Lions vs Rams, on paper
by n4ry4 on Oct 28, 2009 4:48 PM CDT
75 comments
Lions fan here...I just posted this on Pride of Detroit, in case anyone there is interested. I picked what I thought were the most relevant stats and tried to stay unbiased, but it's not perfect. Good luck on Sunday, but not too much...
...
Looking at this Sunday's game, I decided to cherry-pick thirty-six or so different overall stats from this season year-to-date to compare how the Lions and Rams stack up against each other.
For each stat, I decided to measure each team's "Advantage" by subtracting the other team's overall NFL rank from their own. For example, St. Louis' Passing Offense ranks 27th in the NFL in Yards-per-Game, while Detroit's Pass Defense ranks 30th...therefore: Advantage: St. Louis + 3
Stats after the jump...
*one correction: DET rush offense vs STL rush defense should be STL+2, not DET+2
Summary...
As their records and recent history would indicate, both teams are below average in most statistical categories, and near rock-bottom in a few.
St. Louis' biggest advantage might be on Special Teams (no surprise to Lions fans here). The Rams are punting the ball more than five yards farther per attempt than the Lions, and St. Louis' punt return YPA, kick return YPA, punt return defense, and kick return defense, each wins in a match-up against Detroit's punt return defense, kick return defense, punt return YPA, and kick return YPA, respectively.
Expect the Rams to consistently start with better field position and do a better job pinning the Lions back. The Lions do have the advantage in the field goal game though, with all-time leading Lions scorer Jason Hanson having made 90% (and we're all surprised it's not 100%, after he was 8-8 from 50+ yards last year), compared to only 66% this season for Rams kicker Josh Brown.
Measured in both Yards-per-Attempt and Yards-per-Game, St. Louis' overall offense is slightly better than Detroit's overall defense in every phase, and the same can be said for Detroit's offense against the Rams Defense.
The biggest advantage here would be held by the Rams and their rushing offense, being 10th in the league at 4.4 yards a carry, against a 28th-ranked Detroit rush D, allowing 4.6 YPC. Detroit is not, however, the pushovers that they were last year, especially with upgrades to the linebacking corps over the offseason, and having the bye week to heal up many of their injured defensive starters. Steven Jackson could have a very good game against Detroit's D, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Lions step up and match up well against the Rams offense.
Detroit's rushing offense (23rd YPA, 21st YPG) is about even with St Louis' rushing defense (21st YPA, 27th YPG)
In the passing game, both teams' offenses holds a slight--very slight--advantage over the other team's defense. I expect an above average passing game from both teams.
I think there are some key overall game stats other than yardage that favor the Lions:
While neither team has impressed overall, especially after their most recent games (Detroit being shut out 26-0 against Green Bay, and St Louis getting blown out 42-6 by Indy), Detroit comes out just a little bit ahead in the all-important measure of points. Detroit is scoring 17.2 points per game (23rd), while St Louis is allowing 30.1 (30th). The Rams are scoring only 8.6 PPG (NFL worst) while the Lions are allowing 31.3 (31st). It's a battle of ugly and uglier so far this season, so anything could happen here.
One other area where Detroit holds a significant advantage is third-down conversion. The Lions are converting 40% on third down (16th in the NFL), while the Rams are dead last, giving up 51.6%. The Lions will need to push this advantage and stay on the field longer, especially since special teams performances indicate that they'll be starting with a longer field. Of course, everything the Lions can achieve on offense depends heavily on the health of Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson and whether those two can get on the field and produce.
The biggest advantages for Detroit are, most obviously, the much-needed bye week to heal up from injuries and home-field advantage, but I think this will be a close game that either team can win. Winnable games for both teams in these rebuilding seasons are rare, and they'll obviously both look to capitalize on a game against a beatable opponent.
0 recs |
75 comments
Email
Print
Comments
Im so pumped!
First time seeing the Rams live in Detroit!!
by PCarn on Oct 28, 2009 6:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Interesting take.
Btw, something I noticed right away. Det pass offense (23) vs StL pass defense (21). You’re giving Det a (+2) when that should go to StL.
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
by Tackle Box on Oct 28, 2009 7:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
we have a bad YPc but
The Lions defense has only allowed 2 100+ yard running back this season (Bell and Forte)! Forte had 121 and a TD. That means that we held Adrian Peterson (92 and a TD), Clinton Portis (42 and 0 TD), Mendenhall (77 and a TD after his huge game the week before against San Diego (165 yards and 2 TDs), and Grant (44 and 0 TD) all to under 100 yards rushing
props to kdawg for the stats
point is the 2 RB that had over 100 allso had 2 of the best QB’s in the leage
why IMO jackson is better then AP… i still dont think he will do much better b/c queens have a better QB
we do good most the time on run we just let BIG plays some times i would not be shocked to see jackson have 2-3 20 yard runs maybe one even longer… but rest will be like 2 yarders
Just Remember matt... what would Daunte do??
by det32 on Oct 28, 2009 9:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree. Prediction: expect a few scary big gains by Steven Jackson breaking to the outside when one of our corners misses his contain responsibility.
Our D-Line and LB’s have been solid at containing RB’s up the middle (which sure is a nice break from last season—remember Chuck Darby and Paris Lenon getting bowled over every game), but it seems we always give up big run plays when a corner or safety take a bad angle and gets beat to the outside.
by n4ry4 on Oct 29, 2009 6:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well now we have Paris Lenon starting
hopefully he won’t get bowled over this game
Reserved-- been waiting 6 weeks to have this sig, I guess I can wait 1 more
by Carneros on Oct 29, 2009 7:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s playing OLB, with Laurinaitis in the middle, right? How’s Lenon doing? I wanted Laurinaitis in the draft, but we got Delmas, and the Rams took JL one pick after us. I thought Lenon was better OLB, but we put him in the middle in ’08 because we had a huge hole there, and it was a bad fit.
Really, our whole defense got owned last year, so I don’t know that we can pin it on one guy, but that was our weakness last year—we’d just get outmuscled and they’d run up the middle all game long. That, and the pass defense. And the coaching decisions. And the talent. And having to play five different quarterbacks. And the schemes. And the special teams.
by n4ry4 on Oct 29, 2009 8:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yea he's OLB and Lauranitis is MLB.
I haven’t been impressed with Lenon. He seems to miss a lot of tackles and at least a couple have been him trying to shoulder the guy and not wrap him up. He has 12 total tackles all year in 6 games and 7 of them came in one game. So he has not been very impressive and the downgrade from Witherspoon to him is a big one.
Reserved-- been waiting 6 weeks to have this sig, I guess I can wait 1 more
by Carneros on Oct 29, 2009 9:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really think
Jackson will be the deciding factor because this is are best shot of winning this year. Run him and tell him hold onto the ball and i think we will be fine resting are defense and taking out time. Plus your offensive line is a weak spot and i think it’ll give are d line a chance to show that they can play football. CJ Ah You i believe will turn heads on sunday just an opinion though.
by keeperskillz24 on Oct 28, 2009 10:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
yea it is but so is you thinking you Dline wont have a prob..
Just Remember matt... what would Daunte do??
by det32 on Oct 28, 2009 11:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is hilarious
both group of fans seriously think their team can beat each others. I am going to simplify this for all to see.
Rams offense vs Det Def.- advantage Steven Jackson. Although you guys have Ernie Simms and J Peterson, SJ will tread through the Def, and reach pay dirt for the first time this year.
Det. Off vs. Rams Def. – advantage Stl. DEF. The Bermuda triangle of James L and OJ Otagwe, and J. Butler will prevail. UNLESS Calvin Johnson plays, no one on the Rams can stop him and the Rams will have to committ a safety to support the entire game. (please no one post that Bartell can match up with Calvin) If he plays then this portion is up in the air.
Overall, I see the Rams winning this game, but with our luck who knows! For the first time in a while I see both these ball clubs going in the right direction. Although, i hate the rebuilding phases, I do like what they lead to.
by CaliRamMan on Oct 29, 2009 1:00 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Rams 0-7 and outscored 210 to 53 so far are moving in the RIGHT direction????
by edpjr on Oct 29, 2009 1:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok Edpjr
I’m tired of your weightless, dumb comments. You are like a horse with bliners, you can’t see anything but what is in front of you. I bet you were one of those idiots that bought into the variable home loans that helped ruin the housing market. Every week we have to sift through your pessimistic comments. Its always Bitch, Bitch, Bitch. I haven’t said anything yet, out of respect to the site, but I feel I have to educate you here.
By moving in the right direction, I am referring to the Rams getting rid of the Administrative staff that we had running our front office (thats a GM, Head of player development, etc). Then they went in and got rid of all the coaches, the crappy Scott Linehan crew was a waste and was unable to develop anything. The guy sucked in NO, and he sucked in Stl, now he is gone. After that they go and eliminate 40% of the roster. Players that just were no good, players that didn’t fit the future plans, players that were leeches on the pay roll, players that were too old, you get the point.
Now the problem is that when you get rid of this many players you have to replace them. The issue is that your talent level takes an immediate dip and if you have any injuries that talent level of replacements gets that much worse. i hate the fact that we are in this postion, but it is done, the move has been made. Committment to the future, sacrafice for now.
So both clubs have revamped the Front office, Coaching, and Rosters in hopes to better themselves for the future. I consider that moving in the right direction. I do not look at our record and then whine that we suck. When you make this drastic of a change it has to be expected. You know for every action there is a reaction. Get a clue meat!
by CaliRamMan on Oct 29, 2009 8:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK Cali
First, I don’t appreciate being lectured by an insulting punk like you. Next, I’ll continue to state my opinions about the Rams, negative or not, regardless of whether or not it steams your clams. I could giva sh*t what you think or care. Lastly, don’t ever presume to educate me, you’re not remotely qualified. That’s pretty weak justification provided for how “the Rams are moving in the right direction.” We’ve still got the slug Barron at LT. Nobody can even make the decision to put our star draft pick in his natural position. We just gave away Will Witherspoon. And, our play calling, especially on offense, is laughable. Buzz off!
by edpjr on Oct 29, 2009 9:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've said my peace
If you can’t comprehend what was just laid out for you, I don’t know if I can explain things any more clear for you. If you want to continue to be a deuche then go right ahead. Just know that others laugh at your stupidity with each rant about how much you hate your team. Try to support your team pal or just go become a saints fan.
by CaliRamMan on Oct 30, 2009 1:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I feel for you man.
We have a jackass just like this over on our blog. Our guy is so jaded he should be green and living deep in a cave. All he does is post negative after negative after negative after… Well you get the idea. Evidently the “There’s always one” rule holds true in sports blogs as well as families.
by Lionsrmycrack on Oct 30, 2009 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
One...?
We’re only supposed to have one in my family? Is that what the rule is???
Lived in LA during the Rams and Raiders days. Now based in NorCal, I am still a die hard Rams fan and Raiders season ticket holder.
by CoachConnors on Oct 30, 2009 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
fyi Lions nematode, TST is split about 50/50
among fans who are angry we’re 5-39 over the last three seasons and those who continually find excuses for why we’re getting better but not winning. But you’ve got your own problems, the Lions may be one of the few teams that’s sorrier than the Rams. I guess we’ll find out Sunday. And, while the Rams have a strong heritage of winning over the last 40+ years, the Lions are perennial losers. At least we’ve made it to 3 Superbowls and own a Championship. When was the last time Detroit made it? Answer: never!
by edpjr on Oct 30, 2009 6:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
1953 if i recall
the lions have a rich history of winning too…but its just that …. history. we haven’t really seen it since the 50’s
by londonlion on Oct 30, 2009 6:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
fyi my Rams hypnotoad, you haven't poled us all
Find the Futurama references and cross check ‘em with the double entendre typos! It’s SJax vs BSanders in the Greatest Game that never was! Who is history’s biggest coulda been??
Lived in LA during the Rams and Raiders days. Now based in NorCal, I am still a die hard Rams fan and Raiders season ticket holder.
by CoachConnors on Oct 30, 2009 6:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
if i understand what you are saying
sanders was 10 times the back jackson is
Just Remember matt... what would Daunte do??
by det32 on Oct 30, 2009 7:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and that makes
Faulk 10 times the back Sanders was. By Joe, you’ve hit it right on the head.
Lived in LA during the Rams and Raiders days. Now based in NorCal, I am still a die hard Rams fan and Raiders season ticket holder.
by CoachConnors on Oct 30, 2009 7:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol faulk was good
he was my favret none lion but sanders is the best back to play the game it is a shame it lived so sort
just for the rcored i not takeing any thing away from faulk or jackson…bouth are grate back and if jackson had a good line he would be the best back (curentley playing) but until that happons people will keep thinking AP is
Just Remember matt... what would Daunte do??
by det32 on Oct 30, 2009 11:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
as far as jackson goes i dont think he will have as good of a game as you think
The Lions defense has only allowed 2 100+ yard running back this season (Bell and Forte)! Forte had 121 and a TD. That means that we held Adrian Peterson (92 and a TD), Clinton Portis (42 and 0 TD), Mendenhall (77 and a TD after his huge game the week before against San Diego (165 yards and 2 TDs), and Grant (44 and 0 TD) all to under 100 yards rushing
props to kdawg for the statspoint is the 2 RB that had over 100 allso had 2 of the best QB’s in the leage
why IMO jackson is better then AP… i still dont think he will do much better b/c queens have a better QB
we do good most the time on run we just let BIG plays some times i would not be shocked to see jackson have 2-3 20 yard runs maybe one even longer… but rest will be like 2 yarders
and are off has the advantage over your D even with out CJ
this is a farley even match up just the lions have a much biger advantage… its in DET we just got off a bye week
Just Remember matt... what would Daunte do??
by det32 on Oct 29, 2009 9:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"this is a farley even match up just the lions have a much biger advantage"
huh?
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
by Tackle Box on Oct 29, 2009 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha
really this match up should just be dead nuts even. I really don’t think any team has a “advantage” right now maybe the lions one win but really? If the rams win this game i wont get my legs broken by the bookie. how can you not bet against those odds last week?
by keeperskillz24 on Oct 29, 2009 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ment for talent yall have better RB but we have better WR
we allso have better LB but other then that its about the same
Just Remember matt... what would Daunte do??
by det32 on Oct 29, 2009 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes sj may break out one or two
but our d has contained most every top rb in the league to under 100yds. i am more worried about bulger & avery than i am about sj to be honest. we have contained the run well, minus about five or six long gashes…qb’s have lit us up though. i can’t recall, have you played minn yet? just to compare d’s…how did you contain their offense?
by londonlion on Oct 30, 2009 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
SUPER BOWL THIS SUNDAY...
this is it, Rams… the best shot to win a game in 2009. Make it a good game, fellas! GO RAMS!
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Oct 29, 2009 3:11 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
They really should give it Superbowl type coverage
Put it on national TV, have companies send in funny commercials, have a red carpet in the pregame and get a Justin Timberlake halftime show (oh, wait).
Reserved-- been waiting 6 weeks to have this sig, I guess I can wait 1 more
by Carneros on Oct 29, 2009 7:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If companies sent in funny commercials
then it really wouldn’t be like the SuperBowl, would it?
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
by Tackle Box on Oct 29, 2009 7:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You mean if the commercials were actually funny?
Reserved-- been waiting 6 weeks to have this sig, I guess I can wait 1 more
by Carneros on Oct 29, 2009 7:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah...
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
by Tackle Box on Oct 29, 2009 7:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
they should
just put on commercials for that show the biggest loser all breaks, because pretty much thats what this game is about.
by keeperskillz24 on Oct 29, 2009 11:25 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Now we're thinking
Here’s a couple 3k ways to make the game more interesting:
Release the Beast: Give a big horn sheep to Schwartz and a lion to Spagnuolo. They can release their opposition’s mascots onto the field once per half, but if it doesn’t result in at least one injury, the coach who “released his beast” will be charged with a time out.
Pucker Sunch: Both teams are allowed to use one player from their cities’ hockey teams (Red Wings & Blues) on either side of the ball on any play. This player cannot be penalized for unsportmanlike conduct, but he’s not allowed to wear a helmet.
Brown Bag Special: (This is funny to me, because Southern women are better looking than women from anywhere else. You know this is truth.) Each team is allowed to select the most heinous-looking woman from within their team’s city limits; she will be escorted to the bench for kickoff with a brown bag over her head. At the end of either half, the coach may use her “Bench Wench” instead of using a timeout to ice the kicker.
Pouting Passion: Fans of both teams must have their backs to the field for the whole game to remind their franchises that they’re tired of losing. Seriously. Get it together.
Your uncle molests collies.
by 3k on Oct 29, 2009 11:56 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I like women
from the South, but I have to say California has something in the water that produces beautiful thangs all over the place. If you have been to CA you will know what I’m talking about.
by CaliRamMan on Oct 29, 2009 8:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Texas ain't half bad either.
Neither is Chicago.
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
by Tackle Box on Oct 30, 2009 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Its Official
I’m Awarding the Post of The Week to 3K for "Now We’re Thinking ".
He’s obviously not talking about me with this “Thinking” thing, but I’m jumping on the 3K bandwagon for that post anyway. Well done.
And Special Recognition, which is miles away better than Honorable Mention, in the category of Truth in Posting goes to CaliRamMan for layin’ it down about California Girls.
Swear to my G, I have been in half the states and both bordering countries and he’s absolutely right. I actually came back here on purpose.
Lived in LA during the Rams and Raiders days. Now based in NorCal, I am still a die hard Rams fan and Raiders season ticket holder.
by CoachConnors on Oct 30, 2009 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
lmao
i think you nailed it, sadly i never want to see any of those things happen espically #3 or 4 but at least it’d distract us from probably the worst game of football anyone’s seen in their lifetime. (and im sure everyone has seen a couple)
by keeperskillz24 on Oct 29, 2009 12:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
CJ is back!!!!!!!
http://freep.com/article/20091029/SPORTS01/91029031/1049/SPORTS01/Lions-WR-Johnson-practices-today
Just Remember matt... what would Daunte do??
by det32 on Oct 29, 2009 1:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
uh oh
im shaking in my boots. He’ll help you guys but really what it comes down too is who ever beats their self with stupid decisions during the game. Us ram fans are accustom to these follies during a game the occasional where’d the ball go? Also trying to kick a live ball, and hey this is a good spot to let go of the ball (opponents red zone). I’m not sure what you do in Detroit but id expect the spectacle we are about to see sunday will be a greatest hits video in nfl films for follies.
by keeperskillz24 on Oct 29, 2009 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the lions tend to do really well in the 1st 1/2 like i sadi in another post we wold be 4-2 if the game was over at the 1/2 but we suck in the 2nd 1/2 donno why
Just Remember matt... what would Daunte do??
by det32 on Oct 29, 2009 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just Remember matt... what would Daunte do??
by det32 on Oct 29, 2009 3:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
that thing above me
is that a generic transformer something about him looks odd? or is it the transformer version of steven jackson?
by keeperskillz24 on Oct 29, 2009 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
it cj man u never heard him called Megatron???
Just Remember matt... what would Daunte do??
by det32 on Oct 29, 2009 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
but yea i think tht one might be from the comic books all the other ones only had a head shot so i grabed this one
Just Remember matt... what would Daunte do??
by det32 on Oct 29, 2009 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
actually
he is a freakishly tall strong and fast athlete i think i have heard him called megatron before it just didnt come to mind right away. wouldn’t surprise me if he was a robot.
by keeperskillz24 on Oct 29, 2009 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Evaluating A Defense
The old wise coaches I have worked with (maybe I will become one, one day) used to tell me the most important stat to look at, when evaluating a Defense, was Avg Yards Per Rushing Play.
The best is 3.0, the worst 5.2.
Rams are 18th at 4.3, not insanely bad. Lions are 26th with 4.6.
I know .3 it seems like a very small difference but it’s nice to know the Rams are solidly middle class in the most important defensive stat you can use.
Lived in LA during the Rams and Raiders days. Now based in NorCal, I am still a die hard Rams fan and Raiders season ticket holder.
by CoachConnors on Oct 29, 2009 8:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
are dline as been so plaged by injers that we where playing gards there
now that there back it should be less and like i said befor only 2 rushers over 100 yards so dont take that 4.6 lightley
Just Remember matt... what would Daunte do??
by det32 on Oct 29, 2009 8:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
now compare the rb's that make up those stats
for us:
adrian peterson ~ vikings
matt forte ~ bears
clinton portis ~ skins
ryan grant ~ packers
mike bell ~ saints
rashard mendenhall ~ steelers
4/6 are power run teams w/ solid if not top tier backs. that .3 becomes neglegent when you take into account the backs & what the offenses we have played (other than the skins really)
by londonlion on Oct 30, 2009 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the rams have faced the best three backs on that list
peterson, portis, and grant. they have also faced:
julius jones: who is as good as matt forte
maurice jones drew: who is better than mike bell
joseph addai: who is as good as rashard mendenhall
glen coffee: probably the worst of the bunch, but does it matter when you have those other guys on the list?
so i’m not really sure what point you’re trying to make with that comment.
jd is legend for Cardinals' closer 2010!!
by stlcardinalsfang on Oct 30, 2009 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i wasn't sure what backs you had faced
so i was trying to add value/depth to looking at the stat…if the rams had faced “lesser” run based offenses (what i mean is teams less likley to pound the ground game without a big 30 carry/game kind of back) would say that the .3yrd differential would be neglegent. that doesn’t seem to be the case.
by londonlion on Oct 30, 2009 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
no, it's not the case
the rams’ run defense has been pretty decent this year. the lions will really have to work at the ground game if they want to succeed. the run defense could let up in the second half if you continue pounding the ball, but most teams (sans jacksonville) have proven that they don’t want to do that.
jd is legend for Cardinals' closer 2010!!
by stlcardinalsfang on Oct 30, 2009 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's just it - you read the such a small but emcompassing stat "as is", without explanation
The whole value of a team’s average yards, per play, for only rushing, across every quarter of every game and opponenet…..
It is such a valuable stat because it stands on it’s own. It’s granular and doesn’t play favorites. Bad plays, good games, substitute players….long plays here, short stops there…even dome or rain……it’s allll taken into consideration without prejudice, and in the end you are what you are.
Attempts to say “Yeah but…” are hollow. It’s the one that doesn’t need qualifiers or really much context.
Lived in LA during the Rams and Raiders days. Now based in NorCal, I am still a die hard Rams fan and Raiders season ticket holder.
by CoachConnors on Oct 30, 2009 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you can't tell me that
giving up say 5.6/carry to miami (when they are expected to do so) is worse than say 5.2 to the bucs is comparing apples to apples. if a team is facing a power run attack, the stat can be skewed. if that was the case, i’d be more upset in giving up 5.2 vs the bucs than the 5.6 vs the phins. case in point…arizona has the number 1 run defense in the league because teams would rather pass on them, yet their yrd/carry stat is very solid, it doen’t mean they are the best vs the run. you have to include context to validate the stat. otherwise, stats can tell any kind of story you like. i wasn’t trying a yeah but…as i said above, i was trying to add value to a raw stat.
by londonlion on Oct 30, 2009 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a season long stat
One bad game doesn’t matter that much.
One good game doesn’t either.
Lived in LA during the Rams and Raiders days. Now based in NorCal, I am still a die hard Rams fan and Raiders season ticket holder.
by CoachConnors on Oct 30, 2009 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Per Carry -- games are not apples to each other
Now we’re going way too far into this but you’re trying to muddy the waters by comparing that game to this game.
A game with Miami is not equal to a game with Tampa, because this is based per rush carry, and those two teams probably didn’t both run the same exact number of times, which would have had to been your season game average…..
See why this stat can’t have a bunch of “Yeah But’” attached to it?
It’s value is on its own, if you understand exactly what it is.
Miami and Tampa contributed different amounts to the final number.
I probably shouldn’t have brought it up, 3K’s going to ban me
Lived in LA during the Rams and Raiders days. Now based in NorCal, I am still a die hard Rams fan and Raiders season ticket holder.
by CoachConnors on Oct 30, 2009 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
BANNED!
No, I think there is value to the rush/carry stat as it refers to an overall team’s rushing ability as long as you do recognize the outliers. As you said, each game is independent, and really each play is independent, but you have to have some kind of decent sample size. So I pretty much agree with you. Still, BANNED FOR LIFE!
Your uncle molests collies.
by 3k on Oct 30, 2009 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
D
We’re on what the D is yeilding, not what the rush ability is.
But thanks for playing!!
Lived in LA during the Rams and Raiders days. Now based in NorCal, I am still a die hard Rams fan and Raiders season ticket holder.
by CoachConnors on Oct 30, 2009 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well sweet sassy molassy
I kinda missed the mark on that one…
Your uncle molests collies.
by 3k on Oct 30, 2009 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whether a particular team likes to run more or pass more is filtered
when you look across the whole season on an average yards per rush play basis.
Getting behind early in games and garbage time is also filtered to a great extent. If one great guy had a couple of long runs gets filtered on the season per play.
And in fact, statistcally speaking, the more names you add to the list of “We faced these guys” actually makes ther final number more and more smooth of an average. And less and less arguable.
Lived in LA during the Rams and Raiders days. Now based in NorCal, I am still a die hard Rams fan and Raiders season ticket holder.
by CoachConnors on Oct 30, 2009 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i see the point
and good example…forte was held to about 30yds…but busted 2 big ones out.
my point was merely i would rather give up 5.6 to a miami “heavy dose of rush” than 5.2 to the bucs irregardless of the number of attempts. just like i was ok w/ Brees tossing 350+ against us, but wasn’t happy that Bell also ran for 140. i’m ok giving/losing to a teams strength, but when a part of the game isn’t their strength & still put up huge numbers…thats not so cool.
i am confident that our run d can hold jackson to under 100. we did so vs peterson & at the same time held favre to 200. i am more worried about bulger & avery connecting as avery can zig & zag with the best of them and our secondary doesn’t tackle well. if sjack can get to the secondary he will bust some wide open.
smith, on our side will have a challenge…especially if the oline can’t open holes but he’s mulitdimensional & will get some catches out of the backfield. what i am excited about is stafford & calvin reuniting. if they are both back, johnson will require safety help over the top & that will open up the rest of the offense. we moved the ball very effectively vs minn & chi…albeit only in the first half…but so far we are only a first half team.
i am very excited for this game…it will show the true character of each team & where they really stand. is either team really on the up & up…or are they destined to ride it out in the cellar?
by londonlion on Oct 30, 2009 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
in all honesty, i think our 'backs are very similar the way you are talking
you say he’s multidimensional, well so is jackson. he has actually been the leading pass catcher for the rams on some days this season, because he is so good as plowing people and making them miss once he is out in the open field. if bulger can make the play, the rams run the screen VERY well.
as for jackson hitting some open holes, that will be the case. he has made most of his yardage this year after contact, and will break through arm tackles to get to that second level. your line and linebacker could make good plays, but you still could see jackson break into that third level. and if he does, look out.
we also moved the ball very well against the vikings (400+ yards) but failed to convert those into points thanks to 3 turnovers inside the ten yard line. like i said, our backs seem very similar in the way they rack up yardage, but steven jackson is simply more talented.
jd is legend for Cardinals' closer 2010!!
by stlcardinalsfang on Oct 30, 2009 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed that sjack is more talented
i actually like him more than ap. the big question i have is how well is your pass attack going to be? i have a good idea what we’re going to get from sjack…not so much from bulger & your wr’s.
by londonlion on Oct 30, 2009 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that said
give ksmith another couple years & i think he becomes one of the most complete backs in the league, especially if the rest of the offense picks up its play. smith will never run over guys like sjack, but i think he cuts better…he is more of a vision/scat back than a power back. sjack has speed & cuts well for a power back…but his strength is breaking that first tackle.
by londonlion on Oct 30, 2009 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed.
jackson is a power back that can move like a wide receiver, which is what makes him so good. i’m sure that the speed guys cut better than him, but there’s not many of those. jackson is able to combine all the elements to become arguably the most complete running back in the league.
i’m sure smith will be a decent player at this level, but he’s not quite there yet. as a speed guy though, he is always going to need that solid o-line behind him to make holes, something jackson doesn’t need.
jd is legend for Cardinals' closer 2010!!
by stlcardinalsfang on Oct 30, 2009 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
exactly
and that’s been the downfall of our team all year. the running game as been amazing at time, but the passing game has suffered all year, especially while bulger was hurt. the day we racked up all those yards against the vikings, the passing game was finally decent (as well at jackson, obviously), and the offense was able to move the ball very well.
it all comes down to the play of the rams offensive line. steven jackson can overcome poor play from the line, marc bulger and our receivers can not. if the line plays like crap, bulger and the rams passing game will to and we will probably lose the game. but if the line plays decently, i still believe bulger is one of the most accurate QBs in the league. if he gets time in the pocket and one of our receivers gets open, he will get it there 9 time out of 10. but if the line plays like crap and he’s scrambled out of the pocket or our receivers aren’t getting open, it could be a long day.
jd is legend for Cardinals' closer 2010!!
by stlcardinalsfang on Oct 30, 2009 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am too
I’m more excited about this game than most guys here, I think. I understand at this stage we probably need to play the Lions and the Lions need to play us.
Johnson has sticky hands, I love that in a WR. I suffer through watching WR’s for the Raiders in real life that are neither the best catchers nor the fatsest guys on the field (although they were drafted to be). I think Avery is much more valuable than Heyward-Bey at this point.
Not to take us complletely off track but last weekend I watched Heyward-Bey go on a deep route, at least 35 yards deep, and he had a CB right there on his hip every step of the way. One guy completely covered him up.
Now, if you drafted a guy wtih maybe average hands because he ran 4.3’s in college, and he can’t flat burn his way loose on a 35 yard skinny post in the NFL….then you have yourself a completely wasted draft pick.
Give he hands every day and I’ll teach him how to set up a CB and get 3 feet of seperation. Calvin’s sticky hands be very valuable for you guys, for a long time. Avery, I need to see more on the hands. Running, yes he’s slippery, but I am not convinced his hands are where they need to be, yet.
Lived in LA during the Rams and Raiders days. Now based in NorCal, I am still a die hard Rams fan and Raiders season ticket holder.
by CoachConnors on Oct 30, 2009 12:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Should say "Give ME hands every day…"
Lived in LA during the Rams and Raiders days. Now based in NorCal, I am still a die hard Rams fan and Raiders season ticket holder.
by CoachConnors on Oct 30, 2009 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
there 40yrd speed & there is game speed
two totally different things!
i’d take two NYG S Smith’s over dhb any day. route running & hands are crucial. when/if you can add speed & jump to that…that is when you become elite. thankfully cj has all the above in spades. problem is, can we get the protection to get him the ball downfield? staff has the arm…but needs the 3-5 count to get it downfield. cj…6’5, 4.3 speed, runs routes like he’s 5’10 and can come down with the ball in triple coverage…plus a 40+ vert.
by londonlion on Oct 30, 2009 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
someone posted this on the lions page its the trophy the winer of the game will get
Just Remember matt... what would Daunte do??
by det32 on Oct 30, 2009 2:10 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
