams: 5.7% (14)
Seattle: 11.4% (6)

Seattle's getting the benefit of the doubt among the national media because of Matt Hasselbeck's return to health. He's also got a better, i.e. less injured, group of receivers around him now, led by offseason acquisition T. J. Housmanzadeh. Julius Jones and Edgerrin James are their running backs...crickets chirp. If I'm Seattle, I'm deeply concerned about the injuries to their offensive line, especially to LT Walter Jones, who'll miss this week for sure and maybe the entire season. That's the situation the Rams will need to exploit, and if Hasselbeck ends up on the ground too much, that healthy season could quickly come to an end for the 34-year-old QB.

A middle of the pack number for the Rams offensive is positively stunning compared to being among the league's worst last year. Our offensive line and a healthy Steven Jackson no doubt have much to do with that projection. FO is a big believer in Donnie Avery too.

DEFENSE

Rams: -2.7% (9)
Seattle: -1.3% (15)

The actual DVOA numbers aren't as far apart as the rankings make them seem. Seattle has a very suspect secondary, and I think their defensive line gets too much credit with Patrick Kerney as their only real standout.

The Rams defense could be better than it seems, and the number reflects that. I'd expect to see more of the fancy, schmancy blitz packages we got teased with against the Bengals in preseason play this week, especially give Seattle's injuries on their o-line. The Rams defense still has to ease concerns about their run stopping ability.

Going by DVOA alone, Seattle looks like the favorite in a tight game. The beauty of a close matchup like that is it could go either way. A forced turnover here or a penalty there could be the difference.

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Comments

The Rams seem to play well against Seattle most of the time. This game should be no exception.

There is no doubt in my mind that we can win the game, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we lost.

Spagamania is in full bloom

by ram_rod on Sep 10, 2009 3:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

DVOA?

What does DVOA stand for?

by revrue914 on Sep 10, 2009 4:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

It's not Seattle's D-Line

It’s their LBs, which are the best in the league: Hill, Tatupu and Curry. Mebane (DT) is not to scoff at either.

As long as Bulger stays upright, we win. The game is going to revolve around the trenches and not the specialty players. The d-line needs to apply pressure and the o-line needs to keep Bulger upright to open the running game.

by 81 Witness on Sep 10, 2009 4:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Last year in Seattle they blew our butts away

How the game will go should be evident early. If our offense goes 3 and out the first couple times at bat, we’re hosed. And, if our 1st score is a field goal, that’ll be a harbinger of bad things to come. Look for a score like Seattle 21 Rams 9. Conversely, if our Defense lets the Seattle RB’s blow through holes for more than a couple long gains, we’re done. Also, watch if we keep allowing critical 3rd down conversions. IF we can limit Seattle to FG’s, we gotta legitimate shot; Rams 17, Seattle 16.

by edpjr on Sep 10, 2009 6:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm seeing a Rams Win!

Even though we are 7.5 dogs, i still like the Rams in this one…Sea has a good defense and their home field adv. is always big…but their offense should struggle. Walter Jones and Chris Spencer are out and their running game was bad to begin with. We should blitz the s**t out of them and I like our chances to maybe even win this one going away!! Bulger may need a Quarter or two shake off the rust but i see like a 7-3 game at half and we win 20-10!!

by ramsfansincela on Sep 11, 2009 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The big wildcard is going to be turnovers

The Rams defense has been much more aggressive the last three weeks of the preseason, stripping the ball and playing the ball, especially the new look secondary — James Butler with the long return, Quincy Butler having a nose for passes. We know the Rams’ defense is not going to play lock-down football, like we saw from the Steelers and Titans on Thursday. But they can make up for a lot by getting the ball back by any means necessary.

RamsHerd.com - Graphic Rams Discussion

by taiko on Sep 12, 2009 1:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs