Fun with numbers: Marc Bulger, week 10

by VanRam on Nov 18, 2009 9:44 AM CST in 2009 regular season Comment 11 comments

Geez, what do you guys want from me!?!?

Poor Marc Bulger. The embattled St. Louis Rams starting quarterback muscled through his best game of the year last week, nearly upsetting the undefeated New Orleans Saints. For some, that just wasn't enough.

Football Outsiders runs down the week's individual performances in their "Quick Reads" column, and for once Bulger's numbers stood out as above average. His total DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) was 124 yards, meaning he waas worth 124 more yards than a scrub off the bench. That was good enough for 7th best for week 10. His Pass DYAR was 120 yards, and his rush DYAR was 5 yards. That wasn't good enough for FO, who said:

If this was the best Marc Bulger had left, well, it's good, but not good enough. His conversion on fourth down to Brandon Gibson to extend the game with 1:21 left nearly ended it; he saw an open receiver and promptly hit him in the shoelaces. Converting four of the 12 third downs he faced wasn't particularly impressive, especially considering the good situations he was being placed in by the effective running of Steven Jackson -- on those third downs, he had an average of 7.2 yards to go. That leaves a fair amount of makable ones that weren't, especially considering that one of the plays he converted was his 29-yard touchdown pass to Donnie Avery on third-and-15.

Ouch. I can't pin the loss on Bulger, but I can't excuse him totall either. A game that close could have been decided by any one play, and ugly dropped balls from McMichael and Amendola get make great targets to point you inger at too. However, it is clear that Bulger's skill set is fading, reflected in diminished accuracy and some questionable decision making, i.e. the mid-field check downs on the two minute drill. Yes, I wonder what he might have been able to do with just another better-than-competent WR to throw to. More and more it looks like his best course for the future is a backup on a well-stocked team.

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Bulger as Backup

If Bulger has a well stocked team, with quality WR’s to throw to, his numbers would be stellar. Why do you feel he would be a backup?

by Knoxfan on Nov 18, 2009 9:57 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

He meant next year.

As in, he’s not a Ram anymore and the best situation for him to sign with would be a team who is “well stocked” and is looking for a backup. In this situation, he could step in for an injury (or poor performance) and succeed.

No team that has a solid roster and is looking for a QB to take them to the next level will want him and he’d be a fool to get himself into another situation where there aren’t any receivers or the O-line stinks.

Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.

by Tackle Box on Nov 18, 2009 11:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I Betcha-

I betcha my neighbor’s dog that Bulger will be the starter next year. He will get glowing reviews from the coaches, because the recieving core will be super, and because of that, Bulger will look super. After all, we have just completed 9 pre-season games, and things are looking up.

by Knoxfan on Nov 18, 2009 7:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

He very well may be.

but that doesn’t mean it’s the best situation for him to succeed in.

Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.

by Tackle Box on Nov 18, 2009 9:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

But it could be just enough that he can

I believe in 2010

by ram_rod on Nov 18, 2009 11:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Grrrr

That throw to Gibson wasn’t a “bad” throw; it was the result of Gibson and Bulger not being on the same page.

You don't seem to want to accept the fact you're dealing with an expert in guerrilla warfare, with a man who's the best, with guns, with knives, with his bare hands. A man who's been trained to ignore pain, ignore weather, to live off the land, to eat things that would make a billy goat puke. In *St. Louis* his job was to dispose of enemy personnel. To kill! Period! Win by attrition. Well, *Steven Jackson* was the best.

by 3k on Nov 18, 2009 10:18 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

ya, that's a pretty bad snippet across the board

In addition to the Gibson thing, of the 8 missed 3rd down conversions, 2 of them were in the last drive (where 3rd down isn’t 3RD DOWN), and 3 of them were 9+ yards (9,9,17). They failed to convert with 3, 4, and 1 yards to go, but converted from 2, 15(TD), 7, and 9. That doesn’t really look like a bad line to me. If he’d converted with 1, 2, 3, and 4 yards to go but not the 7, 9, or 15 would that make his performance better?

There’s no need to make arguments about the average performance (and implicitly disparage a TD pass on 3rd and long while doing so) when you can easily list the situations instead.

by brackenthebox on Nov 18, 2009 10:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs