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Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger and the QB bounce back

Browsing around the interweb I came across this article at Philly.com featuring a quote from Kurt Warner saying that he knew Eagles QB Donovan McNabb would bounce back to form. Whether you agree with Warner's assessment or not, Kurt's a guy who would know all about bouncing back. When the Rams unceremoniously parted ways with the QB that led them to their last Super Bowl title, Warner looked like he was finished. Obviously he wasn't. Anyway, this got me thinking, can Marc Bulger, a two-time Pro Bowl QB, bounce back like the Rams need him to?

I'd like to think the answer is yes. Let's go back to Warner for a moment to make a point. During his last great season with the Rams, 2001, Warner was sacked 38 times, and the Rams had one of the highest sack totals in the league that season. Prior to 2001, Warner was sacked 49 times in 27 games (he missed 5 games, remember in 2000 with a broken hand). Three seasons, 87 sacks; that's a lot of abuse for a QB to endure. And, as you can see from his stats, he wasn't the same the QB when he started the 2002 season, throwing 7 INTs and a lone TD in three games to start the season before a broken finger further derailed his year. Six fumbles into the first game of the 2003 season, Warner's time with the Rams effectively ended and he was released in June 2004. He looked like he was finished, even after playing well to start the 2005 season with the Cardinals. One Matt Leinart underage hot tub incident and a list of other antics and Warner was back to his old self.

So what about Bulger? During his career season in 2006, he was sacked a whopping 49 times, second most of any QB in the league that season...except for John Kitna of the Lions. (Man, the Rams and the Lions have been dangerously close comparisons lately). In the three seasons prior to that, Bulger was sacked 104 times - holy s#*t! - in just 37 games (remember he only played 8 games in 2005). In the last two seasons, Bulger's been sacked 75 times. How do expect a QB to make plays under those circumstances? You can't.

Now, Bulger was hardly an innocent bystander in the Rams failure this season, but the team deserves much of the blame for not adequately addressing glaring problems on its O-line...to say nothing of embracing an offensive philosophy that overlooked sacks for six seasons with Martz as head coach.

So can Bulger recover? Yes, eventually, but it would be foolish to think he can recapture his previous form for the 2009 season. He can, however, play well enough in an offensive system featuring a power running game at its core to be a functional quarterback...if the Rams upgrade the offensive line as promised. Of course, having a competent backup who can start in Bulger's stead without missing a beat would help tremendously too, but without holes on the line filled it doesn't matter if they reanimate Joe Montana (oh, he's still alive?). 

In actuallity, as a Rams fan with fond memories of Kurt Warner, I overlooked a player who is probably a better comparison for Bulger: Chad Pennington. Though he didn't endure as much of his damage from sacks as Bulger, he bounced back well this season with a solid line in front of him and a running game.

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Comments

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In both Warner’s and Pennington’s case, significant periods of rest and rehabilitation were required for them to bounce back to form. They were each out of action for so long, in fact, that the careers of both players was called into question.

Honestly, Bulger’s path to a bounceback has to include about a year of not starting. And he would still have to work hard during that year to get his body and mind back into shape.

"Attaway to stomp 'em. Stomp the piss out of 'em. Stomp 'em when they're down. Kick 'em and stomp 'em. Attaway to go boys. Pound that old Budweiser into you and go get them tomorrow." -- Joe Schultz

by taiko on Jan 13, 2009 2:48 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Damn - beat me to my rehab point bya minute (below)

Outfielders For Sale! This weeks special...GMJ - see Tony for details!

by gorams77 on Jan 13, 2009 2:50 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

that's why we need to get

a competent young QB via free agency, so they can compete, push Bulger and step in if he gets hurt, a la Bulger for Warner. The draft is an option, but the level of QB the Rams are going to get in the draft, i.e. a guy in second round or later, isn’t the kind of guy that, typically, is going to be able to step in and fill-in for an injured Bulger w/out losing too much in translation.

we’re stuck with Bulger, like it or not. the best option is a decent guy (Leftwich?) via free agency.

by VanRam on Jan 13, 2009 4:11 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Leftwich

is ok if we are looking for a security blanket for Bulger for next season but I dont think he is a viable option for a long term fix. To get Leftwich is to assume that we won’t be adressing the QB situation at all in the draft (Green still under contract) and I don’t think that is wise unless the Rams are targeting some QBs in the 2010 draft – but then they will need to be starting right out the gates assuming Bulger will be gone.

