Will the Rams at least win the race for the first pick in the draft?

by VanRam on Dec 18, 2009 7:01 AM CST in 2009 regular season Comment 7 comments

With three games remaining in the season for the St. Louis Rams - and the outcome all but written - lots of talk has already shifted to which spot in the draft the Rams will wind up with. They're racing Tampa Bay, but a single win by either team could change the dynamics of the race to the bottom, er, top. Without wading into the confusing issue of who is on top right now, I thought we'd look at the rest of the schedule for both teams, since it's unlikely to be settled until the last week of the season wraps since the NFL uses opponent records to determine their strength of schedule tie breaker.

Using DVOA, let's take a look:

Tampa Bay
Overall: -33.7%, Offense: -20.1%, Defense: 14.0%

Seattle: Overall: -23.6%, Offense: -13.6%, Defense: 12.0%
New Orleans: Overall: 31.3%, Offense: 31.1%, Defense: -1.8%
Atlanta: Overall: -3.5%, Offense: 8.3%, Defense: 12.0%

Ouch, playing New Orleans twice isn't going to help the schedule Gods give the Rams the first pick, but we've also played the Colts. The Bucs' most winnable game would appear to be this week against Seattle. However, they are in Seattle for this game. Their next home game comes against the Falcons in the last week of the season. They could very well win that one, especially if the Falcons continue to suffer injuries. They played them pretty close in a 17-20 loss in week 12.

St. Louis
Overall: -40.7%, Offense: -21.0%, Defense: 19.9%

Houston: Overall: 13.9%, Offense: 16.7%, Defense: 5.8%
Arizona: Overall: 18.8%, Offense: 13.7%, Defense: -1.4%
San Francisco: Overall: 4.9%, Offense: -7.0%, Defense: -11.8%

That's actually a pretty tough schedule. Houston's eighth ranked offense should roll over the Rams' thirty-first ranked defense. Prospects against Arizona don't look bright given the results of the last time we played them, and this time we'll be in Arizona. Their best chance for another win would be to get really, really fired up against the Niners when they visit the Dome to close out the season.

All told, it seems increasingly likely that the Rams will get the first pick in the draft when everything's said and done come January.

0 recs | Comment 7 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Read More: St. Louis Rams, Atlanta Falcons

Comments

I could easily be wrong about this....

but from what I have read, I thought it was actually the other way around.

The tie breaker is based on strength of schedule, but I thought the team that played opponents with the worst win percentage and still had a 1-15 record would get the first pick. It seems like you are saying that the team with the 1-15 record that played the hardest schedule gets the first pick (maybe I am reading your article wrong).

The reason I thought this, is that I have seen it written several times that the fact the the Bucs play the Saints twice a year will really hurt them in their hunt for the #1 pick. Along the same lines of thought, our 6 games in our relatively weak division helps us out. I am not familiar with the rule so I can’t say for sure, but that is the impression I have gotten from reading articles over the last few days.

by Hetfield72 on Dec 18, 2009 8:37 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I agree

With the Bucs playing the Saints twice that actually helps us because losing to a team with a higher win percentage increases your strength of schedule. In this case you want a lower strength of schedule to get a higher draft pick.

by ksmooth on Dec 18, 2009 9:18 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

VR, you have this the wrong way around

That said, hopefully Rams get #2 pick so they are forced to take a QB and not a DT.

by Doughboy RAM on Dec 18, 2009 10:25 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I love how

we’re hoping rams will keep losing and TB wins a game. Honestly, at this point in the season, or the last 3 seasons, i don’t care. Just hope their high picks will improve the future

"Twin-headed infinite swirling vortex of grotesque suckitude known as Tony Clark and Eric Byrnes"

by sergey606 on Dec 18, 2009 11:09 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I Thought

the tie breaker would be strength of schedule. Which would be whoever had the easier schedule and lost would be rated number one, from what I understand we had the easier schedule and lost…….which means we stank more than the Bucs who had a harder schedule

I Want The Rams Back In LA....The More They Lose The More Of A Chance That It Will Happen....Sorry St Louis You Cant Keep A Team(Twice)...Rams Come Home....We'll Be Here For You When You Do

by JordansDad on Dec 18, 2009 12:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

we should have won more games

because of our sched, but we didnt

I Want The Rams Back In LA....The More They Lose The More Of A Chance That It Will Happen....Sorry St Louis You Cant Keep A Team(Twice)...Rams Come Home....We'll Be Here For You When You Do

by JordansDad on Dec 18, 2009 12:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Currently we're behind by 1-2%

But, including our future scheduled games, we are ahead by the same margin. We just can’t currently count our future opponents strength of schedule until we’ve played them, because obviously our opponents SoS will go down after playing us. This may make it closer then, than it is now. Of course TBs opponents SoS will have the same affect by playing them so that concept should be a push.

by dbcouver on Dec 18, 2009 7:05 PM CST reply actions 0 recs