Race to the bottom: Which teams are contending for the #1 pick in the draft?

by VanRam on Nov 7, 2009 7:15 AM CST in 2010 NFL Draft Comment 6 comments

by Carlos Osorio - AP

Which NFL team will have the first overall pick in the 2010 draft?

It's a Saturday morning and the St. Louis Rams are off this week. With a full day of college football, it's a great time to look at the second half of the NFL season and see who's in contention for the top draft picks. Lots more can happen in 8 more games, and 3k's mock draft generated just as much discussion for his final NFL results as the picks. So, let's take a look at the teams at the bottom of the league and see who could end up with their choice of talent come draft time.

Included here is a look at the average DVOA of each team's remaining opponents and rank of future schedule based on that number from Football Outsiders. We're also looking at individual games of note for each team.

0- and 1- win teams

Team	Future Sched	Rank
Cleveland	-10.5%	27
Tennessee	-1.0%	19
Kansas City	-4.9%	24
Detroit	5.4%	10
Tampa Bay	14.3%	3
St. Louis	1.6%	15

It's not unthinkable that Tampa Bay could be the NFL's second winless team in two seasons. They still have to play New Orleans twice. Their remaining home games are against Green Bay, New Orleans, NY Jets and the Falcons. The weakest team they have remaining on the schedule is Seattle, but they're playing them at Qwest Field. Cleveland has games left against Detroit, Kansas City and Oakland, which should keep them out of contention for the #1 pick. To me, the Titans seem to be getting their act together, so a schedule against average opponents, and a game against the Rams, could net them a few more wins. The Rams have some nice homes games yet to play, and I like their chances against a Seahawks team reeling from injuries. Detroit could struggle too, but you have to think a healthy Stafford and Calvin Johson could do some damage to the Browns. I think KC can squeak out another win or two as well, maybe at home against the Bills and at Oakland.

2-win teams

Team	Future Sched	Rank
Oakland	3.2%	13
Washington	15.5%	2
Seattle	-12.1%	30

Don't be surprised is Washington doesn't win any more games this season. They have two more games against the Cowboys and one more each with the Eagles and Giants. Those are just their division games. They also still have to play New Orleans, Denver and Atlanta. Their softest game is at Oakland, but I think the Raiders will likely win that one too. Speaking of the Raiders, they have games left against the Browns and the Chiefs to go with their Washington game. All three of those are toss ups. Seattle should pick up a home win against the Lions this week, and a home game against Tampa Bay should put them at 4 wins and out of top three pick range.

All of this could easily change. An injury here or there or even a fluky bounce could give one of these teams an extra win or two. Right now, I think you'll see Tampa Bay, Detroit, Washington and St. Louis in the top four picks of the draft, in that order. Don't be surprised if the coin flip has something to say about draft order though with so many teams struggling this year.

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Good analysis, Van...

You didn’t mention the 3 win teams, but I could see the bottom falling out in Jacksonville and/or Buffalo. The Jags were damn lucky to beat the Rams, and they don’t look anything close to a playoff contender. I’m not sure how the Bills have won 3 games.

To me, this is the toughest place to be for an NFL team. You obviously aren’t contending for the playoffs, but you are not really in rebuilding mode (which explains the Rams and most of those other 8 teams you listed). You are just kind of spinning your wheels week to week, hoping for a break. That’s why I have some hope for the Rams. I think when Spags gets the kind of players he wants, this team is going to jump from rebuilding to a playoff contender rather quickly, especially given their division.

by tbell61 on Nov 7, 2009 7:52 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

The Bills have won 3 games because of their defense.

and that goes a long way when the weather gets shitty in Buffalo.

Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.

by Tackle Box on Nov 7, 2009 1:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, and Buffalo had New England beat in the opener...

but went to extraordinary links to lose it in the last minute. And then there was that 6 to 3 loss to Cleveland. The Bills are a true Jeckyl and Hyde team.

by edpjr on Nov 7, 2009 4:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Three things that make me optimistic about the last half of our season

  Improved consistency, personnel-wise: At some point, we stop losing guys to season-ending injuries and solidify the O-line.
  Improved comfort level for coaching staff: As the staff gets more and more settled both with their respective jobs and the depth chart, I think we’ll see improved playcalling, i.e. Shurmur putting Avery downfield and relying on him to “make” a play
  Improved young players: Jason Smith and James Laurinaitis are only going to get better. They’re only two, but they make the point the strongest. Their best play is well, well ahead of them, and with each game, they get better. Good for us.

You don't seem to want to accept the fact you're dealing with an expert in guerrilla warfare, with a man who's the best, with guns, with knives, with his bare hands. A man who's been trained to ignore pain, ignore weather, to live off the land, to eat things that would make a billy goat puke. In *St. Louis* his job was to dispose of enemy personnel. To kill! Period! Win by attrition. Well, *Steven Jackson* was the best.

by 3k on Nov 7, 2009 11:00 AM CST reply actions 0 recs