Of course, the stars can align and Bulger could kick ass next year (which as a Rams fan I would love and happily eat my crow) – I just dont see it.

Outfielders For Sale! This weeks special...GMJ - see Tony for details!

by gorams77 on Jan 13, 2009 4:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I can't believe I'm about to say this name.

Rex Grossman?

Yeesh. But, I know he’s fuming over how the Bears lied to him this past offseason, so he might have something to prove. Honestly, I don’t really like him, but I wouldn’t mind a 1year contract (I’m pretty sure he’d sign a 1 year deal with a legit shot to start since the Bears screwed him last year) with a true qb competition in preseason.

I can definitely think of worse options. And frankly, I don’t think he ever got a fair shot because of all the Captain Neckbeard fanboys in Chicago. His biggest problem (and they’re substantial) is that he’s really short and can’t evade pressure. But other than that, he’s got a big arm and brings some moxy to the table.

A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!

by Tackle Box on Jan 13, 2009 10:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The other trouble with Grossman

He throws bushels and bushels of interceptions, and it isn’t just his height. He appears to often be on different pages from his receivers. And I don’t know if it’s not knowing the playbook, or reading defenses incorrectly (i.e. Rex makes one read, “hot” receiver makes another, and result is incomplete or pick), but it’s not something that he’s ever shown a capacity to improve on.

This is a standard NFL quarterback skill that he just doesn’t appear to have. But, I’ll agree with you, he has an arm.

"Attaway to stomp 'em. Stomp the piss out of 'em. Stomp 'em when they're down. Kick 'em and stomp 'em. Attaway to go boys. Pound that old Budweiser into you and go get them tomorrow." -- Joe Schultz

by taiko on Jan 13, 2009 10:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think a lot of his "reads" mistakes

can be attributed to his height. He can’t really see over the lineman and has to look though the gaps. He also has a bit of a “gunslinger” mentality which can get him in trouble from time to time.

A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!

by Tackle Box on Jan 14, 2009 6:39 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You could do worse than Grossman, IMO

He’s not great, but he has a bigger upside than Green, I think.

by tbell61 on Jan 14, 2009 9:26 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

How could he have more downside?

Jay Zygmunt, now that you have fired yourself, please have yourself hired by Seattle. Thanks.

by 3k on Jan 14, 2009 10:16 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

My Take...

The one thing in common with both the Pennington and Warner comparisons is that they both had the “change of scenery.”

To make my stance known, I am on the anti-Bulger bandwagon. Most all career revivals that you see come on deifferent teams. Could be a multitude of reasons outside of the coaching staff and philosophies but I think one of them is that both the fanbases/front office and the player get tired of each other and lose the will to deal with each other.

Bulger, IMO, is a left over result of Martz that the team is still feeling. I hate Martz (I recognize that he was one of the best and worst things to ever happen to the Rams but the worst is still fresher in my mind) and his schemes allowed our QBs to get killed. There is no surprise that Kitna v2006 is ranked up there with Martz as the OC. Couple Martz with the front office drafting and FA signings on the OL and you have the 2009 season.

I think that he maybe able to revive in the right scheme with the right OC in the right city – I am of the opinion that St Louis is not the place.

One more point re Warner – he had his full revival after his body was – for all intensive purposes – able to recover from the beating. He sat behing Bulger his last yr than split with both Manning and Leinart before taking over FT duties…

 

Outfielders For Sale! This weeks special...GMJ - see Tony for details!

by gorams77 on Jan 13, 2009 2:49 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I think

that Bulger is an attractive backup option at this point. Of course, someone has to start at QB in StL. Who should/would that be if Bulger were to go? The QB we need isn’t on the current roster.

by Toddius on Jan 13, 2009 4:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think we get a QB in the draft...

I’ve made the case for taking a hard look at drafting a QB with our number two pick in the past know that we need one. I agree with VanRam’s comment that they, unfortunately, wonn’t get rid of Bulger until after next year due to his contract (I would love if someone would trade for him).

