Running the numbers for the Rams at Seattle

Football Outsiders has updated their projected DVOA for all NFL teams. Jeff at Rams Gab has a rundown of where they put the St. Louis Rams' DVOA (hint: it's good). To get ready for the season opener this week, I wanted to compare the Rams and Seahawks DVOA projections.

OFFENSE

Rams: 5.7% (14)
Seattle: 11.4% (6)

Seattle's getting the benefit of the doubt among the national media because of Matt Hasselbeck's return to health. He's also got a better, i.e. less injured, group of receivers around him now, led by offseason acquisition T. J. Housmanzadeh. Julius Jones and Edgerrin James are their running backs...crickets chirp. If I'm Seattle, I'm deeply concerned about the injuries to their offensive line, especially to LT Walter Jones, who'll miss this week for sure and maybe the entire season. That's the situation the Rams will need to exploit, and if Hasselbeck ends up on the ground too much, that healthy season could quickly come to an end for the 34-year-old QB.

A middle of the pack number for the Rams offensive is positively stunning compared to being among the league's worst last year. Our offensive line and a healthy Steven Jackson no doubt have much to do with that projection. FO is a big believer in Donnie Avery too.

DEFENSE

Rams: -2.7% (9)
Seattle: -1.3% (15)

The actual DVOA numbers aren't as far apart as the rankings make them seem. Seattle has a very suspect secondary, and I think their defensive line gets too much credit with Patrick Kerney as their only real standout.

The Rams defense could be better than it seems, and the number reflects that. I'd expect to see more of the fancy, schmancy blitz packages we got teased with against the Bengals in preseason play this week, especially give Seattle's injuries on their o-line. The Rams defense still has to ease concerns about their run stopping ability.

Going by DVOA alone, Seattle looks like the favorite in a tight game. The beauty of a close matchup like that is it could go either way. A forced turnover here or a penalty there could be the difference.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Turf Show Times

You must be a member of Turf Show Times to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Turf Show Times. You should read them.

Join Turf Show Times

You must be a member of Turf Show Times to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Turf Show Times. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker