Schedule strength stronger than it looks

by Ryan Van Bibber on May 26, 2009 8:51 AM CDT in 2009 Off-Season

Yesterday, somewhere in the not-quite-unconscious, but not-really-awake fog of food poisoning, I had a vision. And in this vision, there was this football team, one surrounded with lots of questions, one nobody was really sure of. Yet it was there, moving through 17 weeks of the space-time continuum with shiny gold and blue uniforms, a quarterback more like his old self, and offensive and defensive lines that exceeded the point of mere competency... was it just a dream? Maybe. But for some reason it did get me thinking about the Rams 2009 schedule, which as you can see is no walk-through.

This morning, among the living (i.e. not on the toilet), I came across this piece about the NFL's silly "strength of schedule" system it uses to set up the season based on each team's prior season record. Only, as the author reminds you right off the bat, teams change, sometimes dramatically, from season to season. Let's take a look at the Rams situation.

Based on 2008 performance, the Rams opponents for 2009 have an overall record of .465. Like any number used to paint a broad picture, that's skewed by the individual teams. For instance, one of our opponents, the Detroit Lions, went 0-16 making the overall win percentage number look a little different. More importantly, look at what some of the teams we'll play this year have done since the close of the season.

The Redskins (week 2, away) spent oodles of money this offseason, headlined by the addition of DT Albert Haynesworth.

The Bears (week 13, away) perhaps made the biggest moves of all, bolstering their struggling offense with the addition of the franchise's first legit QB in a long time.

Ultimately, it doesn't matter. The Rams have to rebuild to compete and being able to compete means being able to handle the toughest opponents. This makes it tougher to get that record back to .500 this season, but trial by fire might just be the best way to make the changes stick.

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lions

last i checked the lions went 0-16 last season.

by sj39 on May 26, 2009 9:49 AM CDT reply actions

oh yeah

forgot it was that bad.

I’ve corrected that item

Turf Show Times

by Ryan Van Bibber on May 26, 2009 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions

Here's the whole storyon the NFL's silly "strength of schedule" system...

The best description I found on this subject was the NY Giants press release that dates back to August 22, 200.

It pretty much lays out the NFL’s formula for teams schedules. This occurred when the 16 teams realigned into two conferences subdivided into 4 divisions each making up the current 16 teams in the NFL.

You can read the Press Release here:

http://www.giants.com/news/press_releases/story.asp?story_id=812

However, if you don’t care to read the press release here’s pretty much how it goes in a nutshell (a big nutshell):

Since the 2002 season, the NFL has scheduled a nationally televised regular season kickoff game on the Thursday night after Labor Day, prior to the first Sunday of NFL games to kick off the season. The first one, featuring the San Francisco 49ers and the New York Giants, was held on September 5, 2002 largely to celebrate New York City’s resilience in the wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks.

Since 2004, the NFL has indicated that the opening game will normally be hosted by the defending Super Bowl champions as the official start of the NFL season.

Under this scheduling system, the earliest the regular season could begin is September 4, as it was in the 2008 season (as the 1st falls on a Monday), while the latest possible is September 10, as it will be in the 2009 season, due to the 1st falling on a Tuesday.

Currently, each team’s 16-game regular season schedule is set using the NFL’s pre-determined formula:

Each team plays the other three teams in their division twice: once at home, and once on the road which constitutes 6 games.

Each team plays the four teams from another division within its own conference once on a rotating three-year cycle: two at home, and two on the road which constitutes 4 games.

Each team plays the four teams from a division in the other conference once on a rotating four-year cycle: two at home, and two on the road which constitutes 4 games).

Each team plays once against the other teams in its conference that finished in the same place in their own divisions as themselves, not counting the division they were already scheduled to play: one at home, one on the road which constitutes 2 games.

This schedule guarantees that all teams will play each other at least once every four years, and will play in every other team’s stadium at least once every eight years.

This schedule also guarantees that regardless of a given team’s final divisional placement in the previous season, the 16 games that team plays in this current season will consist of:

Four games against opponents who finished the previous season in first place in their respective divisions.

Four games against opponents who finished the previous season in second place in their respective divisions.

Four games against opponents who finished the previous season in third place in their respective divisions.

Four games against opponents who finished the previous season in fourth place in their respective divisions.

I think that pretty much covers it.

So yes, you could say "strength of schedule" does play a role in the scheduling but mainly in the form of teams of equal positions in their respective divisions.

Go Rams!

"We can't run. We can't pass. We can't stop the run. We can't stop the pass. We can't kick. Other than that, we're just not a very good football team right now." --- Bruce Coslett, New York Jets Head Coach circa 1990s

by Nbr1RamFan on May 26, 2009 3:46 PM CDT reply actions