Buffalo is now the class of the division and the team with a full head of steam. They made some solid long term moves that appear to be paying off sooner than expected. I think the division is theirs to win or lose and they’re our biggest threat.

New York has issues and I believe it’s Mangini’s last year. I thought pulling in Favre was a desperation move on their part and, at 3-3, is not paying off. Other than Arizona who is questionable, their wins have been against Miami and Cincinnati. That’s not lighting up the gridiron, in my humble opinion.

Miami, at 2-4, is a flash in the pan. Their “Wildcat Play” (RB Ronnie Brown lining up at QB) was only going to trick teams for so long, and that seems to be the only way they can win. Granted, they beat NE, but I don’t see that happening again; I think Belichick will work to embarrass the heck out of them.

Here’s the way things look:

Laurence Maroney – IR’d, out for the season
Sammy Morris – Hurt in Denver game, status unknown
LaMont Jordan – Did not suit up for Denver, not sure when he’ll return
Kevin Faulk – Healthy, but more of a third down back. I don’t think he could pound the rock for the whole game, he’s 32
BenJarvus Green-Ellis – UFA promoted from the practice squad for Denver game
Heath Evans – FB who usually doesn’t see a lot of action

Crossing my fingers, I’m hoping LaMont Jordan is healthy for this game. He’s very difficult to stop, but has been primarly used in the second half when the defense is worn out. I don’t have a good feel for his ability to hang tough for the whole game. I’d predict you will see BenJarvus Green-Ellis start with support from Faulk. If Morris is healthy, I’ll do cart wheels because he’s my favorite RB.

This is huge. Rodney may have been aging and thoughts were he would retire when his contract was up (end of 2008), but he’s considered an on-field coach in what is arguably one of the most complex defenses in the NFL; they switch up their coverage schemes based on the team. Nothing is standard.

Backup SS Brandon Meriweather will, most likely, assume the role of starter with James Sanders at FS. CB/S Lewis Sanders could see some time in this area as well, but we will be missing that on-field leadership so prevalent with Harrison. What veteran ILB Tedy Bruschi does for the LBs, Rodney did for the DBs. A big loss for us not only in pass protection, but line of scrimmage work; Harrison was key here.

I am a HUGE Jerod Mayo fan and think his 10th overall drafting was key for the Pats. It will come as no surprise that our LB corp was aging and Mayo brings some much needed youth to the gang of tacklers. The question is, “Does he have the football IQ to cut it in Belichick’s ever varying defensive schemes?” Most times, we do run a traditional 3-4 with Mayo sharing ILB duties with Bruschi. In obvious passing situations, Belichick will employ nickel or dime packages; in almost all of these situations, Mayo is on the field. I’ve never liked the term “starter”, preferring to track percentage of snaps on the field and Mayo always tops the list. For a rookie, that’s quite an accomplishment in the Patriots’ system; statistics have shown it takes a few years for players to establish themselves in this defense.

While Mayo is today playing beside Bruschi, I think your assumption is correct: he will eventually be THE ILB in the system. He’s got a great mentor in Bruschi and I’m sure he’ll only get better with more reps under his belt.

Most of the time, the Pats run a fairly straightforward 3-4 (3 down linemen, 4 LBs, 4 DBs). They will, on occasion, switch up to 4-3, nickel and dime packages, and something Belichick is calling a “Speed Package” (1 down lineman, 4 LBs, 6 DBs). Refocusing on the 3-4, it is traditionally weaker on the run than a 4-3, for instance; there’s only 3 down linemen to handle 4 or 5 OLs, leaving LBs for support work.

The weak spot, IMO, is more strategic and intended than a serious problem. The Pats have been torched against the pass this year and I believe have chosen to focus heavily on rival team’s aerial assaults (Broncos’ QB Jay Cutler was shutdown Monday night). This means OLBs Mike Vrabel and Adalius Thomas will adopt zone coverage responsibility in favor of assisting the DLs. We seem to do well against runs up the middle, but are soft on the corners because of the OLB’s bias towards the pass. I’m ok with that as long as we get some support from the CBs.

When looking at NFL stats for defense against the run, you are correct in that the Pats are 19th. However, playing with the sorting criteria a bit will yield some interesting results. For example: 8th in TDs scored against them with 4, 9th in points per game with 19.3, and 6th in first downs with 29. Not great but not horrible.

There’s 8 left from the 2001 roster:

QB Tom Brady
ILB Tedy Bruschi
RB Kevin Faulk
LB Larry Izzo
T Matt Light
OL Stephen Neal
DT Richard Seymour
OLB Mike Vrabel

For coaches it looks like:

HC Bill Belichick
DL Pepper Johnson
S&C Mike Woicik
OL Dante Scarnecchia
ST Brad Seely