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Rams head coaching candidate odds

Obsessive? Yeah, sort of, but I wanted to try and squeeze something clearer out of the NFL head coaching melee. There's not anything new related to the Rams coaching search, but if we piece together news items from other teams' coaching searches we can discern a little clearer picture. So what do we know?

The Rams, Lions and the Jets are, for now, the only teams still hunting for a head coach after the coveted Denver domino fell last night. For the Lions, it's reportedly down to Titans DC Jim Schwartz, who had a second interview yesterday, and Giants DC Steve Spagnuolo, according to Fox Sports' Jay Glazer. However, Chargers DC Ron Rivera is reportedly in the mix as well. Schwartz, however, will meet with the Lions owner today, and the team is expected to finish the process by the end of the week.The Lions are also planning to bring in Spagnuolo for a second interview, but as far as I can tell, no date has been set, which might mean they're waiting on the results of the latest Schwartz interview with the owner.

What's this mean for the Rams? Hold on, one more situation to look at in New York (Jersey really).

We covered the Jets this morning, but it's worth pointing out that Rex Ryan and Brian Schottenheimer are widely believed to be the leading candidates, and according to this report, the Jets told Ryan that they'd be willing to wait until after the Super Bowl "if that's what it takes." If Ryan and Schottenheimer are really the Jets top two candidates, then they can wait. The Rams and the Lions can't, not really anyway given the state of each franchise.

So if we put stock in the various coaching reports, the odds favor Schwartz in Detroit and Ryan or Schottenheimer in NY. That increases the odds of Spagnuolo (remember the 4-3 defense thing) as a leading candidate for the Rams. If the Lions make their decision this week, the picture will become very clear and a Rams decision should come soon thereafter, I'd venture to say. The odds of Rex Ryan coaching the Rams have decreased some given the Rams' stated desire to have a coach in place by the Senior Bowl, which happens on Saturday, January 24, and the Jets' interest in Ryan.

So here are my unofficial, ham-fisted handicapping of the odds for the next Rams head coach, with only the candidates I see as the most likely contenders, sorry Ray Sherman.

Leslie Frazier: 70% He interviews again, with ownership, tomorrow. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if there's news shortly thereafter. Just a gut feeling, but I think this will be the guy.

Steve Spagnuolo: 60% Again, watch what happens with Detroit, but the Jets interest seems to make him a third choice for that job. If he's going to get an offer, it'll come this week from the Rams or the Lions. Don't overlook this tidbit from Jim Thomas in the Post-Disaptch today, "Rams general manager Billy Devaney has known Spagnuolo for years and considers him a good friend."

Jim Haslett: 50% As the Rams meet the other candidates and still find many to be available, Haslett's chances are sinking fast. Maybe it was the Martz thing, but with new management the franchise needs to go in a markedly new direction. Not like last time with Linehan, when the front office was still a huge handicap.

Rex Ryan: 40% I think his price tag has shot up exponentially with Baltimore's win over Tennessee. Reports of the Jets willing to wait on his team's postseason run really hurts the Rams chances of moving ahead sooner rather than later.

Mystery Canidate: 35% Remember the mystery candidate mentioned in the PD. Who is it? Only the shadow and Billy Devaney know, but if he's on the radar he's obviously someone Devaney (or someone else in the organization) is familiar with, which gives him a shot.

Obviously, I'm not much of an odds maker, partly due to my very rudimentary grasp of mathematics, so feel free to handicap the race as you see fit.

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Comments

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Mystery Candidate

I think that the mystery candidate is Brian Billick. He has been conspicuously absent from the Rams coaching search. I think they wanted to keep it quiet for whatever reason. Brian Billick is the next coach of your St. Louis Rams in my opinion.

October 26; the countdown has begun.

by Marmie is the best on Jan 12, 2009 12:53 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Nope, it's Jason Garrett.

At least, according to Bill Coats.

Not sure if all would agree, but I think he’d be lucky to escape that trainwreck in Dallas and coach somewhere else. Even here.

"Attaway to stomp 'em. Stomp the piss out of 'em. Stomp 'em when they're down. Kick 'em and stomp 'em. Attaway to go boys. Pound that old Budweiser into you and go get them tomorrow." -- Joe Schultz

by taiko on Jan 12, 2009 2:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think (hope) you rate Frazier too high.

Honesly, I don’t like him. Don’t really know him, but anytime someone gets named “The Next (fill-in the blank)” we’re almost always disappointed.

I hate that crap.

But, I now think Spags is the front-runner. Not only was there a piece about him by Thomas, but Burwell wrote up a piece on him as well.

A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!

by Tackle Box on Jan 12, 2009 1:13 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

One more job just opened

Tony Dungy announces his retirement.

A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!

by Tackle Box on Jan 12, 2009 2:01 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Do they have a coach in waiting? I thought I remembered there being an heir apparent in the ranks.

"Attaway to stomp 'em. Stomp the piss out of 'em. Stomp 'em when they're down. Kick 'em and stomp 'em. Attaway to go boys. Pound that old Budweiser into you and go get them tomorrow." -- Joe Schultz

by taiko on Jan 12, 2009 2:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

answered my own question: current ‘associate head coach’ and former HC of Wake Forest Jim Caldwell

"Attaway to stomp 'em. Stomp the piss out of 'em. Stomp 'em when they're down. Kick 'em and stomp 'em. Attaway to go boys. Pound that old Budweiser into you and go get them tomorrow." -- Joe Schultz

by taiko on Jan 12, 2009 2:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

like the shadow reference

by PSKPSE on Jan 13, 2009 3:29 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

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