Late round QB picks finding homes in the NFC West

by Ryan Van Bibber on May 14, 2009 9:22 AM CDT in St. Louis Rams history

The Rams decision to draft a D II QB from West Texas A&M left fans and pundits alike scratching their heads. In a year where the draft's QB class had few standouts, the Rams officially made Keith Null their developmental project. Can Keith Null make it in the NFL? And the larger question, do quaterbacks from the later rounds of the draft have much success making their way into regular roles with NFL teams?

Playing in the NFC West, Keith Null should be right at home as a sixth round pick. Check out where the starting QBs in the NFC West came from:

QB	Draft round/pick, year
Marc Bulger	6th rnd/168, 2000
Matt Hasselbeck	6th rnd/187, 1998
Kurt Warner	undrafted free agent
Shaun Hill	undrafted free agent
Alex Smith	1st rnd/1, 2005

First of all, I don't know what the starting QB situation in SF is, and I don't think they do either. I do know that their first round pick has to actually fight for his job. If Smith does earn the starting role by the Bay, he'll be the only starting QB in the NFC West that was drafted higher than the sixth round.

Since 1990, teams have drafted 97 QBs in rounds 5-7. Of those passers, 25 have played in 15 games or more, 14 have played in 30 games or more, and 10 have played in 50 games or more. In addition to the NFC West QBs mentioned above, other recognizable names on that list include Mark Brunell, Gus Frerotte, Jeff Blake, Tom Brady, Derek Anderson, and Matt Cassell. The serviceable backups on that list includes even more names, as you might expect.

Obviously, on average, there's a difference between a QB taken in the first round versus a QB taken in the sixth. Both halfs of the draft include players who never made it in the league, but fans don't hold it against a team when a sixth round pick doesn't work out the way they do when a first round pick washes out.

The point of this post isn't really Keith Null. It's hard to know exactly what kind of player the Rams have got in their newest QB without having seen him throw to NFL players while facing other NFL players. I do think Null, on paper and from this vantage point, looks to have a skill set that can make him a contributor, but so much of that will come down to coaching and coaxing that talent out of the player. The larger point I'm trying to make is don't write off a QB just because he's a sixth round pick.

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I like when a post does

research that I’m not willing to do myself. Good post. If Null can eventually be a backup QB in the NFL, the pick was worthwhile. If he becomes a legitimate NFL starter, the pick is a homerun.

One reason I think some of these picks end up panning out, is because no matter what measurable tools they were working with, they ended up being a starting QB at the college level. They found a way to get the job done well enough that the head coach kept handing them the reins. It’s hard to tell which guys will get the job done that well at the next level, because there are lots of immeasurables involved. For whatever reason, for every Peyton Manning there’s a Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington or Akili Smith. Taking a QB high is extremely risky – buy drafting one in the 6th round carries very little risk. If he makes the team you have a huge success story – if you end up cutting him, no one cares.

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by Toddius on May 14, 2009 10:00 AM CDT reply actions

This made me think.

2009 ProBowl QBs:

Kurt Warner – undrafted free agent – Northern Iowa
Drew Brees – 2nd round (32) – Purdue
Eli Manning – 1st round (1) – Mississippi
Peyton Manning -1st round (1) – Tennessee
Brett Favre – 2nd round (33) – Southern Mississippi
Jay Cutler – 1st round (11) – Vanderbilt
Kerry Collins – 1st round (5) – Penn State

2008 ProBowl QBs:

Brett Favre
Matt Hasselback – 6th round (187) – Boston College
Tony Romo – undrafted free agent – Eastern Illinois
Jeff Garcia – undrafted free agent – San Jose State
Tom Brady – 6th round (199) – MIchigan
Peyton Manning
Ben Roethlisberger – 1st round (11) – Miami University
Derek Anderson – 6th round (213) – Oregon State

2007 Pro Bowl QBs:

Peyton Manning
Carson Palmer – 1st round (1) – USC
Philip Rivers – 1st round (4) – North Carolina State
Vince Young – 1st round (3) – Texas
Drew Brees
Marc Bulger – 6th round (168) – West Virginia
Tony Romo

2006 Pro Bowl QBs:

Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Carson Palmer
Jake Delhomme – undrafted free agent – Louisiana-Lafayette
Matt Hasselbeck
Michael Vick – 1st round (1) – Virginia Tech

2005 ProBowl QBs:

Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Carson Palmer
Jake Delhomme
Matt Hasselbeck
Michael Vick

2004 ProBowl QBs:

Peyton Manning
Drew Brees
Tom Brady
Daunte Culpepper – 1st round (11) – Central Florida
Donovan McNabb – Round 1 (2) Syracuse
Michael Vick

Okay. I"m stopping here out of getting tired of looking this up and we’re seeing a lot of the same names.

Some things that stick out to me. First, I’m surprised to see that Donovan McNabb hasn’t made the Pro Bowl in 5 years. Second, I’m seeing a few 6th rounders end up in the Pro Bowl (Hasselbeck, Brady, Anderson, Bulger) so if you’re going to draft a QB in the late rounds, 6th looks like the place to do it. With only the 1st, 2nd, and 6th rounds being represented in the Pro Bowl for the last 5 years, I’d say Mr. Null should find that comforting.

What Mr. Null (and many Rams fans alike) will find a bit disheartening, is none of those 6th rounders (nor any of the QBs on this list) are from a school below D-1 AA (or the Football Championship Subdivision for those who have a clue as to why they changed the name). Only Warner and Romo came from schools that are outside D-1. That’s not good….for Mr. Null. For us and the team, who knows? Just because it hasn’t happened, doesn’t mean it’s never going to happen.

Anyway, take this information for what it is.

Secret elixir, huh? Well, I'm usually more of a bourbon guy but when push comes to shove I don't know what the hell's in that either.

by Tackle Box on May 14, 2009 11:00 AM CDT reply actions

I was going to say "Steve McNair"

But Alcorn State is also 1-AA.

"Attaway to stomp 'em. Stomp the piss out of 'em. Stomp 'em when they're down. Kick 'em and stomp 'em. Attaway to go boys. Pound that old Budweiser into you and go get them tomorrow." -- Joe Schultz

by taiko on May 14, 2009 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions

the difference between

1-AA and D II is, really, pretty negligible don’t you think?

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by Ryan Van Bibber on May 14, 2009 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions

I Would just Like to Add...

I know you all have heard this before, but it’s true. Teams who draft a quarterback in the 1st round are almost mandated to start that quarterback that same year because of the $$$ invested in a 1st round pick.

Whereas, a team that drafts a quarterback in a later round ,such as the 6th round, has both the time and the money (due to the relatively low contract bucks) to bring this player around slowly so he gains the much needed experience with the level of play in the NFL. This also gives the young quarterback time to learn the team’s offense, become familiar with his receivers, tight-ends and running backs. And, last but certainly not least, It allows him to be properly coached at the same time serve as an understudy to the starting quarterback gaining knowledge and a better understanding of the position of an NFL quarterback.

Go Rams!

"We can't run. We can't pass. We can't stop the run. We can't stop the pass. We can't kick. Other than that, we're just not a very good football team right now." --- Bruce Coslett, New York Jets Head Coach circa 1990s

by Nbr1RamFan on May 14, 2009 1:51 PM CDT reply actions