If Bradford and Stafford both come out (there is the potential at Sanchez as well) and the and Det takes one of them then I truly think the Rams need to consider taking the other unless
A) They feel that there is a "better" get for them at QB next year.
B) They have another QB targeted that is high enough on Devaneys drafnik list that he feels is a good pick in Rd 2-4 and feels very strongly about ability to start in the NFL (seeings how any QB drafted will be behind Bulger for 09). Davis from Ball State, etc
-or-
C) Someone really wants to trade up to get one of them and we can generate more picks to help build (Draft is very heavy with OL and LB with solid Secondary prospects as well).

Outfielders For Sale! This weeks special...GMJ - see Tony for details!

by gorams77 on Jan 13, 2009 4:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Nate Davis intrigues me.

And you could probably get him in the 3rd round. He’s little but he can make NFL throws and he’s agile and quick enough to survive behind our re-building offensive line.

A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!

by Tackle Box on Jan 13, 2009 10:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I always tell my friends

All you need is an offensive line and any quarterback can look great again.

I’m all for Bulger to stay. Just give him a line to protect him

by Option27 on Jan 13, 2009 10:06 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

There's some truth to this, but I wouldn't go too far

Bulger did play reasonably well in his last four games, when the offensive line was actually starting to gel (and spending a lot more time creating run lanes for Steven Jackson):

Dec 7 (@ ARI): 22-37, 228 yds, 6.2 yd/attempt, 1 INT, 1 TD (rating:75.1)
Dec 14 (SEA): 19-32, 207 yds, 6.5 yd/attempt, 0 INT, 1 TD (rating: 88.9)
Dec 21 (SFO): 19-36, 227 yds, 6.3 yd/attempt, 1 INT, 1 TD (rating: 70.0)
Dec 28 (@ ATL): 19-32, 230 yds, 7.2 yd/attempt, 0 INT, 1 TD (rating: 91.9)

He was sacked 8 times in those four games, a not-unreasonable number, and he managed an 80.9 passer rating with a 4:2 TD:INT ratio.

To my mind, that’s about as good as Bulger 2.0 can play, no matter who he plays behind and who you give him to throw to. And that’s a far cry from his years of being “great.”

For argument’s sake, though, with the right team this level of quarterback play will get you to the playoffs:

Ben Roethlisberger (season): 80.1 rating, 17 TDs/ 15 INTs
Kerry Collins (season): 80.2 rating, 12 TDs/ 7 INTs
Joe Flacco (season): 80.3 rating, 14 TDs/ 12 INTs
Marc Bulger 2.0 (last 4): 80.9 rating, 4TDs/ 2 INTs
Jake Delhomme (season): 84.7 rating, 15 TDs/ 12 INTs
Eli Manning (season): 86.4 rating, 21 TDs/ 10 INTs
Matt Ryan (season): 87.7 rating, 16 TDs/ 11 INTs

This list represents the middle of the bell curve of starting QBs by rating: the best is Ryan, who ranked #11; Roethlisberger, while only seven points worse, ranked 24th. The things all of these QBs have in common (if you hadn’t already guessed it) is a massive, dual-threat running game, and an above-average defense, which allows the QB extra room for stalled drives … as long as they limit turnovers, they keep their team in the game. And despite his overall shoddy play the last couple of years, his turnover numbers have not been obscene.

So, since we’re stuck with Bulger, I can see how there might be some logic in some of the whispered Rams’ plans:
1. Hire Spagnuolo
2. Draft O-line, D-middle (tackle or MLB), Running Back
3. Convert to power run, introduce secondary threat

All that said, I really believe this is Bulger’s absolute upside. He’s been forcefully regressed to the mean. We do have a pressing need for an heir apparent. And, perhaps a need for a fourth pick in those first three rounds.

"Attaway to stomp 'em. Stomp the piss out of 'em. Stomp 'em when they're down. Kick 'em and stomp 'em. Attaway to go boys. Pound that old Budweiser into you and go get them tomorrow." -- Joe Schultz

by taiko on Jan 13, 2009 11:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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